Thoughts on TESLA

[Running_Man]

Implied cost 8 years from now. When if it's not attained how many will remember?

Yes I am sure you will go to where you can do Elon's battery swap to get that done in 60 seconds.

 

[bobandsherry]

Yes I am sure you will go to where you can do Elon's battery swap to get that done in 60 seconds.

Probably just an OTA update... J/k [emoji39]

 

[eroscott]

Check out the roof on these Tesla Factories. Lot of good stuff in the Impact Report.

Via:

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf

 

[ERD50]

Check out the roof on these Tesla Factories. Lot of good stuff in the Impact Report. ...

Via:

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf

Can you decode some of this 'good stuff'? I see in that report:

Over 550K Tesla vehicles have been sold, and they have driven over 10B miles to date, resulting in a combined savings of over 4M metric tons of CO2. This is the equivalent of saving emissions from being released into the environment from over 500K ICE vehicles with a fuel economy of 22 miles per gallon (MPG).

Where do those numbers come from? Most of the Teslas were sold in 2017-2018, so it should compare to new cars - the latest I found in a quick search was 2017 -

https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report

In model year 2017, the average estimated real-world CO2 emission rate for all new vehicles fell by 3 grams per mile (g/mi) to 357 g/mi, the lowest level ever measured. Fuel economy increased by 0.2 miles per gallon to 24.9 mpg, achieving a record high.

Why does Tesla use 22 mpg, and not 24.9? I wonder about their CO2 numbers as well. And how do they determine the CO2 for a Tesla?

Does it include embodied emissions, those battery packs don't get made w/o any CO2?

We've seen plenty of fuzzy/phony numbers from Musk, there is plenty of reason to be skeptical of these numbers. I recall that the "wheel-to-well" document that was taken down from Tesla's site assumed the entire fossil element of the grid was 60% efficient combined cycle gas turbines, which just wasn't and isn't true. But it made Tesla look better for CO2, (until they took it down).

Good stuff, or good fluff?

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

.... The government is not concerned with the issue of being better off, but with eliminating ICE vehicles.

... a timeline ... . Seven nations do, as early as 2025.
....

According to climateprotection.org, there are 18 nations with a roadmap. They have a list of the timelines.

A roadmap is a plan, and I supplied the best description of 18 countries plans regarding banning ICE's, EV targets, implementation dates and other information. ....

Is any of this a "plan"? Can you show me a nation that is on a path to achieve a ban of ICE by 2025? That's only 6 years away, there must be some action now to achieve that.

My research does not back up your words. What I find is not a "plan", but only "talk". Very big difference. Here's one from one of the closest in - Norway for 2025 (emph mine):

https://qz.com/1341155/nine-countri...-combustion-engines-none-have-a-law-to-do-so/

In 2016, Norwegian politicians agreed to an ambitious goal of phasing out all conventional cars: “There is an agreement on a target of zero new fossil-fuel cars sold as from 2025. No outright ban, but strong actions required,”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Norway

Statistics from the late 2000s indicate that crime in Oslo is rising.[6][7] Some media have reported that there are four times as many thefts and robberies in Oslo as in New York City.[6][7] Since 2012, the German travel guide Dumont now describes the city as being unsafe for female tourists. The guide also named Oslo "The Crime capital of Scandinavia".[8]

I suppose these crimes could be eliminated by agreeing to an ambitious goal of 0% crime?


https://www.greenmatters.com/news/2018/05/18/Z1xXsKW/costa-rica-fossil-fuels

Costa Rica Plans To Eliminate Fossil Fuels By 2021

... With transportation being a significant challenge, it’s hard to believe that Costa Rica will be able to completely eliminate fossil fuels in the near future.

So less than 2 years away - anyone have an update on how Costa Rica is doing?

The point is, these goals are talk, not reality. It would be beyond risky to invest based on these 'plans'.

-ERD50

 

[Aerides]

Seems like a lot of talk but no legislation, as of last summer there were 9 countries discussing it:

https://qz.com/1341155/nine-countri...-combustion-engines-none-have-a-law-to-do-so/

In our lifetimes I think it's possible that a ban on manufacturing of new ICE vehicles might happen, but I don't think many of us would live to see multiple western countries rounding up ICE cars, or closing gas stations on large scale. Especially in recent years, ICE vehicles have come to expect a far longer active life, going from "10 years and you're gambling" to "eh, 20 if you treat it right" just in the last 2-3 decades.

I could be wrong (we all could).

 

[bobandsherry]

Interesting to see that Tesla doesn't have service centers in half the US states. Also notes that growth of service centers has fallen short of Musk's promises, but that seems to be BAU for Musk.

Back in October, I discussed how Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk finally realized that the*company's service was a big problem*for consumers. Between a lack of service centers and the lack of parts availability, repairs are one area where Tesla is not very impressive. At that time, the CEO promised some large improvement in the coming months (seen below), but his timeline has ended and little progress has been made. Perhaps it is time for a capital raise so that the company can build out enough infrastructure to satisfy all of its customers' needs.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254839-tesla-growth-plans-fall-short

 

[JoeWras]

That was one of his tweets yesterday in defense of the appreciating asset, said body designed for 1 million miles and battery replacement of Model 3 is 5-7K

That's fine, but a car is more than a body and battery.

Did he find a new way to make upholstery not wear? Does every car come with a portable garage to keep it out of the sun? Will all the switches and electronic displays survive through 10 years with low failure fallout? Will the A/C motor and baffles work without a hitch? Etc. An auto lives in an extreme environment of heat and moisture. It wreaks havoc.

And then you have the fact that consumer electronics advance. Some require hardware upgrades. Not everything is software upgradable.

 

[eroscott]

Something to think about when you are putting Elon Musk down.

 

[Running_Man]

Something to think about when you are putting Elon Musk down.

WTF you believe this ?? He has over 320 million in the bank, he has over 200 companies that are not TESLA that he transfers money around through, I can't believe people fall for this.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/08/investing/elon-musk-tesla-shares/index.html

He had so little money left after investing everything in 2008 that he bought another 10 million in 2018.

 

[beowulf]

+1 Why would anyone believe this crap? He’s still a billionaire. Tiny little violins playing to go with his whine.

 

[ERD50]

+1 Why would anyone believe this crap? ....

Three reasons that I can think of:

1) They think it sounds impressive, so they want to believe it.

2) They've lost all perspective.

3) With what we know about what's going on at Tesla - just read the recent posts, price changes, production numbers, service centers, the 'savior' Model Y not expected in volume until 2021, almost two years out (or if you believe Musk, "by the end" of 2020), any number of things that appear to be desperate moves - what else is a fan going to post? Anything they can to distract from what appears to be some bleak realities.

edit to clarify - When I say "believe", I'm not talking about whether Elon actually did turn over every $ of his liquidity or not, but more like "believe that this is important". It's no indication of whether Tesla will succeed or not, I'm sure many entrepreneurs put all they had into a venture, but we don't know their names, because they failed.

-ERD50

 

[Running_Man]

Elon Musk pledged his shares against a loan of 344 million from Morgan Stanley and another 279 million from an undisclosed lender, putting up his shares as collateral. This is effectively selling out his interest as if the price falls to within 50% of the value the shares are sold and ELON loses his shares and pays off the loan triggering a long term capital gain. In the meantime ELON has 1/2 billion to do with as he pleases. Which included purchasing two 20+ million dollar homes about 10 one million dollar cars.

It is exactly that "oh I give everything for Tesla" that people fall for, he has made sure he cashed out without being in a position of actually having to sell his shares and having a straw man to blame if the stock falls. If the stock doesn't fall he will just accrue future massive profits and avoid any taxes while he spends millions a year. since he takes no taxable income from his businesses.

 

[eroscott]

Looks like March 2019 was a great month in global Tesla sales per IEVs.

While we are awaiting aggregated sales data for the European market, registration data from over 10 countries already suggest sales of over 15,000 Tesla Model 3 in March.

It’s an all-time monthly record for any plug-in model, as well as one of the best results regardless of powertrain. You don’t typically see such high sales numbers in Europe for cars imported from the U.S.

If we add the estimated 10,175 Model 3 sold in the U.S., estimated 2,000+ sales in Canada and an unknown number in China, Tesla should be well above 30,000! Sounds like a new global monthly record for any plug-in model.

 

[beowulf]

What’s really strange is how people become “fans” of car manufacturers or other products. I could care less about Musk, his business, or any other businesses I buy from. It’s not as if they are the local sports team. Just large, profit making companies out for themselves. And, speaking of weird, I was driven home today by a Lyft driver in ....... a Tesla X. How does a Lyft driver afford a nearly $100K car? Nice ride, no gas cost, but how is it possible to make economic sense of it? I’ve been picked up in all sorts of Uber and Lyft cars, from Hyundai’s to Acura’s, but never in a Tesla, and certainly not an X. Each to his own, but I’m not going to be a fan boy for a product - unless I’m paid to be .

 

[kcowan]

How does a Lyft driver afford a nearly $100K car? Nice ride, no gas cost, but how is it possible to make economic sense of it?

The Lyft driver is using them as a hobby rather than a business. He already had the car and is seeking some "pin money"! I think this is what they are counting on since otherwise their business model does not work. There are stories from India about how drivers treated it as a business and were destroyed when too many drivers were signed up from their area. They could not compete with the part-timers.

I'm sure many entrepreneurs put all they had into a venture, but we don't know their names, because they failed.-ERD50

On the latest edition of Shark Tank, the promoter admitted that he had invested $1.75 million of his own money. The Sharks considered that to be negative and advised him to continue his quest without their money (Good money after bad!).

My own experience was having the clear vision to advise the entrepreneur to close his business when we had proved that the business model did not work. Not a traditional Angel role. The owner remains a good friend and he rebuilt his life and is now retired. Had I not been involved he would have destroyed his future. So understanding the mental state of Elon is essential. He is all in except for his other holdings!

 

[ERD50]

What’s really strange is how people become “fans” of car manufacturers or other products. .... .

Oh, I don't know. If a company makes a really great product, provides really great service, and/or is doing something great for the world, why not be a 'fan'?

And if EVs were really as great for the environment as the fans would like to believe, I'd be rooting for Tesla and other EV makers. But any benefit is marginal, I see no reason to promote them on those grounds. Buy an EV if you like them, but don't expect others to support or cheer your decision.

A friend used to say I was an Apple 'fan', but I had to correct him each time. I used their products, I liked them far better than Windows/Microsoft, but for me that was a low bar.

Now, I'm all Linux and Android, but others in the family have MacBooks and iPads. Pros/cons to each.

And let's not forget, the oil companies did more to "save the Whales" than any other organization or effort from wiki.

... through the early 20th century, the American whaling industry was overwhelmed by new, crippling economic competition, especially from kerosene, which was a superior fuel for lighting. New Bedford, once the fourth busiest port in the United States, gave up whaling.[45]

-ERD50

 

[JoeWras]

What’s really strange is how people become “fans” of car manufacturers or other products. I could care less about Musk, his business, or any other businesses I buy from. It’s not as if they are the local sports team. Just large, profit making companies out for themselves.

Usually, there is another element behind this such as ethical, moral or financial reasons. The product tickles someone's fancy AND they want to support it for another reason.

I admit I was a bit like this with Saturn cars when they came out. Dumb mistake on my part to believe GM would do things differently.

I mentioned before on forums like this, that are discussing a stock (the original reason for this thread), I've seen products get talked up by people for financial reasons too. I saw that on XM radio forums 15 years ago. It is an organic campaign to raise the stock price or keep a company going.

I have no idea what's going on above. I think a lot of it is motivated by perceived ethical reasons. Not that Musk is ethical, but that some consider EVs to be more ethical than ICE.

 

[ls99]

The Tesla car that keeps on giving.


I drove through Monroeville, stopping at the Mall, on my way to Tango dancing in Pittsburgh, wodered what the smoke was all about. Now I know.

What remains is a smoldering heap. Photos in linked article.

"
Firefighters say the vehicle caught fire in February in a garage in Fox Chapel.

The vehicle was towed to the shop in Monroeville on Wednesday and somehow caught fire again.

“We removed the car from the garage. A Tesla engineer removed the fuse from the battery pack prior to transport, indicating that would make the car safe for transport. We brought it here to Monroeville, arrived around 3:30 in the afternoon, and about 6:20, the car spontaneously caught fire,” forensic engineer David Bizzak said.""
"
The car burned for about four hours before firefighters were finally able to put out the flames."
Bold highlight is by me.


Tesla Vehicle Bursts Into Flames, Burns For Hours In Monroeville


Perhaps a new use for dmaged tesla car's is an industrial size oven where the burn can be used for local area heat and maybe getting rid of trash at the same time for more heat. That would provide some true environmental benefit.


Follow up question: One tesla car burning equals how many miles worth of pollution by a gas guzzler getting say 12MPG?

 

[eroscott]

I case there is any confusion I don't own any Tesla stock directly. I may have some Tesla stock indirectly through one of my Fidelity or Vanguard mutual funds. I've pointed to all those mutuals fund list in the past that hold Tesla.

I own a Model X and one of my kids owns a Model 3. My DW drives a Gen2 Volts and my kids also own Gen1 Chev Volts. At home, our cars are scheduled to charge in the middle of the night when are hourly rates go down and I have no impact on the grid.

Currently planning a Tesla Model X summer trip to the badlands, Peter Norbeck Scenic Byway, Beartooth highway, Yellowstone, Glacier National Park on the outgoing direction. Still planning way back.

Looking forward to a lower Canadian transcontinental trip next year. (grey icons).

 

[eroscott]

Tesla has impacted and motivated the electric car industry more than any player by far and motivated the big names to changed their plans. Hundreds of car companies have failed in the past 100 years. Big minds vs small/narrow minds.

Surprised more people don't get behind an innovative American car company that is also doing decent exports. I simply want the company to succeed and continue to revolutionalize the car industry. Hopefully an impact in the semi-truck short/long industry (fuel savings, city pollution, autonomous highway driving!!!), and the pickup truck industry (Rivian is pushing that too).

Small minded thinkers vs big minded thinkers. You see it in all walks of life. Co-workers, people you read on forums, local papers, big international papers, ...

https://electrek.co/2019/04/18/tesla-nod-vw-electric-cars/

List of defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States

14 Defunct Car Brands, and How They Failed
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/14-defunct-car-brands-failed/

 

[Chuckanut]

Follow up question: One tesla car burning equals how many miles worth of pollution by a gas guzzler getting say 12MPG?

One could ask the same question of the '85 Pontiac that leaked gas from around the carburetor. Or the two ICE engine cars a former co-worker had go up in flames for no apparent reason. Or the ICE delivery van that smoked up a local street last week when it caught fire.

In all four cases, nothing is proven one way or the other.

Is it so hard to realize we have to look at the total big picture?

 

[bobandsherry]

Surprised more people don't get behind an innovative American car company that is also doing decent exports. I simply want the company to succeed and continue

Not sure where you are getting a vibe of people not wanting Tesla to survive. The topic of this thread is in regards to TSLA as an investment. At current stock price, with nearly $45B market cap, I feel it is substantially over valued and is NOT A GOOD INVESTMENT opportunity. It's a case like on Shark Tank when the Sharks say they'll be a customer but not an investor.

 

[eroscott]

One could ask the same question of the '85 Pontiac that leaked gas from around the carburetor. Or the two ICE engine cars a former co-worker had go up in flames for no apparent reason. Or the ICE delivery van that smoked up a local street last week when it caught fire.

In all four cases, nothing is proven one way or the other.

Is it so hard to realize we have to look at the total big picture?

I recall early on when a Chevrolet Volt caught fire. All the ignorant (not knowing/admitting) people came up with great exclamations until they learned the statistics of how many gas cars catch fire each DAY!! Haha

Total number of reported highway vehicle fires in the U.S.

 

[bobandsherry]

I recall early on when a Chevrolet Volt caught fire. All the ignorant (not knowing) people came up with great exclamations until they learned the statistics of how many gas cars catch fire each DAY!! Haha

Total number of reported highway vehicle fires in the U.S.

Have you considered that ICE that catch fire are older cars? Have any stats that compare 3-5 year old cars and relative # of fires per 100k? Also difference is once Tesla battery burns seems its nearly impossible to extinguish vs ICE. But I get your point.