Poll:Where is the US economy headed in the next 10-15 years?

[CaliforniaMan]

A big part of what we will be able to withdraw from our portfolio will be based on the big unknown of the future US economy.

We can all probably agree that the 20th century was a relatively good one for the US compared to the other developed countries of the world. In spite of two world wars, the great depression, and all the other struggles during that century, the US came out pretty well, and many would say on top.

Now we are into the second decade of a new century, and my question is what general direction do you think the US economy is headed long term, or at least over say over the next 10 to 15 or 20 years.

I am sure there are a lot of people here who have given some thought to this, myself included. Of course NONE of us can KNOW, but that is not the question. Rather, based on your experience and insight what is your current judgement. Is there a consensus or are we spread all over on this issue?

 

[REWahoo]

OK everyone, get out those crystal balls and start gazing!

 

[W2R]

Now we are into the second decade of a new century, and my question is what general direction do you think the US economy is headed long term, or at least over say over the next 10 to 15 or 20 years.

My crystal ball says,

Reply hazy try again

. Oh no, wait. That was my Magic 8 Ball...

 

[aja8888]

Now we are into the second decade of a new century, and my question is what general direction do you think the US economy is headed long term, or at least over say over the next 10 to 15 or 20 years.

Unless the asteroid shows up, the economy will be headed down the road influenced by magnetic north.

 

[Alan]

At the same point of time a 100 years ago Britain was at the height of its prosperity. Over the rest of the century they went through 2 world wars, bankrupting the country, rationing in place until 1955, IMF bailout in the 1970's (1975?).

At the end of the century, the average Briton was 10 times better off. (sorry, can't remember where I read those figures)

So, I have few fears for the economic future in the USA (or the UK).

 

[Independent]

Rather, based on your experience and insight what is your current judgement. Is there a consensus or are we spread all over on this issue?

I'm not sure how to read the options.

For example "Worse than the average of the 20th, but still OK"

Does that mean absolute living standards will be lower than they were in the 20th century?

Or, does it mean they will be higher, but the rate of improvement will be lower?

I voted, but I assumed the second.

 

[panacea]

If you're going to give me up to 20 years, I'm voting for about the same... reversion to the mean.

 

[Ticker]

In my world, I see several signs: (pls note that these are my LOCAL observations)

My job is more secure than ever, and our sales are much higher than last year
My 401-k balance is higher than previous years
Traffic is horrible, the roads, including the interstate, are consistently jammed. That means that companies are shipping goods, and folks are traveling, either to work, shop or vacation.
The stores are all crowded and folks are spending money
The car dealers have cleared off their lots
Gas prices have dropped, a trend that I think will continue
Inflation seems relatively benign
The stock market is roaring, which I believe to be a precursor to the future economy
Repos have dropped, and real estate, including new construction, has new life

My opinion is that the next 10 years should continue to be good, and I am preparing to ER based upon these trends.

I hope I am correct.

 

[Dawg52]

Me.....being the indecisive one that I am, voted for the 3rd one. Not good but not horrible.

 

[HF63]

At some point wages need to increase for the economy to maintain its momentum.

Wall street likes to cheer when profits are up and wages are down or kept to bare minimum.

Few more years like the past 6 years and most folks will not be able maintain the purchasing power.

 

[ripper1]

The next 10 years will be better than the last 10.

 

[braumeister]

If you're going to give me up to 20 years, I'm voting for about the same... reversion to the mean.

Seems to me I heard that this time is different.

 

[MichaelB]

I'm guessing we will have a nice period of strong economic growth in our future, and it will begin soon after the next big asteroid collision.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have not voted because I am not sure of the intent of the choices.

I think that the standard of living and the US economy will continue to grow in the forseeable future, but the rate of increase will not be as high as that of the past, and definitely not matching that of developing countries.

 

[obgyn65]

I tend to be pessimistic and believe the next 10 years will be worse than the last 10. I hope to be wrong.

The next 10 years will be better than the last 10.

 

[antmary]

I think the economy will be worse...that is because I think that the chickens will becoming home to roost re: overpopulation and degradation of our environment.

 

[bjorn2bwild]

Easy -

Find the person who is 100% correct about the current state of affairs,
extrapolate that out 15-20 years, adjust for error - /.5 (50:50), adjust by the odds of being killed by an asteroid - .0002 x 15-20 years, put that in the following formula -
e=mc2/15-20 years, where e= economy, mc= the memory constant (history does'nt repeat but it rhymes) and the 2= inflation. Multiply that by life expectancy ~

 

[NW-Bound]

And your answer is...?

 

[bjorn2bwild]

And your answer is...?

Sorry, I forgot to show my work = ?
Like all good science, it is open source and subject to peer review.

 

[NW-Bound]

Eh, you did not show anything to review.

 

[harley]

I have no idea about the economy, but if I can go to Mars, I'm in!

 

[bjorn2bwild]

My serious answer is that I don't know.
I am surprised that no mention has been given to a US version of the Japan scenario where age expansion overrides economic expansion in the next 15-20 years.

 

[NW-Bound]

We have talked about population aging in the past. The demographics of the US is way better than that of Japan and many European countries. So, we will not be the 1st to go down the tube. That's my silver-lining thought.

 

[34rlsa]

I'm 100% certain... and have no doubt... that I have no idea...

 

[Walt34]

Dang, my crystal ball is all cloudy.