The Electric Vehicle Thread

[Midpack]

They're planning on selling in the US? I don't think any of their EVs are sold in the US?

When they have to comply with US regulatory requirements, will the price stay the same?

BYD sold their 1000th car in Norway last Dec. I suspect Norway has higher safety standards as well, though I have no idea how they compare to the US. And this model is now available for pre-order in Europe.

I’d be surprised if we don’t see Chinese EVs here, just a matter of when. Battery supply might delay rollout here too.

https://en.byd.com/news/byd-delivers-1000th-pure-electric-tang-suv-in-norway/

 

[Koolau]

More anti EV comments - y’all can’t wait to find anything negative to talk about can you??


C

Sorry, I'm just not seeing what you seem to be seeing. We're discussing the advantages, disadvantages, positive and negative (sorry 'bout that) issues and limitations surrounding changing of a paradigm.

If you want to be a cheerleader for EVs, I think that's great. Others of us are seeing some potential issues which need to be addressed. I don't think that's "anti" anything. Recognizing issues leads to their eventual solution. In the case of EVs, they have made amazing strides and continue to become better. Like ICE cars (even after over 100 years), they are not perfect and need yet more tweaking if they are to replace ICE. YMMV

 

[aja8888]

BYD sold their 1000th car in Norway last Dec. I suspect Norway has higher safety standards as well, though I have no idea how they compare to the US. And this model is now available for pre-order in Europe.

I’d be surprised if we don’t see Chinese EVs here, just a matter of when. Battery supply might delay rollout here too.

https://en.byd.com/news/byd-delivers-1000th-pure-electric-tang-suv-in-norway/

I mentioned above that Polestar has dealers here in the US already and their cars are built in China. Geely is the parent company. These are Chinese cars.

 

[Fermion]

It is easy to estimate the necessary grid improvements that will need to be made.

Autos in the USA consume 135 billion gallons of gasoline per year.

The average fuel efficiency of cars in the USA in 2020 was 25.7mpg

The average EV consumes 34.6kWh to travel 100 miles, or 8.9kwh to go 25.7 miles (equal to the gallon of gasoline use on average).

So....the electrical grid needs to provide an extra 8.9kwh x 135 billion, or

1.2 quadrillion watt-hr annually.

A nuke plant running flat out produces about 5 trillion watt-hr annually.

So we just need to build 240 nuke plans.

I must have screwed up my math somewhere, because looking it up, the USA only generated 4.12 trillion kwh in 2021.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%204%2C116%20billion,facilities%20in%20the%20United%20States.

Wait, no, that is right. kwh. So that is 4.12 quadrillion wh. I said converting all autos to electricity would need 1.2 quadrillion watt-hr, which is an increase in utility electricity production of 29%. This is not vastly far off from your estimation of a needed 16% increase, so math checks out.

It still looks like that could be provided by 240 nuke plants.

 

[Koolau]

I must have screwed up my math somewhere, because looking it up, the USA only generated 4.12 trillion kwh in 2021.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%204%2C116%20billion,facilities%20in%20the%20United%20States.

Wait, no, that is right. kwh. So that is 4.12 quadrillion wh. I said converting all autos to electricity would need 1.2 quadrillion watt-hr, which is an increase in utility electricity production of 29%. This is not vastly far off from your estimation of a needed 16% increase, so math checks out.

It still looks like that could be provided by 240 nuke plants.

No problem! Then we'll have to upgrade the grid to handle all those extra kwh. No problem! Oh, but none of it in MY back yard.

 

[Fermion]

No problem! Then we'll have to upgrade the grid to handle all those extra kwh. No problem! Oh, but none of it in MY back yard.

It also doesn't solve the issue that a large portion of the current electrical production is from oil/coal/gas, which we want to get away from.

Might need a bit more than 240 nuke plants.

So...that is only maybe 5 per state. Sucks to be Rhode Island, but Texas could find a place for them.

 

[Koolau]

It also doesn't solve the issue that a large portion of the current electrical production is from oil/coal/gas, which we want to get away from.

Might need a bit more than 240 nuke plants.

So...that is only maybe 5 per state. Sucks to be Rhode Island, but Texas could find a place for them.

Heh, heh, by the time this all gets sorted out, maybe the Navy will decommission an aircraft carrier and park it in Pearl Harbor so we can power our cars from its nuclear reactor. YMMV

 

[Fermion]

Hawaii should be able to do something with all that volcanic activity and ocean water...seems like almost free energy waiting to be tapped.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50
... RE your statement): "Marginal demand on the grid is almost completely being added with renewable resources. " - Simply not true. Look at how this works: ....

Please re-read what I wrote…. We are talking about different things. You are looking at things second to second. Yes, if I turn on the lights right now, they add that power with fossil fuels. I was talking about the grid over time - power demand this year vs next year and the year after. New grid capacity is being added by primarily renewable resources. ...


Again, EVs will continue to get greener over time and the additional grid power that is added will be from renewable sources. You have to look at things over their lifetime (i.e. lifetime CO2 production) based on reasonable projections. You can easily look up the source of planned grid power additions.
...

I did go back and re-read what you wrote, and I stand by what I said.

It is wrong for you to say that just because some RE was added to the grid, that that is supplying added marginal demand. It does not work that way. Just like you correctly stated how it works today ("Internetskate: Yes, if I turn on the lights right now, they add that power with fossil fuels."), that's how it continues to work, until RE is so abundant as to regularly supply an excess above current demand so that excess is available for the added marginal demand (from EVs in this context).

Now, you can envision a scenario where we get there, it isn't impossible, but it's awful hard to see any path that gets us there. Take any rough estimate from below 16%~ 29% - that's a lot of extra demand to be regularly provided by RE, especially when RE is intermittent. To have that much available either means a *lot* of storage, and/or a *lot* of over-capacity installed for wind/solar, so that production can still be met on not-so-sunny-windy days. I think earlier we came up with some numbers like 5x over capacity to smooth *most* of slack sun/wind periods. And that's after we get to near 100% RE on the grid to begin with!

OK, I had to go look what thread we were in (the RE thread or EV), this is EV so I'll just say EVs have some positives for some people, so buy them if you like. I just don't 'buy' the argument that EVs are going to do much at all positive for the environment. And from an opportunity cost view, they may very well be hurting it, because they draw attention and $ from other likely more beneficial and cost-efficient methods of making improvements.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Hawaii should be able to do something with all that volcanic activity and ocean water...seems like almost free energy waiting to be tapped.

I was surprised to find this:

https://www.energy.gov/eere/geother...power plant provides,the Big Island of Hawaii.

This geothermal power plant provides about 30% of electricity demand on the Big Island (Puna) of Hawaii.

-ERD50

 

[Koolau]

Hawaii should be able to do something with all that volcanic activity and ocean water...seems like almost free energy waiting to be tapped.

Heh, heh, the devil is always in the details.

Yes, we have lots of volcanic activity, but the same volcano that supplies your heat source may just up and bury your geothermal plant as happened to the one plant we have. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puna_...and resumed power generation in November 2020.

So far, ocean water generation of electricity has been almost exclusively employed where tides are high and fill a controlled body of water. Hawaii has no such area and our tides are quite modest. Then, there are the hurricanes which would tend to wreck most man-made structures meant to "tame" the sea.

Oh, and no matter WHAT anyone does in an attempt to harass mother nature for "free" energy, there will be half a dozen groups intent on making it impossible or too expensive to pursue. I've mentioned here before how groups protested the building of 13 (yes, 13 whole) windmills! They chained themselves to fences and blocked trucks, got arrested, got released, went back out and got arrested, etc. etc. Didn't stop the windmills but definitely increase the fixed costs which (with windmills - especially 7500 miles from where they are built) are incredibly expensive for the marginal power they produce. You can decide if they are an eye sore as YMMV.

 

[ERD50]

Heh, heh, the devil is always in the details.

Yes, we have lots of volcanic activity, but the same volcano that supplies your heat source may just up and bury your geothermal plant as happened to the one plant we have. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puna_...and resumed power generation in November 2020. ....

The plant was shut down shortly after the start of the May 2018 lower Puna eruption, and resumed power generation in November 2020.[1] The eruption had caused lava to flow over a PGV power substation, a warehouse and at least three geothermal wells that had been preventatively quenched and capped when lava fountains erupted nearby, eventually also cutting off road access.[2][3]

Ooops! So even Geothermal Energy is 'intermittent'? No problem, we just need 2.5 years of battery back up!

The above is a not-so-serious comment. Any power plant can suffer a failure and extended outage, it doesn't mean the technology is no good. It just goes to show, these things are complex. I'd bet that on average, Iceland has done pretty well with their geothermal.

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

Might need a bit more than 240 nuke plants.

.

The power has to come from somewhere and renewables can't do the job at this time. Already we are seeing predictions of more power cutbacks in many states. The problem is here, now. Not 10-30 years in the future.

Apparently, the Feds are willing to offer states some cash to overhaul aging Nukes so they can run a few more years. I think California is considering some to keep its Diablo plant running longer.

Somehow, our politicians have figured out that freezing in the dark in the Winter and/or sweating while the food thaws and spoils in the Summer are not great ways to get votes. Imagine that.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

The first time I saw Tesla's needlessly gimmicky door handles, I knew I'd never want one. Now a lawsuit blames them for a doctor's death in a fiery crash. https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/lawsuit-teslas-door-handles-blamed-for-broward-doctors-death/2770024/

 

[Koolau]

The power has to come from somewhere and renewables can't do the job at this time. Already we are seeing predictions of more power cutbacks in many states. The problem is here, now. Not 10-30 years in the future.

Apparently, the Feds are willing to offer states some cash to overhaul aging Nukes so they can run a few more years. I think California is considering some to keep its Diablo plant running longer.

Somehow, our politicians have figured out that freezing in the dark in the Winter and/or sweating while the food thaws and spoils in the Summer are not great ways to get votes. Imagine that. :roll eyes:

Heh, heh, hopefully the various political parties will finally realize it's actually the public that usually ends up putting them in office and not their reliable internal voting blocks. I'll say no more but YMMV.

 

[misanman]

Apparently, the Feds are willing to offer states some cash to overhaul aging Nukes so they can run a few more years.

The Palisades nuclear facility in Michigan was shut down last week. There was some last minute talk about trying to keep it open but the operators basically said that they'd been preparing to shut it down for ten years or more and you couldn't just say "keep it open" at the last minute.

 

[RobLJ]

Ooops! So even Geothermal Energy is 'intermittent'? No problem, we just need 2.5 years of battery back up!

The above is a not-so-serious comment. Any power plant can suffer a failure and extended outage, it doesn't mean the technology is no good. It just goes to show, these things are complex. I'd bet that on average, Iceland has done pretty well with their geothermal.

-ERD50

Geothermal supplies just below 10% of Northern Nevada's energy and there is quite a bit more potential for it. Unfortunately, not many states have this capability, due to Nevada's numerous mountains and thermal resources.

 

[NW-Bound]

... I'd bet that on average, Iceland has done pretty well with their geothermal.

-ERD50

Geothermal in Iceland is crazy. The guy in the video below can get steam of 170c (338F) to heat an oven to bake bread.

I wonder if there's danger that a fissure may open up under your bed one night and cook you alive.

 

[RonBoyd]

How Much Range You Really Need in an Electric Car

Know your needs

US Bureau of Transportation Statistics has long documented the average personal car clocks about 14,500 miles a year -- or under 40 miles a day in a combination of commute, shopping, errands and pleasure trips. It may surprise many drivers to know that only 15% of those trips are commutes, with a much larger 45% being shorter runs for shopping and errands, and 27% for social trips or meeting friends.

A recent survey sponsored by Castrol found that a stout 319 miles of range is the mental tipping point for many US consumers to consider an EV. Assuming an average of 40 miles per day, that 319-mile range equates to needing a full charge only every six days, even assuming the driver never depletes their car's battery below 20%. For drivers who have access to home charging, this suggests a desire for range that is more emotional than rational.

Finally, a less-considered option: Do you need a pure electric car or a plug-in hybrid? A Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid offers 42 miles of pure electric range under most driving conditions, enough for most daily needs before a 4.5-hour Level II full charge that's easily accomplished overnight, every night.

Whether you're considering a pure EV or plug-in hybrid, don't let perfect become the enemy of good.

FWIW, Our Pacifica Hybrid has a 34-mile EV range. We have exceeded it twice -- 32° temp required high heater use. It takes less than two hours to charge from depleted to full -- level 2 outlet.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/...ally-need-in-an-electric-car/#ftag=MSFf70f0e2

 

[travelover]

.........FWIW, Our Pacifica Hybrid has a 34-mile EV range. We have exceeded it twice -- 32° temp required high heater use. It takes less than two hours to charge from depleted to full -- level 2 outlet.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/...ally-need-in-an-electric-car/#ftag=MSFf70f0e2

I'd seriously consider a plug in hybrid as our next second car. 99% of our trips could be on electricity and any longer trips are covered with the gas engine.

 

[Chuckanut]

A recent survey sponsored by Castrol found that a stout 319 miles of range is the mental tipping point for many US consumers to consider an EV. Assuming an average of 40 miles per day, that 319-mile range equates to needing a full charge only every six days, even assuming the driver never depletes their car's battery below 20%. For drivers who have access to home charging, this suggests a desire for range that is more emotional than rational.

That's an average. But, I wonder what the figures were for states West of the Mississippi, where driving between major cities an easily be a 100+ mile round trip.

On my recent road trip to a neighboring state, it was almost 500 miles to get there. Some of it was mountainous driving over various passes, climbing a few thousand feet each time. I would love to see the stats for those two states.

 

[NW-Bound]

For a family or couple with two cars, it's easy to have one car being an EV.

And it does not need super long range either. Perhaps 100-150 miles or so will be plenty.

 

[travelover]

That's an average. But, I wonder what the figures were for states West of the Mississippi, where driving between major cities an easily be a 100+ mile round trip.

On my recent road trip to a neighboring state, it was almost 500 miles to get there. Some of it was mountainous driving over various passes, climbing a few thousand feet each time. I would love to see the stats for those two states.

An all electric car probably won't be a good choice for some people, but for probably the majority of Americans and Europeans for that matter, a much shorter range would actually be fine, especially as a second car. And then there is always the plug in hybrid for the in betweeners.

 

[Chuckanut]

For a family or couple with two cars, it's easy to have one car being an EV.

I agree with the above.

And, about 36% of people over age 65 are single. 27% live alone.

 

[NW-Bound]

I agree with the above.

And, about 36% of people over age 65 are single. 27% live alone.

Well, those single people should better not wander too far from their home, so they can own a short-range EV.

Or they can have 2 cars, one being an ICE car or a longer-range EV. You can have 2 lesser cars, for the price of a fancy one.

Or if they want to go on a road trip, then rent a different car with a better range than their own.

Money can solve a lot of problems.