Preparing for Another Hurricane in Good Ol' Fla.

[Moemg]

I hope things turn out for the best for Florida (and now the Carolinas!).

Speaking of pretzels, I came across a brand I’d never heard of the other week, tried them and am totally addicted. Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels:

http://dotspretzels.com

This is a thread sidetrack, I know, but bought enough Dot’s to get me through a storm and power outage!

I'll have to try that as of now my favorite is UTZ sourdough .

 

[JoeWras]

Let's just keep this thing entirely off shore.

It may be too late for the N. Bahamas. Prayers up for them.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Looking good for us in NEFLA, but isn't that mostly always the way.

 

[jimnjana]

Waiting... eating all the hurricane snacks...good thing we have time to get more.

 

[Dtail]

Waiting... eating all the hurricane snacks...good thing we have time to get more.

lol
We are eating our mega size Oreo hurricane snacks.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

We are not celebrating as yet.... But we have stocked up on snacks.

 

[ncbill]

Now my kid's school is closed all week, supposedly back open a week from Monday.

But given the rain that's coming I doubt the roads will be passable by then.

 

[eroscott]

FWIW, here are some of my favorite hurricane-monitoring websites:
• National Hurricane Center
• GOES-East, Caribbean Sector
• Earth Global Wind Map
• Mike's Weather Page

It's shaping up to be an "interesting" weekend in Florida. I prefer my weekends to be less interesting.

Windy . COM is a great browser site AND phone app. Lot of options. Play/motion at bottom of screen.
https://www.windy.com/?27.820,-76.421,5
And
ventusky . COM
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28.7;-75.5;5&l=rain-3h&t=20190901/0000

 

[socca]

The current eye path prediction for Hurricane Dorian is similar to Hurricane Floyd (1999). The visual comparison of the size of Floyd and Andrew on Floyd's wikipedia page is interesting; Dorian is currently closer in size to Andrew than Floyd (which was enormous). Whatever - these were/are all powerful storms.

 

[jimnjana]

Not celebrating yet too. Did slow down on finishing pre storm tasks. Some things won't be necessary for tropical storm force winds.

 

[Amethyst]

Well, we managed 1 and 3 today. We live about 2/3 of the way down the east coast. Then again....we left home at 2:30 a.m. and were in Georgia by daylight.

As for the tub/sink...we didn't bother. The water just drains over time. About as futile as the notion of "filling up your freezer with milk jugs of water to keep everything cold longer after the power fails." Yeah right.

I really feel bad for people reading some posts here and relying on them. All of these are wrong;
1) you can get out of Florida on one tank of gas (maybe if you live in Jacksonville).
2) you will be able to buy gas on the way out of the state.
3) you can leave on Friday and be able to get out of the state, you will not get 50 miles).
4) you can fill your tub/sink and expect it to have it days later as a source of water.

 

[Elbata]

Lots of mention about Dorian and its impact on FL. But if Dorian skips most of FL and heads towards GA and the Carolinas, their buildings aren't designed as are those in FL. It seems to me, if the hurricane hits those states first, the devastation could be more severe.

I was in Miami recently and drove along Florida's panhandle to Montgomery AL. I was awestruck by the devastation that that tornado caused.

 

[atmsmshr]

NHC forecast at 0500 still has Dorian off the coast. Only a Tropical Storm warning issued for the Treasure Coast. That means voluntary evacuations.

In 33 years in FL I do not recall only a TS Warning issued while being in the cone. (The cone by design is a 67% probability track.). NHC has been very conservative in the past; this time seem to be confident of the turn north being a certainly.

IMHO conflicting messages with the cone, storm intensity, and only a TS warning.

County emergency management agencies primarily use NOAA forecasts to make their Alerts.

Dorian expected to be a very powerful cat 5. Energy (i.e. damage potential at the eye wall) is a function of wind velocity squared.

I can hear the roar of the surf this morning - Dorian is coming.

 

[Badger]

We are not celebrating as yet.... But we have stocked up on snacks.

I'm still waiting for Dorian's right turn signal before breathing easier. Unfortunately nobody uses them in Florida so I will wait a little longer.
Now where did I put those oreos?


Cheers!

 

[Dtail]

I'm still waiting for Dorian's right turn signal before breathing easier. Unfortunately nobody uses them in Florida so I will wait a little longer.
Now where did I put those oreos?


Cheers!

Had 2 oreos last night, but still have most of them left over, plus all the other snacks.
Making final house preparations today.

Let's all hope for the best, especially our eastern FLA folks.

 

[RAE]

Sunday morning update from Skip Foster:


Dorian update (7:15 am Sunday) Headlines: Pray for Freeport and Abaco in the Bahamas; models still won’t sound “all clear” for Florida.
Grand Bahama Island and Abaco are about to take a direct hit from a slow-moving high Cat 4 hurricane. I fear the damage and loss of life will be profound.
Meanwhile, slight westward shifting of pretty much every model means the coast of Florida from Ft Pierce. northward is still on the hook — either for outer bands because the storm remained close, but still offshore; severe impacts because the storm got very close to shore; or devastating impacts because of a landfall.
The Euro, GFS and now UK all show a track that keeps Dorian offshore, but they are inching west from prior runs. The less-reliable Canadian has been west of those models consistently. The hurricane models — HWRF and HMON — both keep the storm offshore.
I don’t like this westward trending, especially since only 50 miles makes an enormous difference.
Coastal areas need to keep watching Dorian like a hawk.

 

[Dtail]

8am update now has Dorian as a Cat 5 with 160mph.

 

[RAE]

8am update now has Dorian as a Cat 5 with 160mph.

Yeah, I saw that. And it's headed straight for Abaco and Grand Bahama. One meteorologist just described the upcoming impact to those islands as a
"slow moving train wreck", since the storm is going to slow down to a crawl shortly. I hope most folks on those islands were able to evacuate.........this is not a storm you want to try to hunker down and survive if it's coming directly at you.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

DW says it is like being "Stalked" by a Turtle. We really will not know anything until it starts to hopefully turn North in search of more lettuce. It is a big IF too, it would be tragic for the lower east and west coasts of FLA if it does not.

 

[Dtail]

Yeah, I saw that. And it's headed straight for Abaco and Grand Bahama. One meteorologist just described the upcoming impact to those islands as a
"slow moving train wreck", since the storm is going to slow down to a crawl shortly. I hope most folks on those islands were able to evacuate.........this is not a storm you want to try to hunker down and survive if it's coming directly at you.

Unfortunately the permanent island folks can usually only go to a shelter.
Wonder if the shelters are built to withstand a Cat 5 intensity.

I believe many hurricane shelters in the US are built to Cat 4 strength, not Cat 5.

 

[Redbugdave]

I have come to the conclusion that the 5 day cone for forecasting hurricanes is worthless. I think the 3 day forecast is reasonable and gives an accurate account of what to expect. Look at the millions of dollars and anxiety spent especially in Florida on this one whipped into a froth by the TV Scare-casters. I don't worry about days 4 and 5. The science is just not accurate enough.

 

[RAE]

Unfortunately the permanent island folks can usually only go to a shelter.
Wonder if the shelters are built to withstand a Cat 5 intensity.

I believe many hurricane shelters in the US are built to Cat 4 strength, not Cat 5.

I highly doubt it, but I haven't seen anything written about that.


This is a complicated and weird storm, by hurricane standards. Movement has been so slow that the forecast models couldn't figure out where it was going for quite a few days there. And they still can't be certain it will make the big right turn as it approaches Florida, although they are saying that is very likely.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Predictions are pretty good on the whole but not cast in stone. But Historical performance in no guarantee of future performance. One really does not know until it gets close.

It will be interesting to see if it turns North as abruptly as is predicted. definitely a nail biter.

 

[JoeWras]

I don’t like this westward trending, especially since only 50 miles makes an enormous difference.
Coastal areas need to keep watching Dorian like a hawk.

I admit a little complacency yesterday because every new run was trending east.

Now we get this reversal. Wake up call. Nature will do what it wants. Let's hope this west trend stops.

 

[Dtail]

Predictions are pretty good on the whole but not cast in stone. But Historical performance in no guarantee of future performance. One really does not know until it gets close.

It will be interesting to see if it turns North as abruptly as is predicted. definitely a nail biter.

Bolded by me - sounds like comments about Firecalc.....