Sizing the Housing Bubble

The stock market rallied on Friday after the GDP growth report was released.   Kind of odd that we'd get a rally on slow growth, but the market seems to be so fearful of more rate increases from the fed, that everybody is ready to party when they think the increases are done.

Anyway, the report showed that the cooling housing market is cooling the economy.    Several economic blogs posted charts that showed how slowing housing markets were predictors of recessions.

But what I found more interesting about the charts was that housing booms almost always start at the end of a recession.    So, it looks like the timing signal to get back into real estate will be even stronger than the signal to get out.

Here's a chart somebody made back in January that shows this relationship (white bands show recessions):

house4.1.3.06.jpg


(from this guy)
 
I just came back from an open house drive around St. Augustine, Palm Coast and Daytona Beach. (N/E, FL) One home was down $125k from 4 months ago, another $82k down and another $77k down. Varying from 6 - 2 months ago. There were some that had not changed much also also, all had been on the market for over 3 months, but were not selling according to the people attending. I met 4 owners and all had reduced their prices significantly and all said would still negociate heavily. (We are cash buyers in the $500k market range).

One person even said people simply are not willing to pay ongoing costs like taxes or the insurance because they are so high right now. Homes in the $200k - $250k range seem to be selling as normal when correctly priced.

All realtors we met said it was the best time to buy now and we should jump because of pending market adjustments in the upward direction, it is a lull in the market they said. All we met today were singing from the same song book. (We know why) I wonder how many people actually listen to realtors advice these days, unless it is legal or to do with selling or purshasing details other than price and market conditions. I feel some stoop to the unscrupulous car salesman tactics.

Jusy my observation today. Makes for a great afternoons entertainment. Unfortunately I made the mistake of telling one we were non contingent cash buyers and could not get out of the place for 30 minutes.

SWR
 
ShokWaveRider said:
Unfortunately I made the mistake of telling one we were non contingent cash buyers and could not get out of the place for 30 minutes.

I wouldn't personally buy now, but if you really had to buy a house right now, you could probably get away with a low-ball offer. The trick is to find somebody who wants out now and who also has lived in the home long enough that they'll still walk away with some equity.
 
wab said:
I wouldn't personally buy now, but if you really had to buy a house right now, you could probably get away with a low-ball offer. The trick is to find somebody who wants out now and who also has lived in the home long enough that they'll still walk away with some equity.

We do not have to buy now and neither do we want to. We do however enjoy looking at the market and watching the prices, at least for now that means down. We will be in the market when decent water property comes below $500k, they are about $625 right now.

SWR
 
If you see the property you want what is the harm in offering what you are willing to pay, even if it is 75% of the asking price?  They may reject it, but then contact you later when their need to sell reaches your offer price.
 
The housing market I live in is 57 percent overvauled. Pretty crazy to buy here, I just cant see them holding those kind of prices long term. But hell Ive been known to be wrong. (alot) :p
 
Shok, buy a mansion in London. $500 000 will get you the best. Get Healthcare, low crime, low cost of living from May through October.

Head down I 75 in November and stay wherever you want in FL til the end of April. ;)
 
...................on the other hand, you probably should have done it a couple of years ago! :'(
 
Zipper said:
Shok, buy a mansion in London. $500 000 will get you the best. Get Healthcare, low crime, low cost of living from May through October.

Head down I 75 in November and stay wherever you want in FL til the end of April. ;)

Sorry, no offence. I am very familiar with London. It is not my first choice in Ontario. As you mentioned the snow in winter is bad. we like to visit for Christmas and New year. Most of the family is in the Toronto Area so I would choose Guelph or Georgetown first.

SWR
 
Last night on the news they had a piece about the bubble bursting... but, it was for the McMansions.. the houses over 5,000 sq ft.. This one couple had downsized and bought their new home KNOWING they could sell their old home... but no offers at all... even after reductions

They did say the regular houses were still selling well... only the high end was bad..
 
Median price of a house in Orange County (CA) is still $800K, about 10% higher than last year but the sales volume is down by over 30%. It appears that the demand still persists in certain parts of CA.
 
Bigger, more expensive homes are taking the biggest hit around here as well...and the very low end. We had some people trying to sell their 2 bedroom one bath, 50 year old dumps (but on a large lot) over in a lousy town for $300k. They're off of dreamland and back to selling in the 150-200 range now.

This is my favorite. This guy bought this house build-to-suit probably about a year ago when prices were at the apex. You can buy the same house right now, just finished or just about to be finished, for roughly 75k less than he paid, with extras thrown in like rear landscaping and upgraded kitchens.

Apparently he never moved in. This is how he's selling his house. A piece of white construction paper taped to the garage door, written in marker. Couldnt even make it to the hardware store for a $5 "fsbo" sign. Its been like this for a couple of weeks now.

img_414273_0_103e5088ab5f620a2b7ea82bade5166c.jpg


I keep meaning to call him and see how desperate he is...
 
AltaRed said:
The property taxes and A/C would be eating his lunch!

Article about a show called "extreme home makeover" in which poor people got "free" remodels:

Article

Property tax bill likely to double; work's value could count as income
 
No free lunch, eh?

Here in DFW, prices haven't really bubbled much, but I still expect some ramifications from rising interest rates, overcapacity in general, and overcapacity of McMansions in particular.
 
wab said:
Article about a show called "extreme home makeover" in which poor people got "free" remodels:

Article

Property tax bill likely to double; work's value could count as income
It's still a good deal despite the extra tax.
 
realtor.com asking prices

our family waterfront area in palm beach county, florida

jan 40 houses for sale: avg $5,780,799 medium $4,800,000
feb 34 houses for sale: avg $6,118,352 medium $6,950,000
mar 34 houses for sale: avg $5,722,617 medium $4,240,000
may 32 houses for sale: avg $5,583,375 medium $4,495,000
july 31 houses for sale: avg $5,600,000 medium $4,170,000

my area of broward county, florida

jan 33 houses for sale: avg $727,151 medium $680,000
feb 39 houses for sale: avg $712,902 medium $627,000
may 59 houses for sale: avg $743,330 medium $650,000
july 51 houses for sale: avg $714,509 medium $645,000

just a few blocks from me you can pick up this dump for only $1,500,000 yikes (not sure, think it might be zoned residential/office type commercial,) even still.....
 

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"just a few blocks from me you can pick up this dump for only $1,500,000 yikes (not sure, think it might be zoned residential/office type commercial,) even still...."


Wow :eek:
 
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