ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
nunnun is in super cruise control as in all US stock index ETFs . 1/2 Total stock, 1/2 SP 500.
I'm in index ETFs some US, some International some Bonds with a dab of cash.
nunnun is ahead of me until the market tanks .
OK, thanks. Makes sense, bonds will be a drag in an up market, but they are there to provide some stability so one just has to accept that for the defensive position they provide in any down market.
There's sort of a maturity date to my picks and I feel like I shouldn't be judged until then (I'm not talking about the end of the contest). .... So yeah, no impressive results but I don't feel like it matters yet.
No, it doesn't matter yet, 'winning' or 'losing'. But I still don't see how selecting a time frame for each trade (using my previous phrase) can reasonably be expected to regularly beat the market. Your 'bet' either works or it doesn't in that time frame. I don't see anything that can be expected to make your selected bets have a better chance on average than the general 'market bet'.
Will we get enough of your trade 'events' in this contest to be statistically significant, or will this just be 'noise'? It will be interesting to see charts after some time. A strategy with a real benefit ought to get ahead and stay ahead - maybe not right from the start, due to volatility. But if it can't provide that in some reasonable time (and now you have ground to make up), what is the point?
-ERD50