Probably a good day to buy

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street said:
Interesting article. I do hope for the sake of all mankind in the world that they can get a vaccine for this epidemic. I'm hoping for some break through to get it under control and the markets back on track.
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Wish in one hand, **** in the other, see which one fills up first.

Vaccines take time, at least months. This thing is novel, so I imagine it will take some time. It may also mutate, so you might build a vaccine for what you have now and find the virus has changed into something that does not match the vaccine real well, similar to the flu. We should assume this thing is here to stay. It looks to me to be widely spread enough and contagious enough that it is not just a China thing. Ain't going away in the near term.
 
Stock channel was something this morning, saying “stocks plummet.” But when I reviewed my shopping list, the ~3% drop only put my shopping list stocks about where they were 3-4 weeks ago. No bargains yet. Standing by...
 
I think every day is a good day to buy. But now that I am retired where will the money come from? I only sell from here on out.
 
brewer12345 said:
The data I have seen suggests that there is no return to production in China: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/it-begins-chinese-business-conditions-crash-most-record
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Thanks for sharing!

The link says "China's workers simply refused to go back to work (even with FoxConn offering its workers extra bonuses just to return to the factory)..."

The workers are just too scared. And the article quoted a twitt from a Chinese with a post showing two contradictory official street banners.

Banner 1 says: “If you go out messing around now, expect grass on your grave to grow soon.“

Banner 2 says, “Sitting at home eats up all you have, hurry up go out & find a job.”

It is obvious the Chinese government itself is running scared, not knowing what coherent guidance to give.

This looks worse than most people imagine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1231434194066251777
 
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I think the Chinese regime is in trouble. They have to try to tamp down the spread of the virus and resulting death, yet they are not far from severe economic damage. They have also been lying through their teeth about what has been going on, which will hurt them when the truth comes out. I don't see a lot of room for them to maneuver.
 
Have any of you read about Trump's huge budget cuts to Public Health & the CDC?

I wonder how well they are prepared for this virus. Hopefully, we won't find out.
 
GreenEggs said:
Have any of you read about Trump's huge budget cuts to Public Health & the CDC?

I wonder how well they are prepared for this virus. Hopefully, we won't find out.
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The President may propose, but Congress has the power of the purse. There have been no cuts implemented.
 
A $1.25 billion additional emergency fund is being talked about. Some say it's not enough and should be 10 times more.
 
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Way too early to even think about. I'm keeping my powder dry.


Cheers!
 
Richard Engel yesterday: "Doctors I’m speaking to are asking how it’s possible countries neighboring or near to China (India/ Indonesia) have few or no reported virus cases when Italy is finding hundreds in tiny hilltop villages. Is it a case of don’t look for what you don’t want to find, they wonder."
 
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I was reading on a thread on reddit last night that focused on supply chain and logistics relative to COVID-19. If I am to believe what I read, the container shipping worldwide network has already been knocked for a loop. Containers and ships are in the wrong places. Too many empty containers, not enough trucks or truck drivers on the docks, ships carrying raw materials hovering outside Asian ports unable to be unloaded, etc. International shipping requires a nice, steady beat to maintain our just-in-time economy. Even if everybody were magically well today, it could take months to get the rhythm back and there will be shortages and disruptions that even head-in-the-sand John Q Public will notice.

Heavens, my Amazon Prime order might not arrive tomorrow as promised!:ermm:
 
RAE said:
I'm glad I'm at zero equities. Sure, the market will likely bounce back at some point, but I don't really care, one way or another, to be honest. It's nice to be able to sleep soundly without any concerns about the market whatsoever. I'm done with that, I can live off what I have for a long time, and have no plans to jump back in.
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I was 100% treasuries last July 2019 due to the recession scare. Today, Feb 27, the Dow has dropped 10% so this is a buying opportunity. I just re-allocated to 10% stock and 90% treasuries. If the Dow decline 20%, I will re-allocate again to 20% stock and 80% treasuries. I will stop at 50% stock and 50% treasuries. If it recovers quickly, I made money on the 10% stock. If the Dow decline 50%, I should make even more money when it recovers...although that may take time. I still have my treasuries for liquidity since I am retired and close to 70. I learned about the value of treasuries due to the following link:

https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-happens-to-bonds-in-a-stock-market-crash/
 
I've been one that has always stayed in the market, but now I'm wondering.
First I keep citing flu statistics to all my friends that are so worried. People die by the thousands every year from the flu. I'm not sure this is any different. But the physiology is different, people are so much more concerned about this than the flu.

I just left Sam's and there was a run at the sanitary wipes dispenser, and I saw gallon bottles of hand sanitizer in peoples baskets. I paid a bill and the women had spots all over one of her hands, I made use of the sanitary wipes. How unusual of me!
So, what's going to be the market reaction if/when it comes to our shores?
 
vchan2177 said:
I was 100% treasuries last July 2019 due to the recession scare. Today, Feb 27, the Dow has dropped 10% so this is a buying opportunity. I just re-allocated to 10% stock and 90% treasuries. If the Dow decline 20%, I will re-allocate again to 20% stock and 80% treasuries. I will stop at 50% stock and 50% treasuries. If it recovers quickly, I made money on the 10% stock. If the Dow decline 50%, I should make even more money when it recovers...although that may take time. I still have my treasuries for liquidity since I am retired and close to 70. I learned about the value of treasuries due to the following link:

https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-happens-to-bonds-in-a-stock-market-crash/
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The SP 500 was around 2900 last July, 3040 as I type this. So you sold low, buy high? :popcorn:
 
Time2 said:
I've been one that has always stayed in the market, but now I'm wondering.
First I keep citing flu statistics to all my friends that are so worried. People die by the thousands every year from the flu. I'm not sure this is any different. But the physiology is different, people are so much more concerned about this than the flu.

I just left Sam's and there was a run at the sanitary wipes dispenser, and I saw gallon bottles of hand sanitizer in peoples baskets. I paid a bill and the women had spots all over one of her hands, I made use of the sanitary wipes. How unusual of me!
So, what's going to be the market reaction if/when it comes to our shores?
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The "best" part about this is that hand sanitzer is ineffective. It is much better to simply wash with soap and warm water. Along with this, use things like Clorox wipes to kill viruses and bacteria on surfaces.

I do have about a gallon of Sam's Hand Sanitizer. It is 70% alcohol and makes for a good fire starter for my wood stove. :) I see in looking at the web site that it is sold out.
 
aja8888 said:
XOM is at a 52 week low also. Haven't seen it in the $50's in a long time. yielding around 6% but I believe they are taking on debt to pay the dividend.
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XOM is now at a [-]52 week low[/-] ~15 year low and still falling. I had 10k shares about a year ago and got out in the low 70's. Just luck.... I was swing trading it in the past few months but not anymore. It's only swinging down.
 
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copyright1997reloaded said:
The SP 500 was around 2900 last July, 3040 as I type this. So you sold low, buy high? :popcorn:
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I was mostly in Vanguard Wellington fund VWELX which I sold at $42.16. Yesterday VWELX was $42.62 but I wanted to be more aggressive so I went into VFINX.

What matters is the day you buy with cash and day you sold on a cashout.

Reallocation is an "in-between" transaction which does NOT matter IMO. Similar to playing blackjack. What matters is the chips you start out with and the chips you have when you cashout.

I am still 90% treasuries and if there is a crash or a recession, my 90% treasuries will go up and not down. In addition, I can buy more stock when a crash or a recession do occur. I happen to love my position that I am in.

Is your portfolio going up now?
 
vchan2177 said:
I was mostly in Vanguard Wellington fund VWELX which I sold at $42.16. Yesterday VWELX was $42.62 but I wanted to be more aggressive so I went into VFINX.

What matters is the day you buy with cash and day you sold on a cashout.

Reallocation is an "in-between" transaction which does NOT matter IMO. Similar to playing blackjack. What matters is the chips you start out with and the chips you have when you cashout.

I am still 90% treasuries and if there is a crash or a recession, my 90% treasuries will go up and not down. In addition, I can buy more stock when a crash or a recession do occur. I happen to love my position that I am in.

Is your portfolio going up now?
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FWIW Wellington also paid about $1.50 in divies and cap gains between Sept and Dec. That would take your current $ value up to $44 or so.😉
 
vchan2177 said:
Is your portfolio going up now?
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Just messing with you a bit.

My net worth is considerably higher than July 2019. That is what is important. :) Sold some at the end of 2019 and YTD.

Yes, it's been a bad week. But I have plenty of food, wood for heat. If the virus doesn't kill me (or a member of my family) all else is secondary.

I'm also sitting on about 1.5 M in cash/inflation adjusted bonds. So plenty of reserve to keep me and/or re-invest as appropriate.
 
I have an AA I chose that I believe will do well for me in up, down, and sideways markets. I am sticking to that AA.

As of today, I suppose I could do some buying to get my stock % up to where I want it. And, I might do it except that the sun is out and Spring is in the air. Honestly, will it make a huge difference in the long run? I doubt it.

Now, if the market gets to -25% from its high that will give me the added returns needed to fund my retirement lifestyle of traveling the world with wine, women and song. So I will probably re-balance then.
 
Interesting comments.
I'm going to buy next week just waiting and not getting in any big hurry. I think it drops a lot more and more gains to be had if I hold out and buy in small numbers and more often as it continues to drop.
 
Keep in mind about 20 years ago the market peaked and then the dotcom bubble started bursting around March 2000 and got worse as the year progressed. I see no difference this time. You have a high flying technology sector and 40% of the market in a deep secular bear market that include REITS, retail, energy, industrial stocks. Financial stocks can get crushed once again as consumer debt levels are at record levels. One Dow stock that is in a perilous position is Boeing. It continues to pay out dividends by increasing it's debt load. If airlines start cancelling their orders (which they can now without penalties), the whole narrative Wall Street cooked up for Boeing will evaporate and it could become the next GM wiping out equity investors.
 
street said:
Interesting comments.
I'm going to buy next week just waiting and not getting in any big hurry. I think it drops a lot more and more gains to be had if I hold out and buy in small numbers and more often as it continues to drop.
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I already did my homework on what to buy. I am very happy to be 100% treasuries when this event happened. My treasuries are up but I see more profit in buying some stock now. I will reallocate from 100% treasury to 10% stock/90% treasury this weekend to take advantage of the recent decline.
 
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