Talk of an immediate economic ‘bounce back’

[rayinpenn]

While we all want a v shaped recovery (quick immediate bounce back) the likelihood of that seems unrealistic. Why? The underlying issue remains. Even with the latest data about people already having antibodies factored in, more than 80% of the country hasn’t had the virus. We all know there is no cure, and if you are one of the unlucky ones you could get sick, deathly sick, even die. Returning to work while absolutely necessary won’t alter key behavior patterns for those at risk for some time. The key questions for the thoughtful and those at risk are?
1. Will you be attending any large scale event?
2. Go to a restaurant?
3. Resume car shopping?
4. Rent that summer house (short term rentals are banned in many places)
5. Return to the hair cutter?
6. Go on a cruise?

The answer for many of us is an absolute no. Then there’s the question of how many jobs have simply disappeared? In my humble opinion talk of a recovery is wishful thinking and premature. Comparisons to prior man made crisis denies the unprecedented nature of the virus on a 21st century economy.

While a immediate recovery would be wonderful I think the prudent will plan for a gradual return to some new normal, not yet defined or understood.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Yes to 3 & 5, Absolutely not to all the rest.

The key questions for the thoughtful and those at risk are?
1. Will you be attending any large scale event?
2. Go to a restaurant?
3. Resume car shopping?
4. Rent that summer house (short term rentals are banned in many places)
5. Return to the hair cutter?
6. Go on a cruise?

 

[foxfirev5]

No to all. DW would be a yes to #5 only. Priorities.

 

[atmsmshr]

A couple more behaviors to add.

- Will you go to a sports arena or amusement park?
- Travel overseas for tourism?
- Airline travel in USA and hotel stay for vacation or visit?
- Not hesitate for elective surgery?
- Remodel the house interior while you live in it?
- Take in person adult continuing education classes?

 

[ShokWaveRider]

- Will you go to a sports arena or amusement park? - Nope, Never Did though.
- Travel overseas for tourism? - Yup
- Airline travel in USA and hotel stay for vacation or visit? - Only if absolutely Necessary, Outlaws are in Canada
- Not hesitate for elective surgery? - Nope, never had elective anything
- Remodel the house interior while you live in it? - Seems to be a life long chore regardless of the Virus situation, Our Home Depot and Lowes are jumpin'
- Take in person adult continuing education classes? - What!!!!!!

 

[Dawg52]

No to all. It's going to take a proven vaccine and/or drug to treat the virus for me to go back to a normal lifestyle.

 

[RetireAge50]

I will do all of the above. I don’t think fear will stop death but it does stop life.

 

[Aerides]

I haven't heard anyone serious talking about a V shaped bounce back, other than to start of pieces as what they know the general audience to understand, and then paint a very different visual picture.

 

[athena53]

1. Will you be attending any large scale event? No, but I never was fond of crowds anyway.
2. Go to a restaurant? Maybe. Depends on size and social distancing.
3. Resume car shopping? Ack. I hate car shopping. Would do it if I desperately needed to replace one.
4. Rent that summer house (short term rentals are banned in many places) I don't do this.
5. Return to the hair cutter? Yes, please! As long as the waiting area isn't crowded I figure this is pretty low-risk, and my cut is a straight blunt cut- in and out very quickly.
6. Go on a cruise? Already have a deposit on a small-ship cruise off Belize and Honduras in October, 2021. It's 70 passengers. Mega-ships out of the question for me. They always have been.

 

[Gumby]

The members on this board are not a representative group. Most other people in the world have very short memories and zero planning skills. They will soon do all those things.

 

[HF63]

You might consider adding one more 7. Flying.


For those of US w/ auto immune problems flying might be a tough one.

 

[Music Lover]

Although I rarely attend large scale events and have never been on a cruise, I'll get back to normal once we are "allowed". This is a virus but it's not Ebola or the Black Death.

 

[Dash man]

I look forward to being able to go to Mass again. I know they’re trying to figure out how it will work.
I’ll go get my hair cut and likely leave a big tip to help them out.
I may fly, but only to help my son to move near us.
We’ll cruise again after a few cruises have completed without issues.

 

[LRDave]

Although I rarely attend large scale events and have never been on a cruise, I'll get back to normal once we are "allowed". This is a virus but it's not Ebola or the Black Death.

Black Death was a bacteria and not relevant. Ebola is a very unsuccessful virus - its own worst enemy. Covid-19 is a spectacularly successful virus and human-kind is a very long way from understanding it.

 

[FIREd]

Here are my responses:

1. Will you be attending any large scale event? No.
2. Go to a restaurant? No. I have seen some proposals that would allow restaurants to reopen while maintaining social distancing. Under such proposals, I'd probably feel like the health risk is acceptable, but the "restaurant experience" would not be pleasant. So why bother?
3. Resume car shopping? Yes, if I can test drive the car alone.
4. Rent that summer house (short term rentals are banned in many places)? Yes, though I'd thoroughly disinfect the place first.
5. Return to the hair cutter? Not for now. I haven't seen credible proposals to minimize the health risks at barber shops.
6. Go on a cruise? No (I never wanted to take a cruise anyway).
7. Go to a sports arena or amusement park? No.
8. Travel overseas for tourism? No.
9. Airline travel and hotel stay for vacation or visit? Airline Travel: No; Hotel stay: perhaps (small hotel, limited staff intrusion in my room, etc...).
10. Not hesitate for elective surgery? I'd hesitate.
11. Remodel the house interior while you live in it? A small project, Yes. A gut job no. There could be a second round of mandatory confinement and I don't want to be stuck for weeks in a home looking like a mess.
12. Take in person adult continuing education classes? It depends on the class size.

Overall, I will evaluate each situation and decide for myself whether the risk is acceptable when taking appropriate precautions. But I don't see a V-shaped recovery.

 

[Music Lover]

Black Death was a bacteria and not relevant. Ebola is a very unsuccessful virus - its own worst enemy. Covid-19 is a spectacularly successful virus and human-kind is a very long way from understanding it.

There are now indications that 10's of millions have been infected with no symptoms. Of course we won't know for sure until more people are tested but the few studies done so far support that.

I know people financially impacted by this. I'll save my fears for something more serious.

 

[aiken]

The answer might be yes to all of these IF I had a COVID-19 positive antibody test that I could trust...or maybe have a less than perfect test repeated 3x. Absent that, I could see myself doing 3-5. I'd also stay in a hotel room. I think the more upscale hotels will have to take sanitation more seriously...wiping down extensively. I'd bring my arsenal of wipes and lysol as a back up. I won't get on a cattle car airplane though. Our favorite restaurants are what we miss most during this pandemic.



These answers should be different for people like me who are over 60, versus younger fit folks who statistically are much less likely to suffer a bad outcome from the virus.

 

[HadEnuff]

NOPE to all...but then there is nothing in that list that I find hard to resist. What will hurt will be not seeing my kids and grandkids this summer. But increasingly, I feel that is a likely outcome.
DW and I are scheduled to snowbird back to Florida in late November. That may work out, or not. Have to see what that second wave (or maybe even 3rd wave) look like.

That assumes we don't get sick and die ourselves.

 

[Aerides]

Anything "normal" I resume will be done >2 weeks after restrictions are lifted. I will not be part of the first rush, and I will wait and see and watch for infection spikes before I dip my toe into anything.

1. Will you be attending any large scale event? - lol no, and I think those will not exist in 2020 (thinking cons and such)

2. Go to a restaurant? - maybe only outdoor seating at our favorite sushi place. They have only a few outdoor tables, and one is way more than 6 feet from the others. We're very regular there, and go on the early side, so we plan to reserve that and no other restaurant outings until things look a lot better...and if they get worse we'll curtail that again

3. Resume car shopping? - don't need to

4. Rent that summer house (short term rentals are banned in many places) - not any plan, but as far as hotels if and when it will be higher end than lower, and next year at the soonest, assuming much more is known and more testing is being done, and no 2nd/3rd wave

5. Return to the hair cutter? yes, but I know their layout, which is good and spaced pre-covid, so assuming they limit patrons and use masks, I'll go once. I get one treatment done every 4 months and I'm at the end of it now...my stylist is the owner and I've been going to her for 10 years so I'm sure I can figure something out.

6. Go on a cruise? - never done, would never do a big ship anyway

7. Fly - not for a while, 2021 likely

 

[brewer12345]

The idea of a V shaped recovery is patently absurd. Snap your fingers and everyone is back to normal by the end of the summer with no testing, treatment or vaccine. Yeah, right.

 

[Music Lover]

The idea of a V shaped recovery is patently absurd. Snap your fingers and everyone is back to normal by the end of the summer with no testing, treatment or vaccine. Yeah, right.

No one said that.

However, it's inevitable that once the cases drop off there will be a gradual return to some semblance of normalcy.

 

[cooch96]

I will do all of the above. I don’t think fear will stop death but it does stop life.

+1

 

[Spock]

I won't be spending on anything other than household goods, food, and utilities
because of the inflation in household goods and food.

 

[brewer12345]

No one said that.

However, it's inevitable that once the cases drop off there will be a gradual return to some semblance of normalcy.

By when? 2023? Hard to imagine we will not have double digit unemployment through much or all of next year.

 

[target2019]

While a immediate recovery would be wonderful I think the prudent will plan for a gradual return to some new normal, not yet defined or understood.

I agree with your conclusion. The previous "normal" activity that drove GDP will no longer apply 100%. There will be significant destruction of businesses and permanent loss of jobs. This will place a heavy toll on social support services for years.

During this recession some businesses are strengthening their position (Amazon, Walmart, etc.), while others fail. It looks to me like lower average wages for the general population.

I know that many are hopeful for a V recovery, but I am ready for a series of V's. Worst case on my radar is a Greater Depression, driven by another COVID-19 wave in the Fall.

The questions are interesting, and point to the types of economic activity that are important. I see us tightening our belt 15-25%, so 'No' to most of those economic activities.