Propane Prices

[TromboneAl]

I've got to decide when to fill up my 300 gallon propane tank. Prices are usually lowest in August, but not always. Still $2.10 per gallon here. Anyone know anything about propane price forecasts?

 

[JPatrick]

I've got to decide when to fill up my 300 gallon propane tank.  Prices are usually lowest in August, but not always.  Still $2.10 per gallon here.  Anyone know anything about propane price forecasts?

Well here's how the boys in rural Oklahoma feel about it.
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/9/68072093.html 8)

 

[sgeeeee]

. . . Anyone know anything about propane price forecasts?

Yes. My experience is that most of the time the forecasts are wrong. I don't use propane now, but back when I lived in rural Iowa I used to research propane price projections and try to time my fillups. I never got it right once.

 

[haha]

Well here's how the boys in rural Oklahoma feel about it.
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/9/68072093.html 8)

Excellent link, JPAtrick.  I poked around awhile and bookmarked it. The news stories are informative and to the point.
ha

 

[BUM]

Another way to track propane cost is to watch natural gas (nattie) prices. I've been tracking SPH for a year or so. Gonna buy it someday.


BUM

 

[brewer12345]

Just be aware that SPH has relatively little exposure to propane prices. They pretty much just do a pass-through of propane prices to their cutomers, kind of like a pipeline. I own SPH and think its a good company, just understand what you are getting. It is also worth waiting for the meaningless dips that happen a couple times a year.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

DCA into it. Put 50 gallons in per month.

If the price rises sharply, sell some of yours to your neighbors.

 

[Brat]

We also heat with propane. TromboneAl, send me a note if you see a dip and I will do likewise.

DCA works if the price fluxes are large, otherwise the small fill cost kills any potential advantage.

 

[JPatrick]

Question for the propane burners:
I have zero experience with propane. 
However, I am looking online at a couple of 2000 sq ft homes that heat with propane.
As a heating option, how does propane stack up.  Other homes in the area are total electric or use heat pumps both of which I have used.
No nat gas available.

 

[maddythebeagle]

Propane in my neck of the woods was 1.09 per gallon last year to "pre-buy" (buy XX gallons in august for the amount that you expect to need). I ended up burning more wood and have a credit of 150 bucks. Some places dont allow a credit and will just take the unused portion.

I wont price until next month, but you are scaring me and think that I probably should just start chopping up more wood now in anticipation.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Based on what Al was telling me he spends on propane water heating, and he's in the same part of the same state that I'm in (be afraid Al), propane for heating water costs a LOT more than natural gas. So I'd guess that propane home heating would be a hell of a lot more than natural gas.

Pretty dang unscientific though...

 

[Brat]

You need to know that I live in a very moderate climate.  Air conditioning is unnecessary and days significantly below freezing are few.  [Just in case you are thinking of moving here, it is raining today!]

Natural gas isn't available to JPatrick.  What he should think about is the relative cost of electricty to propane in his community. My husband (an Architect) tells me that there are tools available to calculate this, ask the local propane and power providers.  Electric power charges have been very unstable these last few years.  If your electric power is unreliable you can power a generator with propane - one of the reasons why propane is popular in rural areas.

Most equipment fueled by natural gas can be adapted for propane by changing the orifice.  Our furnace, dryer, hot water heater and BBQ are propane.  It works for us.

 

[TromboneAl]

Thanks for the link.  I think I'll buy 150 gallons a the end of July, and then another 150 in August or September. 

Here is a graph of propane prices that we've paid:

 

[TromboneAl]

And for you real anal retentive types, here is the correspondence between the meter on the tank, and the actual numbers of gallons in the tank (for a 300 gallon tank):

% Full      #gallons
0 0
10 14.41
20 40.41
30 73.45
40 110.72
50 150.00
60 189.28
70 226.55
80 259.59
90 285.59
100 300.00

That took hours of calculations and counting of graph paper squares.

 

[TromboneAl]

However, I am looking online at a couple of 2000 sq ft homes that heat with propane.
As a heating option, how does propane stack up?  Other homes in the area are total electric or use heat pumps both of which I have used.

Here's a page that lets you do fuel cost calculations:

http://www.hearth.com/articles/47_0_1_0_M7.html

But of course it depends on efficiency of the furnace, etc.  We've gone completely to wood heating, but below shows how much propane we've used over the years (Our house is about 2000 sq ft).  One big hump represents a broken heating duct that was causing us to heat the crawlspace ( ) and another represents a propane leak at the tank.  As of last month, we're now down to .68 gal/day.

 

[Brat]

Electric resistant heating is 100% efficient in cleaning out your bank account!!

 

[JPatrick]

Thanks for all the info/ and graphs. It would appear propane heating is a viable option provided I can paint that tank to look like a -- - -a rocket ship I guess

 

[unclemick]

Ah yes - wild and free - the old timey - PacNW Bonneville power days of way under 1 cent per kw - we used 100% electric resistant like drunken sailors. The house I sold in 1993 had resistant heaters - my mom was running 2-4kw per month on an old peoples rate in a drafty Victorian.

I run portable resistant electrics in the fishcamp - only in the rooms areas required for winter - three weeks in jan.

Just kidding - we're basically all electric - well pump included - 1700 to 2400 dollars per year ballpark range depending on fuel adjustment(utility) and the years weather.

 

[REWahoo]

we're basically all electric - well pump included - 1700 to 2400 dollars per year ballpark range depending on fuel adjustment(utility) and the years weather.

Same here (rural central Texas). 2,400 sq ft all electric (heat pump) including well & aerobic septic system. Averaging just over $2,000/yr, including blistering summer temps (102 yesterday).

Please, please send some rain this way.

REW

 

[unclemick]

Gulf Shores, Al or Pensacola - I hope - not to wish them ill, since the shock of Ivan hasn't totally worn off.

 

[BUM]

Just be aware that SPH has relatively little exposure to propane prices. They pretty much just do a pass-through of propane prices to their cutomers, kind of like a pipeline. I own SPH and think its a good company, just understand what you are getting. It is also worth waiting for the meaningless dips that happen a couple times a year.

Today was an unclemick day. Didn't do anything all. Fooled with my putz stocks. SPH finally dipped some....pulled the trigger @ 34.20 we'll see...

heh, heh

 

[Brat]

Just filled up the tank @ $1.729. Provider near Bremerton, WA.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Avoid electirc resistance heating. $$$$$$$$$

I love natural gas. If not available, I would go for propane. My brother recommends two tanks. Sometimes he is isolated by storms where he lives.

If AC required, heat pumps are great. Problem: the heat function is backed up by electric resistance heating when the days are REAL cold. [Sorry, I don't remember the limiting temperatures.]

Consider investing in new, plastic framed, multipane insulating windows. They made a BIG difference in our houses. It was the first thing we did in the current house. You get an opportunity to make the windows bigger, too.

You know, once you are committed to one kind of heat, the price of fuel doesn't matter anymore. You just gotta pay, unless you are considering moving or switching systems or out of sheer poverty, freeze in the dark.

Cheers,

Gyspy

 

[BUM]

Hi Gypsy,

We've enjoyed natgas up in NY for 20 yrs. + Last year rates jumped big time. And this year a price cap option may not be offered

Suburban Propane said they will not be offering a cap to their customers. Another thread asked at what point would you change your habits based on hi energy costs. Your comments about windows are right on. Last year was one cold winter! I had a thermostat in one room that would never reach 68. It was on all the time. Broken thermostat? Zonevalve? After way too much detective work I found a very drafty spot at the left edge window sill about 5 feet from the thermostat! Went to HD and searched for transparant painter's plastic sheeting.
I put that up and the room came right up to temperature. It looked pretty shabby but did the trick! I think any energy saving idea or gizmo will have the homeowner's attention this winter.


Suburban Propane also said their propane and heating oil volume was down for the calendar year to date mainly due to customer conservation.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Hey, BUM,

One more reason to get out of New York.

I have lived and worked in New York State. Just about everything north of NYC is really nice, but if you have a choice, there are other places just as nice that are a lot less expensive to live in. It depends on your tolerance for pain, I suppose.

I remember fall on the Hudson and on the St Lawrence Seaway. I loved it. But I didn't move back.

Gypsy