On Firecalc, when I choose the option of "A portfolio with random performance, with a mean total portfolio return of 5% and variability (standard deviation) of 10% (default). Assume an inflation rate of 3% (default)", it shows that even if I start with a portfolio of 1.5M and a withdrawal of 85K (5.6% withdrawal rate), with no pension and assuming $0 SS, I get this:
FIRECalc looked at the 221 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,500,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 221 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-2,744,487 to $1,500,000, with an average at the end of $-1,009,720. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 216 cycles failed, for a success rate of 2.3%.
_____________________________________________________________
Repeating this for a 4% withdrawal rate of 60K annually, I get this:
Your spending in every year after the first year will be adjusted for inflation, so the spending power is preserved.
FIRECalc looked at the 221 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,500,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 221 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-943,512 to $2,503,336, with an average at the end of $204,473. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 99 cycles failed, for a success rate of 55.2%.
_____________________________________________________________
This puts the fear of God in me because our success rate is so low in both scenarios and we'd have NOTHING left for our disabled son to live off of. How are other people able to make this work in retirement? Does everyone get a pension and is assuming that SS will always be around, or do they just have a larger nest egg or lower withdrawal rates?