Poll: Should I stay or should I go now

[Midpack]

Things I'm not scared of - downsizing my lifestyle if necessary or even moving to a cheaper country. Healthcare can only bankrupt you in the good old USA.

Which countries will allow you to use their public healthcare? I know some/many other countries won’t allow US citizens to use their public healthcare, some even require proof of other health insurance to allow you to stay more than a few weeks/months. Many won’t allow you to change citizenship easily either. Or maybe you were planning on private insurance in another country, that could be cheaper if you’re lucky enough to be healthier than average...

 

[Dash man]

It all depends what you're scared of. Me, I'm scared of dying rich, it means I wasted too much of the most precious and scare commodity we have - time. Things I'm not scared of - downsizing my lifestyle if necessary or even moving to a cheaper country. Healthcare can only bankrupt you in the good old USA.

You're assuming you're in a condition to be able to make those changes. Life is full of surprises and many are sudden changes where if you're not prepared you're screwed.
There's no fear in dying rich because it has little to do with making valuable use of the precious time we have here. Being ill and poor and not being able to get the care I may need in an emergency scares me. So does being alone.

 

[ownyourfuture]

Disregard the poll & go now!
You can't take it with you.

I worked with a guy who could've easily retired at 62, or even earlier, but he didn't want to 'leave any Social Security on the table' so he stayed till he was 66.

He was dead a couple years later

 

[Mdlerth]

Disregard the poll & go now!
You can't take it with you.

I worked with a guy who could've easily retired at 62, or even earlier, but he didn't want to 'leave any Social Security on the table' so he stayed till he was 66.

He was dead a couple years later

If OP were 62, I would second this counsel. But he's only ~42; totally different risk profile.

 

[Midpack]

Disregard the poll & go now!
You can't take it with you.

I worked with a guy who could've easily retired at 62, or even earlier, but he didn't want to 'leave any Social Security on the table' so he stayed till he was 66.

He was dead a couple years later

So on the off chance he might die early, the OP should "go now?" That doesn't make any sense. You might get hit by a bus at age 21 too (it happens), so why work and save at all?

Most people would go with the odds, better than 50% of US males will live past 76 and US women past 81 years old.

 

[dayzero]

Which countries will allow you to use their public healthcare? I know some/many other countries won’t allow US citizens to use their public healthcare, some even require proof of other health insurance to allow you to stay more than a few weeks/months. Many won’t allow you to change citizenship easily either. Or maybe you were planning on private insurance in another country, that could be cheaper if you’re lucky enough to be healthier than average...

Don't need to use their public healthcare. I have a friend that moved to France with his family a few years back, unfortunately recently went through full scale cancer treatment, chemo, surgeries, very bad. $5k no insurance

My wife has European citizenship so not an issue, but I believe you can also buy your residency through the various golden visa programs.

 

[dayzero]

You're assuming you're in a condition to be able to make those changes. Life is full of surprises and many are sudden changes where if you're not prepared you're screwed.
There's no fear in dying rich because it has little to do with making valuable use of the precious time we have here. Being ill and poor and not being able to get the care I may need in an emergency scares me. So does being alone.

Very true. Thanks.

 

[RunningBum]

So on the off chance he might die early, the OP should "go now?" That doesn't make any sense. You might get hit by a bus at age 21 too (it happens), so why work and save at all?

Most people would go with the odds, better than 50% of US males will live past 76 and US women past 81 years old.

Well, the OP has worked and saved, a lot, plenty to make it assuming the budget is accurate enough and has some contingency.

Here's a question. If there was not the extra $1.2M on the table for the next 2 years, would you say the OP is good to go? I'd say yes, which means it is a valid option to leave now. There's no comparison with a broke 21 year old. We are talking about someone who is winning the game by a large margin and would probably only be padding the score at this point, barring a disaster that there's no guarantee he can ever save enough for.

Another question--if there were $600K available for each of as many more years as the OP wants to work, when would you say it's time to stop? At some point enough is enough, right? Maybe the OP feels that time as already come.

For my own case, I'd probably stay because I'm conservative and I'd appreciate both the buffer to handle many more uncertainties, and the extra luxuries it'd bring. It also sounds like a limited time opportunity so I'd take it while I can, and know there is an endpoint, though for all we know there could be another opportunity for a OMY $1M after 2 years. But I don't know how important the time now is for the OP. He may be able to still be very active in his pursuits for another 20 years, but these are probably prime years.

 

[dayzero]

Well, the OP has worked and saved, a lot, plenty to make it assuming the budget is accurate enough and has some contingency.

Here's a question. If there was not the extra $1.2M on the table for the next 2 years, would you say the OP is good to go? I'd say yes, which means it is a valid option to leave now. There's no comparison with a broke 21 year old. We are talking about someone who is winning the game by a large margin and would probably only be padding the score at this point, barring a disaster that there's no guarantee he can ever save enough for.

Another question--if there were $600K available for each of as many more years as the OP wants to work, when would you say it's time to stop? At some point enough is enough, right? Maybe the OP feels that time as already come.

For my own case, I'd probably stay because I'm conservative and I'd appreciate both the buffer to handle many more uncertainties, and the extra luxuries it'd bring. It also sounds like a limited time opportunity so I'd take it while I can, and know there is an endpoint, though for all we know there could be another opportunity for a OMY $1M after 2 years. But I don't know how important the time now is for the OP. He may be able to still be very active in his pursuits for another 20 years, but these are probably prime years.

Excellent summary and food for thought. Thanks.

 

[socca]

If you had a part-time gig already lined up and ready-to-roll with the prospect of a reliable income, I'd say 'go'. Part-time/self-employed is an entirely different animal than the full time grind. I was able to bail at age 43 because I could work in the family biz while pursuing my non-renumerative passions. Since this doesn't appear to be the case, my vote is 'stay'.

 

[Ready]

There is no way I would walk away from $1.2M for two years of work while still in my forties. Even at a 3% WR, the extra $1.2M would give you an extra $36K per year in spending money for the next 40-50 years. That's a huge amount of money to walk away from given that you don't hate the job and it's only two years.

I suspect you already knew this when you started the thread though, and just needed to hear it from others to reassure yourself.

 

[ocean view]

My gut reaction is go now, but I have to ask, do you have to make a two-year commitment? Why not continue for 6 months and then reassess every 6 months? Life can change quickly and maybe in 6 months you'll be more ready to pull the plug. Maybe not. But I don't recall you saying you had to make a firm 2-year commitment.

 

[retired1]

Going with head, it seems it'd be worth staying 2 more years. 2 years is not a very long time considering you are still in 40s.

 

[MarieIG]

Well, I think almost everything has been said but my take is:

a) you have an excellent gig right now which you will not be able to get this few years down the line;

b) I suspect that you are under estimating your expenses (I think high earners do this more than someone who already has a very low cost of living built in), and are not taking into consideration major hits (I just dropped a bundle at the vet yesterday), i.e. your kid gets into medical school, a loved one has grandchild, child, spouse has special needs outside the scope of what is covered and you could make a huge difference to their quality of life (I just dropped $6,500 at the vet yesterday / my relative spends a fortune on out of pocket medical care for his wife which has given her phenomenal results, but which is not covered by insurance);

c) Part time work may seem nice from a distance, but part time work for a tiny fraction of your "hourly" rate now can get old fast. Under your circumstances, part time work should not be something that you depend on in the future, since you earn now in months what you will be able to earn later over years. If you are looking at part time work, do it as something you can walk away from the minutes it ticks you off;

d) By your post you have been engaging in your "sport" for years and will continue to for years. I doubt at your age now you are going to be the top in your field;

e) That stuff about "prime years"? Do you really think at 60 you are going to want to sit in rocking chair, and that your 60 year old self is not going to want to spend money pursuing pleasurable pursuits?

f) You will still be a very early retiree in two years.

 

[Midpack]

Well, I think almost everything has been said but my take is:

a) you have an excellent gig right now which you will not be able to get this few years down the line;

b) I suspect that you are under estimating your expenses (I think high earners do this more than someone who already has a very low cost of living built in, and are not taking into consideration major hits (I just dropped $6,500 at the vet yesterday);

c) Part time work may seem nice from a distance, but part time work for a tiny fraction of your "hourly" rate now can get old fast. Under your circumstances, part time work should not be something that you depend on in the future, since you earn now in months what you will be able to earn later over years. If you are looking at part time work, do it as something you can walk away from the minutes it ticks you off;

d) By your post you have been engaging in your "sport" for years and will continue to for years. I doubt at your age now you are going to be the top in your field;

e) That stuff about "prime years"? Do you really think at 60 you are going to want to sit in rocking chair, and that your 60 year old self is not going to want to spend money pursuing pleasurable pursuits?

f) You will still be a very early retiree in two years.

Great post IMO.

 

[Car-Guy]

Normally, I'd say retire as early as you can, but considering your younger age, current NW, and the money on the table for just two more years, I'd stay. Particularly since you don't hate your job. Maybe take some extended vacation time or longer weekends whenever possible to "play" for the next two years.

 

[Luck_Club]

Keep going until Diminishing returns kick in

Well, the OP has worked and saved, a lot, plenty to make it assuming the budget is accurate enough and has some contingency.

Another question--if there were $600K available for each of as many more years as the OP wants to work, when would you say it's time to stop? At some point enough is enough, right? Maybe the OP feels that time as already come.

The answer to when is enough enough? Is when your extra savings from 1 more year produces a small percentage increase in your total nest egg.

$1.2 million is nearly 33% increase in his nest egg.

Someone making $100K with a $3.8 million nest egg only increases the nest egg by 2%. However, if your nest egg is only $500K 1 more year produces a 20% increase, might be worth sticking around a few more years.

Any 40 year old who came on this board and had a low income say $50K and said they had a $500K nest egg, would be advised to keep going a couple more years. Especially if they could make $150K each year for the next 2 years.

Give me a chance at 50 to increase my nest egg 33% in two years, and I'd keep going too. 60 maybe not, but most likely yes.

 

[mrfeh]

For those of you saying "stay two more years", if the same situation presents itself then, would you again say "stay two more years"? This is potentially the start of a case of OMY.

 

[Dash man]

For those of you saying "stay two more years", if the same situation presents itself then, would you again say "stay two more years"? This is potentially the start of a case of OMY.

I disagree at his young age. There is a huge difference with these extra two years and he has a lot of years to plan ahead for.

 

[MarieIG]

For those of you saying "stay two more years", if the same situation presents itself then, would you again say "stay two more years"? This is potentially the start of a case of OMY.

The point specifically was, that it will not. I would however like OP to use these two years to really get his financial house in order.

 

[Pbkmaine]

How sure are you that the housing market in your area will not collapse in the next two years? If you are sure your house’s value will be maintained, stay and use the two years to throttle back, monitor expenses, and formulate a plan.

 

[gayl]

Had I stayed 3 more years, my DBP with 4% COLA max would have increased 25% ..... don't regret leaving & working hobby job. ..... money isn't everything

My mistake was starting to think of the hobby job as regular job which can be a pitfall for those leaving at 50 ..... no idea about those leaving in 40s (except friend who went to work at the ski lifts during the season-- he's happier than he ever was in social work)

 

[Music Lover]

I'm curious what the sport is if you're willing to disclose.

My guess is triathlons.

The OP is early 40's...I say stay, even for just another year. Take advantage of all the leave and vacation that's available. Maybe see if there is an option to take a few weeks or a month of unpaid leave 2 or 3 times a year that coincides with your passion. If that option is available, then taking off a month to train full time close to an event might be enough of a compromise.

If he was in his 60's, I'd say go now.

 

[Cayman]

Congrats. You made it. You won the game. You are certain you can live happily and well with a 2.5% WR.

Go have fun.

p.s. Your biggest risks/unknowns are health and mortality. Why gamble? Go have fun.

 

[lwp2017]

My guess is competitive Highlander sports like caber tossing.

I do understand health concern. I'm only 55 and can't enjoy my favorite outdoor past time due to knee pain from an injury last year. I had surgery this spring with only limited improvement. Your cartilage does get brittle and tears easier with age.
I would trade a million in my portfolio to be 45 again.

I think it's too risky to assume a profit from home sale without actually achieving it.
I recommend you sell the house now and lock-in your assumed selling price. If you get that value and actually buy a lower value home, then seriously consider retiring once you have invested profit from downsizing home.



Also does the $75K/yr consider one-time large expenses such as kids' wedding expenses, roof replacement, new carpet, furniture upgrades, etc?

A 40 yr retirement period will need a healthy rainy-day fund for the unknown-unknown expenses.

Good luck!