S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

[Major Tom]

Yesterday, it was getting so close to the all-time closing high of 4796.65, it was almost nail-biting. Doesn't look as if it's going to break through that level this year, though next year looks as if it could be fun!

 

[ERD50]

Nearing the close, ~ 4766..
.
What I find interesting is: what a bunch of pessimists! Out of 62 entries, only 5 ( ~ 8%) look to be above the actual. Now, you'd think there would be a more even distribution? And if you take out the high and low entries, only 4/60 for ~6.67%.

Another view - if you estimate the average 10% gain, that gets you to ~ 4222, and that is close to the median [-]guess[/-] entry, 34 under, 28 over - pretty even.

-ERD50

 

[kgtest]

Thought I was just going to go ahead and "tap" this one into the 18th, and head to the clubhouse to wait for my cold one...

But, the market volatility is in full swing.

My 3 yr old daughter just smashed our 4ft tall dressing mirror, not sure if this is a sign of the luck to come?

Literally down to the wire, neck and neck... Jerry1 can smell my horse's rear end, I can feel Jerry1's horses' breathe on my left leg as he tries to take the inside of the track on the final stretch...back and forth this entire last lap...the SUSPENSE!


the anticipation is killing me!

 

[G-Man]

Is today a good day to buy into a Fidelity S&P 500 mutual fund? S&P 500 down 0.29% at the moment.

 

[Jerry1]

Thought I was just going to go ahead and "tap" this one into the 18th, and head to the clubhouse to wait for my cold one...

But, the market volatility is in full swing.

My 3 yr old daughter just smashed our 4ft tall dressing mirror, not sure if this is a sign of the luck to come?

Literally down to the wire, neck and neck... Jerry1 can smell my horse's rear end, I can feel Jerry1's horses' breathe on my left leg as he tries to take the inside of the track on the final stretch...back and forth this entire last lap...the SUSPENSE!


the anticipation is killing me!

Your description of the “race” has me cracking up. Likewise, the anticipation . . .

 

[kgtest]

Is today a good day to buy into a Fidelity S&P 500 mutual fund? S&P 500 down 0.29% at the moment.

Everyday is a good day to buy equities. Unless you are going to die tomorrow. And even then. Some for the heirs I prefer magnificent seven stocks.

 

[audreyh1]

Sure coming down the wire!

 

[G-Man]

Everyday is a good day to buy equities. Unless you are going to die tomorrow. And even then. Some for the heirs I prefer magnificent seven stocks.

lol. Good response. I will wait until Jan. 2 to move some funds from an interest income fund to a S&P 500 fund within my 401k.

 

[kgtest]

Final Hour!! Let's take some profits, baby! GO, GO GO!

 

[kgtest]

Come on Car-guy, throw me a final wager! Sell some equities and place the bet!!

 

[audreyh1]

And now S&P 500 only down 0.16%!

 

[kgtest]

Secretly, Jerry1 is signed on to his broker clicking BUY, BUY, BUY! KIDDING! Fun little "race" as Jerry1 (and his Thoroughbred) along with all the other contestant's still need to clear their "PED" results.

It appears the announcer's in the booth are hanging up their headset's and leaving for their NYE evening's affairs. Jared Bikre my "fav" analyst just dropped his final take of the year at YHF.... Blue Chips have lead the charge in the S/P500 this yr with likely more to come based on his optimism.

Looking sharp Jared...

Back to the race, the horse's are not done yet as Jerry1 just noses out the lead (and thankfully has a larger nose of the breed) after a little fallback surprise to EVERYONE watching. At this point it would take a sprained ankle or a sneeze, the slightest falter to lose, although unlikely!

Not to be forgotten is RobnUSA! He is right here with us the whole time! EEEEK!

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, the traders tend to leave early on the last day so no one knows what will happen those last many minutes.

Recovered a lot of the early loss though - impressive.

 

[jollystomper]

I cannot remember when I have seen so much excitement on a thread .

 

[Jerry1]

The break point in 4773. Below that and kgtest is closer. Above that, I'm looking good. Got my S&P tab open and waiting for the results. Looks like a photo finish.

 

[audreyh1]

I cannot remember when I have seen so much excitement on a thread .

Well I’d say it’s because you made the thread exciting!

 

[Dtail]

Late spurt of selling. KG in the drivers seat.

 

[kgtest]

Ooooooooooooohhh! Daaaaaamn!

 

[audreyh1]

So close! 4769.83

 

[braumeister]

I have rarely been so happy to have had a wrong guess!

 

[audreyh1]

I have rarely been so happy to have had a wrong guess!

Same here!

 

[Jerry1]

Congratulations kgtest. It was an exciting race.

As braumeister said, very happy to come in second. I'm excited to see my year end portfolio summary. The numbers should be available in a couple hours. No doubt, I good year!

 

[kgtest]

+24.23% YTD for S&P500 4769.83 final close

And here I was going to peg this years collection of "When to take SS" threads as the most exciting, but the S&P500 Prediction thread turend out to be a doosie.

Again an honor to be in this prestigious group of dignified human beings. Two steps forward and one step back is my motto.

I won this one by the snot of my horses' snout and one final inhale of Jerry1's horse as we literally ran neck and neck the whole day, and almost prior week or so. What excitement.


SP500 2023 Chart


SP500 Day's Festivities. I doubt we ever have a more entertaining one but here's hoping.

2023 Winner's Podium



Thanks to Jolly for making this....well, more JOLLY!

Now it's time to go quickly add up all my dividend's so I can post in the YTD thread lol. Won't be able to do that until a sole index fund updates its data tonight.

Ohl and go put my guess in for 2024 , thanks for playing.

To pass the time during commercials and halftime of the Seahawks-49ers game, I summarized all of the guesses in this thread. Rather than put out one huge table, I have segmented the guesses into Divisions.

Each division is named after a U2 single whose title I feel best describes the sentiment of the guesses in that division. If there is a mistake in your screen name or guess, let me know, this was typed while watching football. If you object to a division name, hey, this is just mindless fun - feel free to repost with your own segmentation/division names based on whatever you want.


Sunday Bloody Sunday Division (9 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
ShokWaveRider|2000|-47.9%
bmurphy|2100|-45.3%
pb4uski|3000|-21.9%
FLSUnFIRE|3072|-20.0%
freedom2022|3200|-16.7%
DFW_M5|3305|-13.9%
11522914|3338|-13.1%
Hank|3369|-12.3%
Freedom56|3420|-10.9%

Numb Division (11 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
mmurphy|3500|-8.8%
Beststash|3506|-8.7%
Mr. Tightwad|3516|-8.4%
Pointby2|3525|-8.2%
24601NoMore|3600|-6.2%
gooddog|3600|-6.2%
GenXguy|3620|-5.7%
Born2Fish|3650.22|-4.9%
almost there|3721|-3.1%
Rowej|3780|-1.5%
Rocky mtn high|3800|-1.0%

Desire Division (14 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
38Chevy454|3975|3.5%
Lakedog|3993|4.0%
yhoomajor|4001.28|4.2%
N02L84ER|4005|4.3%
rrs26ja|4015|4.6%
GravitySucks|4032|5.0%
aaronc879|4033|5.0%
PatrickA5|4034|5.1%
Taco|4042|5.3%
NW_Bound|4100|6.8%
dmpi|4110|7.0%
Reese|4122|7.4%
Al18|4133|7.6%
Markola|4143|7.9%

Beautiful Day Division (22 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
jollystomper|4223|10.0%
SecondCor521|4223.45|10.0%
audreyh1|4250|10.7%
Dreamer|4269|11.2%
MichealKnight|4270|11.2%
Foghorn Leghorn|4275|11.3%
Toast|4315|12.4%
Sjhawkins|4321|12.5%
latexman|4327.55|12.7%
Go-NoGo|4376|14.0%
tulak|4400|14.6%
SloHan|4415|15.0%
ducky911|4419|15.1%
Dash man|4430|15.4%
finnski1|4444|15.7%
Car-Guy|4500|17.2%
mebden|4500|17.2%
Out-to-Lunch|4512|17.5%
teejayevans|4545|18.4%
Closet_Gamer|4550|18.5%
Rickt|4550|18.5%
braumeister|4560|18.8%

Even Better Than The Real Thing Division (6 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
kgtest | 4750 |23.7% < 2023 Winner
Jerry1|4796|24.9%
Ronbusa3|4799|25.0%
Gumby|5123|33.4%
retire2020|5325|38.7%
sengsational|6001|56.3%

 

[kgtest]

Congratulations kgtest. It was an exciting race.

As braumeister said, very happy to come in second. I'm excited to see my year end portfolio summary. The numbers should be available in a couple hours. No doubt, I good year!

Thank you sir. A good year indeed! Made what is normally the most boring trading day of the year, exciting.

 

[jazz4cash]

I thought we had one more day.