Thoughts on TESLA

[Ready]

What do you pay per kWh? Less than $1.00 for 60 miles sounds like maybe you are on a night time rate? Three miles per kWh is a pretty good figure, so 20 kWh for <$1.00 is < 5 cents per kWh, pretty low.

Yes, gas prices are up around here, I was seeing less than $2.00/G at most places, now closer to $3.00/Gallon.

But of course, if EVs take over the way some here say, there will be a lot of gasoline and refineries that want to keep busy, so gas will drop. Since it was $2 recently, it should easily go below that. And added electrical demand will mean rising kWh prices, and that demand will be keeping fossil fuel plants on line longer than if that demand did not exist. And you will have to be hit with road taxes. So enjoy it while you can!

I'm not sure I can take your "I like seeing how little it cost me to operate these cars" too seriously. IIRC, you posted some very high routine maintenance costs for your Lexus, far higher than any car I've owned. It's easy to spend much less than you did on maintenance, so that just doesn't align with you other comments on the subject.

-ERD50

My nighttime after 10pm rate when I do all my charging is .10/kWh. I was not referring to maintenance costs on the Lexus. Just gas vs electric. At 18mpg I would have spent $26 on gasoline at $4/gallon versus $1.00 in electricity.

 

[ERD50]

My nighttime after 10pm rate when I do all my charging is .10/kWh. I was not referring to maintenance costs on the Lexus. Just gas vs electric. At 18mpg I would have spent $26 on gasoline at $4/gallon versus $1.00 in electricity.

... A drive in heavy traffic from my home to Los Angeles, 60 miles, cost me less than $1.00 worth of electricity. ...

Wait a minute. At .10/kWh, $1.00 gets you 10kWh. If you are getting 60 miles on 10kWh, then the range of a 100kWh Tesla would be 600 miles! OK, a bit less factoring in charging losses of maybe 15%, so maybe 510 miles.

Somethings wrong, If you are getting 6 miles/kWh, get on the line to Elon, he needs to find out your secret! That's twice what you'd expect.

And let's wait another minute...

60 miles at 18 mpg is 60/18 = 3.33 gallons. Times $4/Gallon is $4⋅60/18 ≈ $13.33. That's about half the $26 you posted.

Hmmm a 2:1 error in EV's favor, and a 2:1 error against ICE, for a 4:1 exaggeration! Funny how these errors creep in favor of ones' view? We should always be skeptical, especially of ourselves!

And of course, there are plenty of cars with > 18 mpg if you are looking for low operating costs.

Well, it's getting late, I've had a few, so if I'm the one who made the error, I'll apologize in the morning.

-ERD50

 

[Ready]

Wait a minute. At .10/kWh, $1.00 gets you 10kWh. If you are getting 60 miles on 10kWh, then the range of a 100kWh Tesla would be 600 miles! OK, a bit less factoring in charging losses of maybe 15%, so maybe 510 miles.

Somethings wrong, If you are getting 6 miles/kWh, get on the line to Elon, he needs to find out your secret! That's twice what you'd expect.

And let's wait another minute...

60 miles at 18 mpg is 60/18 = 3.33 gallons. Times $4/Gallon is $4⋅60/18 ≈ $13.33. That's about half the $26 you posted.

Hmmm a 2:1 error in EV's favor, and a 2:1 error against ICE, for a 4:1 exaggeration! Funny how these errors creep in favor of ones' view? We should always be skeptical, especially of ourselves!

And of course, there are plenty of cars with > 18 mpg if you are looking for low operating costs.

Well, it's getting late, I've had a few, so if I'm the one who made the error, I'll apologize in the morning.

-ERD50

60 miles one way. So $26 vs $2 of electricity. Jeez. Do you just argue with everybody about everything? Is the experience I shared no longer relevant because it’s now $26 vs $2 rather than $26 vs $1? I simply shared my experience with my Tesla. I really wasn’t interest in getting into a debate about it with you.

 

[misanman]

So $26 vs $2 of electricity.

How does California charge EV owners for maintenance and improvement of the roads?

 

[Ready]

How does California charge EV owners for maintenance and improvement of the roads?

Starting in 2020 there will be an annual EV fee of $100 to replace the lost tax revenues.

 

[Ready]

This matrix provides a good summary of the variation in ranges you will see on a Tesla based on a variety of conditions. A Tesla can achieve far greater efficiency than the EPA rating at reduced speeds. On my trip to LA there was a fair amount of traffic and I only average about 37mph.

At 48mph the range on my LR RWD 18” with aero caps is 475 miles. One owner was able to achieve a record of 600 miles driving a steady 37 mph. I have an app that tells me my efficiency on each drive as well as overall. It says my driving efficiency is higher than 98% of all Model 3 owners. I guess I tend to drive like a little old lady.

https://teslike.com/range/

 

[ERD50]

60 miles one way. So $26 vs $2 of electricity. Jeez. Do you just argue with everybody about everything? Is the experience I shared no longer relevant because it’s now $26 vs $2 rather than $26 vs $1? I simply shared my experience with my Tesla. I really wasn’t interest in getting into a debate about it with you.

I'm not arguing with anyone, I'm trying to understand what you are saying.

I gotta run, but it sounds like you now are saying that " A drive in heavy traffic from my home to Los Angeles, 60 miles, cost me less than $1.00 worth of electricity. " really meant 120 miles round trip? That sure wasn't clear - don't pick on me for not understanding. How would anyone not relate 60 miles to $1.00?

If that was 120 miles, is it still $1.00? Then that's incredible, 12 miles per kWh, so 1200 miles for a 100 kWh Tesla. In "heavy traffic".

Again, I gotta run, that was a quick read, and again I will apologize if I'm misunderstanding, but please explain rather than attack, it's clear that your words are confusing, no need to get mad, just explain, please.

-ERD50

 

[Ready]

I'm not arguing with anyone, I'm trying to understand what you are saying.
-ERD50

Yes, you are. You nitpick every little thing you can find when someone makes a positive comment about their experience with an EV and quite frankly it’s getting exhausting.

 

[ERD50]

Yes, you are. You nitpick every little thing you can find when someone makes a positive comment about their experience with an EV and quite frankly it’s getting exhausting.

A 2:1 or maybe 4:1 "misunderstanding" is hardly nitpicking. I assume there was a purpose to that post, so why not clarify it for us?

"it’s getting exhausting."

Pun intended?

-ERD50

 

[Ready]

A 2:1 or maybe 4:1 "misunderstanding" is hardly nitpicking. I assume there was a purpose to that post, so why not clarify it for us?

"it’s getting exhausting."

Pun intended?

-ERD50

Let’s say my numbers were exaggerated. Let’s say I doubled my numbers, and the round trip cost was really $4, not $2 (which it was not).

Does it really matter? I was sharing an observation of how much more efficient my Tesla has been compared to my Lexus. I was not looking to debate whether everyone should go out and buy an EV, or whether I could have bought a more efficient hybrid, or whether I could have negotiated a better deal on my last oil change at the Lexus dealership.

I was sharing my positive experience with my car. No other agenda or point was being attempted.

 

[Ready]

FWIW, here is a screen shot of my trip to LA. I'll leave it up to ERD50 to analyze it and come to his own conclusions.

 

[Ready]

And here is a summary of electricity usage from my current month's utility bill, FWIW. This is the usage for my home and vehicle combined.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Yes, you are. You nitpick every little thing you can find when someone makes a positive comment about their experience with an EV and quite frankly it’s getting exhausting.

He is trying to exhaust you. Anyone who thinks differently than him (Euroscott, McNeil, you or myself) he nitpicks, attempts to mock, and tries to annoy them so they will go away. He's been doing it for a long time.

Whenever anyone says anything positive about EV's he does this.

 

[ERD50]

Listen, for some reason this thread gets heated, and the mods have put out several warnings. I'd like to see the thread live, there is some value in it despite the noise, IMO. I'm trying to keep it cool, but I really must respond to this:

Let’s say my numbers were exaggerated. Let’s say I doubled my numbers, and the round trip cost was really $4, not $2 (which it was not).

Does it really matter? ....

Of course it matters! You are trying to make a pro-EV point with numbers. Those numbers should make sense. I'm still confused at what the numbers mean. I think the simplest thing to do is just re-post more clearly what your intent was, with simple apple-to-apple numbers. Miles, kWh required for charging for those miles, and $/kWh - versus - Miles, mpg for those miles and $/gallon. It's simple, no need to confuse it with round trip versus one way, or anything else.

"Does it really matter?" - I'm honestly trying to help you here. If you want to make a pro-EV point, then make it. Yes, exaggeration and/or obfuscation makes it look like you are hiding something. Why exaggerate, the point should stand on its own?

... I was sharing an observation of how much more efficient my Tesla has been compared to my Lexus. .....

But the numbers don't seem to add up, so what kind of observation is that?

I'm not sure what you are so worked up about - I really don't think anyone has claimed that charging at home isn't cheaper than the gas for the same miles. There is no debate.

IIRC (I'd need to look up the specific posts, don't have time now), I think it was eroscott who claimed that Supercharger miles were 2x to 4x cheaper than gasoline miles, and that did not hold up. So there is a history of inflating these numbers. Why, I don't know, let the facts speak for themselves. Again, it makes the pro-EV argument weak when their numbers don't add up.

Yes, it's been discussed that if the future looks like some pro-EV people here have said, that it is likely that kWh prices will go up, more road taxes will be collected from EVs, and gas prices will likely go down. So the advantage may go away, or even become a disadvantage. But today, charging at home is expected to be cheaper than gasoline for those same miles.

I'll look at your image post when I have more time. But you are standing behind $2 in kWh charging got you 120 miles in heavy traffic?

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

He is trying to exhaust you. Anyone who thinks differently than him (Euroscott, McNeil, you or myself) he nitpicks, attempts to mock, and tries to annoy them so they will go away. He's been doing it for a long time.
... .

How about you try challenging my facts and figures, rather than just attacking the messenger?

... Whenever anyone says anything positive about EV's he does this.

I've mentioned the EV positives many times, I only challenge unfounded statements.

-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

To the people attacking ERD... and yes, it is attacking....


I am with him when he is talking numbers... it is math, so no opinions needed... so if you make a claim that you can go 120 miles on $1 or $2 of electricity and conventional wisdom and math would say otherwise then asking for more details is not an attack...


I will give an example on something completely different... when I was much younger I got into a heated argument with one of my friends when he wanted to buy a house.. I already owned one... he kept telling me that the net cost was going to X based on the savings he was going to get for his taxes and interest... he believed the spiel that the salesman was giving...


I tried repeatedly to say that he was NOT going to save as much money as they were telling him... I would know as I had done my tax return a few times with the deductions... first, he never took into account the standard deduction he already had.. next he put the savings and 100% of his variable tax bracket when in fact he would be dropping down into a lower bracket on most of that deduction...


The actual savings was probably half of what he thought... and I know he was surprised when doing his taxes and the savings did not show up... he was sold a pig in a poke and was upset... he had to change his lifestyle a bit to come up with the extra money he thought he would have but did not...


Now, if he were sold the tax savings at the real rate using the exact same info he would have been happy instead of upset.. so using real numbers can make a difference between someone being happy with what they purchased or someone thinking hey were taken...

 

[Ready]

I have no interest in convincing anyone to buy an EV. I was simply sharing my experience with my vehicle and somehow it got nitpicked to death with what felt like squabbling over whether it’s $1 or $2. So I’m not going to provide any more opinions on the cost of driving it. I provided the data. ERD50, or anyone, can use it if it interests them, ignore it if it doesn’t.

I’ll provide one more data point from my morning drive in case anyone is interested.

 

[Sunset]

I have no interest in convincing anyone to buy an EV. I was simply sharing my experience with my vehicle and somehow it got nitpicked to death with what felt like squabbling over whether it’s $1 or $2. So I’m not going to provide any more opinions on the cost of driving it. I provided the data. ERD50, or anyone, can use it if it interests them, ignore it if it doesn’t.

I’ll provide one more data point from my morning drive in case anyone is interested.
.....

I appreciate your telling of your experience with the Tesla. It's pretty interesting to me as I've considered getting an electric car, but cannot justify due to our style of driving.

We only do 2 kinds of driving now: limited driving in city, and at 3,000 miles it doesn't matter how big a gas burner we drive the cost is still low.

We also do multi-thousand mile trips with second vehicle, and there I do like the quick fill-up anywhere offered by gas. Plus we haul a lot of stuff, so need a large vehicle.

 

[MichaelB]

Let’s remember to debate ideas, not attack other members. Some may benefit from judicious use of the ignore function. Any more personal attacks and the thread is doomed, which would be unfortunate after more than 3400 posts.

 

[Running_Man]

Well today's presentation is interesting,
I think the idea is, since demand is slowing we will build cars for lease and lease them without depreciation. Spin off Tesla Taxi, who will buy the leased cars from TESLA and you are able to capitalize all production costs into the cars so there will be no losses, only income from the leases. Will need about 25 billion in equity raise to make this happen over the next 2 years. Elon showed a slide with 1,000,000 miles useful life of battery and car, generating 30K annually income per car.

The earnings and future sales announcement must be terrible based on the presentation, but if he is able to raise 25 billion then this operation can continue. This will of course dilute present stock owners but is the only way I see this can work out over the long run. Tesla bonds are holding at 86 as long as they hold up the plan could work.

 

[NW-Bound]

For Tesla to operate a fleet of driverless taxis, the car's autopilot must be Level 5.

This is highly unlikely to be achieved in another year or two. Musk said all the hardware was there, and only "software improvement" was needed. He said that when introducing the original Model 3. I see no reason to believe him now.

Here's a pundit opinion on this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lancee...t-level-5-target-looks-unlikely/#45f3ff954c78.

 

[Ready]

I don’t see a driverless Tesla network happening any time soon. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tesla operated ride sharing business competing with Uber, but with people in the driver’s seat operating exclusively Tesla vehicles. Maybe the vehicles would still be operating semi-autonomously but definitely nothing close to Level 5.

 

[aja8888]

Looks like a Tesla exploded in a parking lot in Shanghai and the incident was caught on video (here):

"A video posted on Weibo yesterday showed a Tesla Model S parked in a garage in Shanghai starting to emit smoke. Shortly after, the vehicle exploded and burst into flames. &#55357;&#56881;&#55357;&#56881;&#55357;&#56881; @elonmusk @tesla https://t.co/f7QEEldul6 pic.twitter.com/gTgZ4zniCd

— SHINE (@shanghaidaily) April 22, 2019"

Tesla is investigating.

 

[NW-Bound]

Looks like a Tesla exploded in a parking lot in Shanghai and the incident was caught on video (here):

"A video posted on Weibo yesterday showed a Tesla Model S parked in a garage in Shanghai starting to emit smoke. Shortly after, the vehicle exploded and burst into flames. ������ @elonmusk @Tesla https://t.co/f7QEEldul6 pic.twitter.com/gTgZ4zniCd

— SHINE (@shanghaidaily) April 22, 2019"

Tesla is investigating.

That is very peculiar. Usually a lithium battery only explodes when getting abused, not while resting. Must be some kind of hardware failures, for example the electronics to protect the battery and keep it inside the operating envelope. Well, things do fail.

I don’t see a driverless Tesla network happening any time soon. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tesla operated ride sharing business competing with Uber, but with people in the driver’s seat operating exclusively Tesla vehicles. Maybe the vehicles would still be operating semi-autonomously but definitely nothing close to Level 5.

Yet, driverless is what Musk claimed.

Tesla can claim many achievements and has done many "firsts", but it appears to me that Musk is now financially backed in a corner, and has to keep making exaggerated claims to keep the company alive.

 

[Running_Man]

That is very peculiar. Usually a lithium battery only explodes when getting abused, not while resting. Must be some kind of hardware failures, for example the electronics to protect the battery and keep it inside the operating envelope. Well, things do fail.



Yet, driverless is what Musk claimed.

Tesla can claim many achievements and has done many "firsts", but it appears to me that Musk is now financially backed in a corner, and has to keep making exaggerated claims to keep the company alive.

I am presuming but I think it is logical that Panasonic has told TESLA they must take the batteries they have contracted for, Elon can see through his sales figures they are short of that requirement, by a lot. In order to build cars he will lease them, make the arguement no depreciation is necessary and work on the self driving technology so that in two years it appears possible.

Then he has to pray the quality of the TESLA cars holds up over the years to make this a reality.

If you are buying the stock this is the plan, ELON MUSK stated last night the leasing program as a means of building of taxi fleet would take up all of their operating cash flow for the next 2 years.