Poll: Should I stay or should I go now

[dayzero]

In general this discussion sounds a lot like the discussion constantly going on in my head, but it's nice to see validation of the two sides from different people/perspectives. Thanks again. The commitment is basically annual (large payouts at the year markers), so I will probably stick around for at least the first year and see where things stand at that time. But only so long as there is a reasonable balance between work and play, if work starts to encroach significantly then I will eject.

I think it's too risky to assume a profit from home sale without actually achieving it.
I recommend you sell the house now and lock-in your assumed selling price. If you get that value and actually buy a lower value home, then seriously consider retiring once you have invested profit from downsizing home.

How sure are you that the housing market in your area will not collapse in the next two years? If you are sure your house’s value will be maintained, stay and use the two years to throttle back, monitor expenses, and formulate a plan.

This is a big risk factor. I'm not assuming a big profit but I am assuming the value doesn't collapse in the next two years. Like most everyone else in our super HCOL area, our house is a large part of our balance sheet (still smaller than our portfolio value though, by half). My portfolio is positioned fairly defensively, but my housing situation is not. It would be a shame to collect the two more years at work only to have it largely offset by a housing collapse. Might make sense to start doing something about this sooner rather than later. Perhaps in the spring we'll make a move.

 

[Lagniappe]

Zeroday, I am in a very similar position to you. 30 months = $1.6 Million in incremental savings, or a 25% increase in portfolio. I am older than you at 52, and have a higher current portfolio so slightly tougher tradeoff. But I like what I am doing (for probably only the second time in my career). I'm not sure if I like it more because it is cool work (had that before but was still miserable) or because I know I can walk at any time so just don't pay attention to the normal nonsense.

I chose to attack it in stages. I am definitely staying 6 more months, and have planned a vacation at that time, to re-assess the situation. The next big payout comes a year after that, so will look at my health, my happiness with my job, and my ability to pursue my hobbies at that time.

In the meantime, I have started doing things to make forward progress.

1. I moved to my FIRE location, and downsized to a smaller apartment near work for when I am there. Every day here feels like a vacation.

2. I am using the time to get my finances in order
- I am shifting my asset allocation (slowly) to 65/35 from 75/25.
- I am investigating options for converting my 401K to our pension plan - a one time option upon leaving.
- I am investigating consolidating and/or diversifying brokerages. Right now I am 80% at Vanguard, with straggling 401K's at Wells Fargo, Schwab and Fidelity. Likely to either move all to Vanguard or split between Vanguard and Fidelity.
- I am deferring a small percentage of my compensation, so I have an income of sorts for my first ten years of FIRE, before my motley collection of small pensions kick in at 65.

3. I am spending time exploring and developing non w*rk activities. Traveling, reading, language study, entertaining, even sleeping all take priority now over one last meeting or report review.

The things above keep me motivated and feeling like I am still working toward the RE part of fire, while I continue to w*rk every day. I would suggest you make a list of what would need to be done to realize your dream, and start tackling the practical matters a bit at a time. Before you know it, you will be ready to move forward.

Best of luck to you.

 

[Midpack]

Congrats. You made it. You won the game. You are certain you can live happily and well with a 2.5% WR.

Go have fun.

p.s. Your biggest risks/unknowns are health and mortality. Why gamble? Go have fun.

Retiring early is a gamble too, this cuts both ways. The OP is still going to be relatively very young in two years, with statistically 40-50 years to "have fun"...

 

[ncbill]

And a kid still at home.

I'm still sweating over paying for my youngest heading off to college next fall.

The extra money is so much of a boost to total net worth (and subsequent annual cash flow) I can't imagine leaving that much on the table.

Most of us would be lucky to get 15% of that after working another two years.

 

[Scuba]

Zeroday, I am in a very similar position to you. 30 months = $1.6 Million in incremental savings, or a 25% increase in portfolio. I am older than you at 52, and have a higher current portfolio so slightly tougher tradeoff. But I like what I am doing (for probably only the second time in my career). I'm not sure if I like it more because it is cool work (had that before but was still miserable) or because I know I can walk at any time so just don't pay attention to the normal nonsense.

I chose to attack it in stages. I am definitely staying 6 more months, and have planned a vacation at that time, to re-assess the situation. The next big payout comes a year after that, so will look at my health, my happiness with my job, and my ability to pursue my hobbies at that time.

In the meantime, I have started doing things to make forward progress.

1. I moved to my FIRE location, and downsized to a smaller apartment near work for when I am there. Every day here feels like a vacation.

2. I am using the time to get my finances in order
- I am shifting my asset allocation (slowly) to 65/35 from 75/25.
- I am investigating options for converting my 401K to our pension plan - a one time option upon leaving.
- I am investigating consolidating and/or diversifying brokerages. Right now I am 80% at Vanguard, with straggling 401K's at Wells Fargo, Schwab and Fidelity. Likely to either move all to Vanguard or split between Vanguard and Fidelity.
- I am deferring a small percentage of my compensation, so I have an income of sorts for my first ten years of FIRE, before my motley collection of small pensions kick in at 65.

3. I am spending time exploring and developing non w*rk activities. Traveling, reading, language study, entertaining, even sleeping all take priority now over one last meeting or report review.

The things above keep me motivated and feeling like I am still working toward the RE part of fire, while I continue to w*rk every day. I would suggest you make a list of what would need to be done to realize your dream, and start tackling the practical matters a bit at a time. Before you know it, you will be ready to move forward.

Best of luck to you.

Great advice! Time passes quickly and if you spend the next 1-2 years doing practical things that move you towards ER, it will make the waiting to ER more bearable.

 

[Enuff2Eat]

I think you still love the money. Sometime people are in denial but making money make them happy and it can be very addictive. That's why many of my colleague refuse to retire. I don't think anything wrong with it.

IMO, people are even more greedy when money is too easy to make which meant they will have "another year syndrome" ... yes for a long time. You will be ok either way.

The question is do you value time or money? Time then ER, money then work a few more years.

 

[Yarnstormer]

Stick around, take a vacation maybe, but get the money. Maybe go ahead and begin looking for that downsize house - that can take some time and considering your hourly rate time is good!

 

[Jaded salami]

This is the best advice I can give.

Listen to your wife, and go now.

You will probably regret the loss of two years of adventure more than the money almost for certain.

 

[Spanky]

My vote is go now if you think that you have enough and start your adventure. It's very difficult to decide if you have enough despite how much money that you have, however.

 

[NomDeER]

My vote is to stay. It's a big payoff for two years, and you won't have that opportunity again. Also, the health insurance situation might become a little clearer by then. I'm trying to plan for ER and am finding it almost impossible because I have no idea how much health insurance will cost me or whether I'll even be able to get insurance. You might not have a problem getting insurance in your early forties, but it probably won't be cheap. How much is it going to cost you when you're 60? If you can't get insurance at that age, will you have enough to cover the costs of major injury or illness?

Having said that, I get the frustration. I would really like to retire now. Given that I'm going to be out of job soon, it is even more tempting. Instead, I'm looking for a job. Mostly because I just don't have confidence that the health insurance situation will make it possible for my money to last at even a modest standard of living.

 

[euro]

I'm in the life is uncertain camp. You have more than enough now, why run the risk of an early death or disability that could rob you or your DW of retirement years?

I'm later to the thread here but this is my vote too: go

 

[dayzero]

Update: Going.

OP here. I put in my notice yesterday. Going at the end of the month.

I have some part-time consulting work lined up so I can't really say I'm ERing, but I will have the necessary flexibility to do what I want with my extracurriculars. No more face time at the office.

Thanks for all your thoughts and advice. It would be easier to play it safe and stay but at the end of the day my marginal utility of time is higher than my marginal utility of wealth.

I still have to get through the next month, it's possible they try throwing money or promotions at me to stay, not sure I could withstand that.

 

[Sunset]

OP - if you decide to go now, please submit my name for the 2 years, I will UN-FIRE for $1,000,000 per year.

So really my vote is stay, that is a huge amount, and you will be able to take some trips (super nice expensive trips) during the next 2 years, which will make it feel more worth while.

 

[Mdlerth]

OP here. I put in my notice yesterday. Going at the end of the month.

I still have to get through the next month, it's possible they try throwing money or promotions at me to stay, not sure I could withstand that.

1.2 million didn't work. I'm trying to comprehend how much more it would take to change your mind.

I'm a little surprised by your decision, but only a little. You were in the catbird seat and which ever way you chose, it wouldn't have been wrong.

Anyhow, enjoy your new life. I can't wait until it's my turn!

 

[ugeauxgirl]

OP here. I put in my notice yesterday. Going at the end of the month.

You are my hero- you geaux. Carpe Diem-

 

[thumbs]

Congratulations zeroday!

 

[flintnational]

Congratulations. Your hard work and disciplined saving paid off. Enjoy.

FN

 

[Spanky]

Congrats on your decision and never look back.

 

[RunningBum]

Best of luck! I hope you enjoy and make great use of your bonus time.

 

[pb4uski]

In general this discussion sounds a lot like the discussion constantly going on in my head, but it's nice to see validation of the two sides from different people/perspectives. Thanks again. The commitment is basically annual (large payouts at the year markers), so I will probably stick around for at least the first year and see where things stand at that time. But only so long as there is a reasonable balance between work and play, if work starts to encroach significantly then I will eject. ....

OP here. I put in my notice yesterday. Going at the end of the month. ...

Congratulations! I'm curious... what happened in the 4 days in between your posts that changed your mind?

 

[travelover]

Congratulations. You've won the game any way you slice it. Please hang around and let us know how it goes.

 

[dayzero]

Congratulations! I'm curious... what happened in the 4 days in between your posts that changed your mind?

Putting this consulting thing together sealed it for me- just made the transition a little less scary.

 

[Terhathum123]

Putting this consulting thing together sealed it for me- just made the transition a little less scary.

Any updates here? Did you actually go through with it? I'm in a scenario very similar to yours, zeroday.

 

[Amethyst]

In addition: Was there trouble? And if you went, was it double?

Any updates here? Did you actually go through with it? I'm in a scenario very similar to yours, zeroday.

 

[The Onceler]

Good move I wish I️ had the guts to do it now (56). If you are triathletes maybe a Kona legacy bid is in reach if not a direct bid. Triathletes are notoriously awesome at the higher age groups as you know but as one ages life throws athletic curves and fastballs you don’t see in youth! Plus one’s feeling of invincibility rapidly diminishes. I️ think the most difficult part is when you will your body to do something it knows how to do but cannot quite do any more. But I️t is still all good. As they say the saddest words in English are what might have been. As Jimmy Jazz would say you are in control. Good luck!