Seven-year average percentage growth

[street]

So, after being ER for 7 years this May 2023. I wanted to see what I averaged per year for percentage of growth. I came up with 9.72% average growth for the last seven years. I didn't do the fine tuning with inflation but just wanted to see the raw numbers.

It seems high but it looks like that is what it is. Does anyone else have some average growth numbers for their years in ER or for how they did in the last 7 years?

 

[Cortina]

Average for 6 years : 10.24 %. If I do 7 yrs , it jumps to over 15% due to one "mad" year" .... which was clearly not "normal"

 

[Koolau]

The problem I have is that I don't track things closely enough to make such a calculation. I do know that after taking RMDs and other draws on my stash, I have considerably more than I did when I FIRE'd 17 years ago.

 

[marko]

6.99% since 2007. 6.71% over the past 7 years. 7.7% over the past 5 years.

 

[Ronstar]

6.0% for 7 years
5.6% for 9 years

 

[DrRoy]

7.8% average for the last 7 complete years. '23 YTD not included.

 

[FREE866]

I retired January 2017 so coming up on 6.5 years.


right about 10% .....S and P has done better, but my exposure to international and small caps hurt me

 

[street]

Thanks for the replies. The way it looks none of us have anything to complain about. I was surprised by my numbers and very happy with that. Even if I had 4% average growth, I would be happy with that also.

 

[braumeister]

5.3% CAGR over the last ten full years.

 

[RetiredAt49]

I don’t track my portfolio’s historical return percentage but Portfolio Visualizer shows a CAGR of 13.44%.

 

[COcheesehead]

Timing matters. I retired in 2020 and swallowed two bear markets. I included YTD in 2023 and we are up an average of 2.33%/year in those 3 years. Not bad, at least it’s positive.
If I go back 7 years as the OP asked, including this year, we are up a lot, over 9%/year.

 

[FREE866]

Timing matters. I retired in 2020 and swallowed two bear markets. I included YTD in 2023 and we are up an average of 2.33%/year in those 3 years. Not bad, at least it’s positive.
If I go back 7 years as the OP asked, including this year, we are up a lot, over 9%/year.

I thought you were at like 70% bonds?!
How are you up 9% /year??

 

[street]

Timing matters. I retired in 2020 and swallowed two bear markets. I included YTD in 2023 and we are up an average of 2.33%/year in those 3 years. Not bad, at least it’s positive.
If I go back 7 years as the OP asked, including this year, we are up a lot, over 9%/year.

Yep, as least we are in positive territory and regardless of the percentage.

 

[COcheesehead]

I thought you were at like 70% bonds?!
How are you up 9% /year??

I am now. I was far more equity allocated up to my retirement date.

 

[FREE866]

I am now. I was far more equity allocated up to my retirement date.

Gotcha. Get back in baby.... F it--you're loaded!

 

[COcheesehead]

Gotcha. Get back in baby.... F it--you're loaded!

I actually sold three appreciated bonds this morning and another yesterday. Raising some cash. I think there will be opportunities everywhere here shortly.

 

[Rianne]

CAGR is much higher, but according to IRR, 10-year performance is 7.6%

 

[joesxm3]

I will be retired 7 years this August. I don't have a sophisticated rate of return calculation, but my total portfolio (excluding house and car) is down about $90,000 from what it was when I retired in August 2016. That is the raw value including subtractions for annual spending.

Doing a rough calculation guessing at the average annual spending for the first 5.5 years and adding that back to the total, I think my annual rate of growth is between 2.6% and 3.0%.

That is probably due to a very high cash allocation during the boom years and increasing my risky equity allocation too soon.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

Is that portfolio growth after withdrawals? My LNW is down about 11% two years in, almost all equities and spending about 2%/yr. I'm ok and not worried about the long game but it's interesting. My LNW is about where it was when I made the firm decision and set my FIRE date so if it was enough then, it should be enough now 2 years closer to death (which I hope is still 40-50 years out if I am healthy enough to enjoy it).



Someday I look forward to BTD!

 

[street]

Is that portfolio growth after withdrawals? My LNW is down about 11% two years in, almost all equities and spending about 2%/yr. I'm ok and not worried about the long game but it's interesting. My LNW is about where it was when I made the firm decision and set my FIRE date so if it was enough then, it should be enough now 2 years closer to death (which I hope is still 40-50 years out if I am healthy enough to enjoy it).



Someday I look forward to BTD!

For me the growth I posted is just my investment funds. For it is very easy because I don't add money to or take away from those accounts. I use savings and SS for living and those numbers aren't used for calculations.

Saving has risen since I ER also, it has a positive balance. If I wouldn't have given to charities and family from that account, the percentage would larger.

 

[joesxm3]

My 2.6% to 3% is my guess of the portfolio return with expense spending factored out.

If I did an a annual rate including expenses it would probably be a loss of 0.6% per year.

Certainly not one of the stellar performers, but I think I can hold my head above water, especially if I can increase my equity allocation going forward. I actually have been increasing since all of my spending came out of cash.

 

[Whisper66]

Retired in 2015. Average growth since then has been 8.6%. Last full 7 years (2023 not included) averaged 8.2%. Asset allocation has varied from a high of 85/15 to 50/50 (equities / fixed).

 

[marko]

Perhaps another way to consider is the NET growth/loss over time. This would not only include organic growth but withdrawals and other additions.(aka Personal Rate of Return). Having a 9% growth isn't good if your withdrawals are 10% YOY.

Mine, for 5, 10 and 18 years has been ~6%, which I find hard to believe-- and conflicts with my spreadsheets--but that's what TRPrice calculates. This is due to when the withdrawals were made.

 

[Koolau]

Back of the envelope, I have about 50% more invested than when I retired. In the intervening years, I've taken 1% to 5% from my stash. That's all over 17 years. It sounds like about 3% growth off the top of my head. More than I need, I think, but YMMV.

 

[COcheesehead]

I am restating mine. Fidelity says 3.24% annually over the last 3 years. 9.1% annual over the last 7 years.