Preparing for Another Hurricane in Good Ol' Fla.

[Another Reader]

A public shelter on Facebook is asking for people to come take their dogs or they will kill them today. Their kennels are all outside. How can a public shelter house their dogs outside in Florida? Why didn’t they prepare plans since hurricanes are not unusual. The level of stupidity is unbelievable.

Florida shelters are generally horrible. Pets are not really a high priority in a lot of the South. In Texas, they have had cooperative efforts in recent years to take animals out of state when a disaster is expected to happen. They are networked to shelters and rescues and transport picks them up and drives them. That is what should happen in this situation. Where are the ASPCA and Maddies Fund?

 

[imoldernu]

Where we lived. Sold last year. Was sad at the time, but thankful today.

Best wishes for a good outcome for all Floridians.

 

[Blueskies123]

Agree on the first 3 points; not sure on the 4th.
That is why driving out of state not happening for us.

Try this experiment. Fill a sink tonight then in the morning check on it.

 

[LRDave]

Try this experiment. Fill a sink tonight then in the morning check on it.

I would assume most folks know some secondary (actually primary) blockage is required (Saran Wrap/mechanical weight/wedging....).

 

[Tekward]

We had actually been considering a move to an active 55+ community by Lakeland and submitted a few offers, but the storm has us reconsidering.


What happens to community finances when a storm causes big damage? Do they float another development bond?


I imagine that even with homeowner insurance any home restoration is a major headache for a snow-bird. Maybe prices will be dropping.

 

[socca]

For Hurricane Irma, there was considerable uncertainty regarding the eye path until remarkably late in the game - when does westward movement become northward movement? The predicted path didn't materialize - the eye went north inland rather than along the FL west coast as predicted (an earlier prediction had the eye going up the FL east coast). I had better luck eyeballing and extrapolating the movement of the eye in the final hours before landfall than paying attention to the published predictions (might have been beginner's luck ).

It seems like we're in the same boat regarding Hurricane Dorian. It may be that the science of hurricane prediction has advanced to the point that general behavior can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, but the details are still uncertain. For hurricanes, though, the details matter. A distance of as little as 50 miles can mean the difference between a house without a roof and house with a few missing shingles.

I'm still hoping that Dorian will slow down considerably, begin heading north, and spin off harmlessly into the North Atlantic. Wouldn't that be nice? I lost power for 24 hours during Irma; it sucked. The heat and humidity are nasty down here without A/C.

Good luck!

 

[atmsmshr]

The predator track jumped again - a easterly track in the Atlantic and fortunately dropping strength before landfall. Dramatic changes in prediction demonstrate importance of paying attention to the risks and preparing for the worst. A parallel track off the coast will still bring hurricane force winds and storm surge.

In 2004 the forecast was similar, but Jeanne did a 270 degree loop overnight and sacked us good as a low cat 3. In 1992 Miami kept waiting for the predicted turn north but Andrew barreled straight in as a cat 5. I recall going to Kendall and Florida city on post hurricane relief. Looked like an atom bomb went off - not a tree standing and no intact roofs.

We have three bug out spots upon leaving the island - and since landfall is not predicted for Vero Beach will stay on the mainland with friends. At this point we are committed because I 95 will become a slow moving parking lot later today.

 

[Badger]

We are a couple of blocks from the ocean here in NE Fl and things are calm for the moment. If it passes without landfall the winds and rain as it spins will be rugged on the coast. Flooding is always an issue. Unless it is far off the coast as it heads north it will be a E-ticket ride.



The house is old, small, and made of concrete block with a metal roof. It has ridden out quite a few hurricanes and harsh nor'easters in it's 65 years so I'm thinking it will do alright. Over the years I have been through more than the fingers on my hands but each one is unique and you never can tell what the next one will be like.



Since all the hotels that take pets are full in Jacksonville we will be riding it out at home and hoping for the best. Once the power is gone it will get really hot and muggy. Finished all the ice cream just in case.



Cheers!

 

[JoeWras]

In 1999, Hurricane Floyd was on this exact forecast track as Dorian. It eventually became a CAT 5, and was at one time headed for Palm Beach.

It never made the FL coast, it recurved pretty early North, and hit NC with devastating floods.

We'll see. Nobody on the east coast from Miami to Cape Hatteras is out of the woods yet.

This is de ja vu all over again.

Dorian needs to recurve hard. It took 10 years for NC to recover from Floyd.

FL, I know you are not out of the woods and the media will continue to stir things up. But frankly, a skirt off the coast with left quadrant impact is something you can take without much issue. Maybe you'll even miss the quadrant. Here's hoping it stays off shore as the trend is now forming.

After that, we need a hard recurve. Floyd took a right turn, missed FL and decided to go due North. It was a nightmare. Hundreds of swift water rescues, people on roofs, dead pigs floating everywhere.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

We are a couple of blocks from the ocean here in NE Fl and things are calm for the moment. If it passes without landfall the winds and rain as it spins will be rugged on the coast. Flooding is always an issue. Unless it is far off the coast as it heads north it will be a E-ticket ride.

We are 60 miles South of you Badger, and like you very close to the beach. We are in an X flood zone so ~10' above Seal level. Matthew was our last big rainmaker and TS Fay before that, water did come up the banks of the lakes surrounding us, but there was still 5' or so to go to the homes.

We hope you, your family and property come through favorably.

 

[RAE]

Latest (8 am, sat. morning) update from Skip Foster. Looks hopeful that this thing might not make landfall in Florida, but it's too early to be certain about that........





Dorian update: (8am Saturday) Headlines: Barring epic computer model meltdown, Dorian unlikely to make landfall on the Florida coast; effects could still be severe; also, Carolinas beware.
EDIT: should have mentioned that Dorian is a beast. It got even stronger overnight. If this storm has made a direct Florida hit things would have been ugly.
Keeping this short — all models now show Dorian slowing down on approach to Florida, allowing a northerly turn before landfall. Only the UK model still brings the eye extremely close or just on shore. The rest of the models — GFS, Euro, Canadian, HWRF, HMON — all show Dorian paralleling the coast then targeting the upper SC/NC coast (although even that landfall is in doubt).
So, three things. 1) even without landfall, Dorian can wreak havoc on the coast 2) but, there is no way around the fact that a gigantic crisis has apparently been averted; 3) I can’t totally slam the door on a big model shift for another day or so.
Carolinas coast friends — if a landfall happened it would be in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe so we have some time to see if further east trending also spares you.


Bottom line — need one more day before sending out the “all clear” for Florida landfall, but things are looking better.
Be safe, stay aware and enjoy your weekend.

 

[Badger]

This is de ja vu all over again.

Dorian needs to recurve hard. It took 10 years for NC to recover from Floyd.

FL, I know you are not out of the woods and the media will continue to stir things up. But frankly, a skirt off the coast with left quadrant impact is something you can take without much issue. Maybe you'll even miss the quadrant. Here's hoping it stays off shore as the trend is now forming.

After that, we need a hard recurve. Floyd took a right turn, missed FL and decided to go due North. It was a nightmare. Hundreds of swift water rescues, people on roofs, dead pigs floating everywhere.

Since this is where I live I will take exception to that statement. The last one to come by did some real flooding damage. I watched as the ocean breached the dunes and flooded inward 3 blocks with every wave set. That was a serious issue.


Cheers!

 

[Badger]

I just read where some Floridians who are experienced in prepping are filling their large (50 gal.) recycling bins with tap water in addition to the bottled water they have on hand. It can be boiled for potable water or used for other needs. It's a large container that is often overlooked. And many condos these days, etc. have showers but no tubs, so built-in temporary water storage is limited.

omni

Using those nasty recycle bins for water is never a good idea and not necessary. Much easier and cleaner to use new 5 gallon buckets with a lid from your hardware stores. They can be stored inside and reasonably carried (of left in the bathroom) to flush the toilet or take a sponge bath. It will get sticky and hot if the electricity is off. If you treat the water with just a little bleach (1 teaspoon to 5 gallons water) it should be safe to drink according to the CDC. Do not use more.

Also use as many small containers like tupperware to freeze water and leave in your refrigerator to keep things cold. Put a coin on top of the frozen water. If you leave and come back then check the coin. If it is still on top then everything in the refrigerator is safe to eat. If the coin is on the bottom (even if the water is frozen) then the electricity was off for a long time and I would throw out the food and not take a chance.


Cheers!

 

[CountryGal]

Saving water for power outage.

For some storms up North, we have put Rubbermaid Totes (about 18gal or so) in the tub and filled them with water. If placed well, it allowed us the ability to shower and keep the stored water for flushing toilets if the power went out.

Maybe this will help someone. Stay safe everyone!

C

 

[Dtail]

Thinking I can hang in my pool if the electric goes except for sleeping.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Thinking I can hang in my pool if the electric goes except for sleeping.

Pool Showers, our thoughts exactly. Good for flushing too.

 

[Dtail]

Pool Showers, our thoughts exactly. Good for flushing too.

@SWR - for the latest forecast, are you on the left side of the winds, so a little better for you?

 

[ShokWaveRider]

@SWR - for the latest forecast, are you on the left side of the winds, so a little better for you?

Thanks for your concern, it is getting better for me and Badger. We are on the West side as of 11am today.

 

[JoeWras]

Since this is where I live I will take exception to that statement. The last one to come by did some real flooding damage. I watched as the ocean breached the dunes and flooded inward 3 blocks with every wave set. That was a serious issue.


Cheers!

My apologies. I was talking too general and aggregate. Maybe thinking too much like a disaster responder, as I've been doing. I was wrong in that statement. You are correct, near ocean properties can be severely impacted. Sometimes, the wave action from a strong 'cane 100s of miles offshore will cause significant coastal flooding.

 

[W2R]

So pleased to read that things are looking more hopeful for Florida. Bob Breck is an old timer retired New Orleans television weather guy that I follow; here's the latest entry in his blog.

Radical Shift in Track...

During my 4+ decades tracking hurricanes, I’ve seen how conservative the NHC is in making major track changes. They hate to flip-flop with each new model run so usually they just “tweak” the centerline track position. Not overnight. I mentioned in my last post 3 scenarios, one being a shift to the east BEFORE Dorian reaches FLA. NHC now has that scenario. Does it mean FLA. is spared? Not yet since much of the state is still in the cone. Plus, the turn hasn’t happened yet! (Remember mass + momentum equation). Dorian is nearing Cat. 5 and will be harder to make radical turn. But that’s what the models say will happen. Sure the threat has lessened for FLA. but it’s not zero. He has a spectacular satellite presentation and is a beast. Let’s hope the model trends prove correct. Oh by the way, NHC is giving a small swirl north of Cuba a 20% chance for development over the western Gulf next week. Geez, stay tuned!

 

[imoldernu]

Forecasts...wrong....all wrong... Trust in God, all others pay cash!

How much do you think that one cost? My guess 400 million. A pittance.

Now, what are y'all gonna do with all those sandbags?

Your advanced meteorological departments.... @...2.9 Billion dollars ... A good government investment?

 

[Dtail]

Forecasts...wrong....all wrong... Trust in God, all others pay cash!

How much do you think that one cost? My guess 400 million. A pittance.

Now, what are y'all gonna do with all those sandbags?

Your advanced meteorological departments.... @...2.9 Billion dollars ... A good government investment?

haha. I LBYM'd for the storm and held off on the sandbags.

 

[Calico]

Well, so far today I have received emails from Capital One, Citicard, and USAA asking about my well being and telling me they are there to help. So....I got that going for me.

Isn't it nice when your loved ones reach out to let you know they're thinking of you?

 

[Moemg]

haha. I LBYM'd for the storm and held off on the sandbags.

Me to , I did buy two big jars of peanut butter and some pretzels . I also loaded my kindle with books .I never fully relax until the hurricane has passed us . I have seen too many crazy turns .

 

[steelyman]

Me to , I did buy two big jars of peanut butter and some pretzels . I also loaded my kindle with books .I never fully relax until the hurricane has passed us . I have seen too many crazy turns .

I hope things turn out for the best for Florida (and now the Carolinas!).

Speaking of pretzels, I came across a brand I’d never heard of the other week, tried them and am totally addicted. Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels:

http://dotspretzels.com

This is a thread sidetrack, I know, but bought enough Dot’s to get me through a storm and power outage!