Thoughts on TESLA

[Texas Proud]

Hmm, I thought so, but now I'm actually having trouble finding a clear distinction.

This ( https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/rocket_engine.htm ) said 'most', not 'all':

"Most rocket engines are internal combustion engines...", so I'm not sure where the distinction lies. I was thinking that in something like a Saturn rocket, the combustion takes place outside the chamber, but I guess inside the nozzle? Is that internal or external?

Seems fuzzy, but at a minimum, I'd say my statement is too strong, I'll see if I can still edit...

-ERD50

Not sure if this video is correct, but it looks like the combustion is inside the combustion chamber and that help increase the thrust... but no combustion is taking place outside the 'engine'....



https://youtu.be/SBmuc8kD08g





This video is from a recovered engine and the guy talks about the combustion chamber that is still there vs the rest of the bell that is not...


https://youtu.be/LGJ229CC0l8

 

[Lakewood90712]

The $20 million stock purchase by Musk will be new issue shares www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=TSLA&qsearchterm= from the talking heads

 

[bobandsherry]

The $20 million stock purchase by Musk will be new issue shares www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=TSLA&qsearchterm= from the talking heads

Found this:

Tesla confirms that it will issue and sell to Elon Musk $20 million of the company’s common stock during the next open trading window at the then-current market price, according to a filing on Tesla and Musk’s settlement with the SEC.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ms-to-issue-and-sell-to-musk-20-million-stock

Must be how Tesla is paying the $20 million fine from SEC. Must be getting tough for Tesla on cash flow and using this to bankroll it.

 

[Fedup]

Smoke and mirrors. Peanuts, it’s the same amount he’s ordered to pay the SEC.

 

[bobandsherry]

Smoke and mirrors. Peanuts, it’s the same amount he’s ordered to pay the SEC.

Nah, I read article that says this is in addition to the $$ he'll pay to SEC. My guess is it's how Tesla the company will pay for the fine.

 

[jazz4cash]

Normally an insider will announce a share purchase after it is completed so the action does not drive the price up. OTOH it’s more dilution for current shareholders. Musk being Musk

 

[JoeWras]

My Popular Mechanics arrived yesterday with an article on Elon. Today, they released the online version, which is the same as the print.

In Defense of Elon Musk

[opening]
He is under attack. For tweeting the wrong thing, for not making enough cars, for appearing unstable. Some of the criticisms have merit. Much of it is myopic and small-brained, from sideline observers gleefully salivating at the opportunity to take him down a peg. But what have these stock analysts and pontificators done for humanity?
[article follows]

The article is a series of thoughts from many different people, editors, etc. Mark Cuban even has a word:

When you invest in a company run by an entrepreneur like Elon, you are investing in the mindset and approach that an entrepreneur brings to the table as much as you are valuing the net present value of future cash flows. That is not typical for public companies that are overwhelmingly run by hired CEOs.

My only comment to Mr. Cuban is to look at Theranos (see other thread).

Myself? I still find Elon interesting and perplexing. He pushes the envelope, and blows away the rules. Mostly good. Except, well, public investors do have an expectation how their money is being used.

 

[Fedup]

Nah, I read article that says this is in addition to the $$ he'll pay to SEC. My guess is it's how Tesla the company will pay for the fine.

Of course it’s in addition, but I was saying it’s a small amount to his wealth he just blew by tweeting.

 

[NW-Bound]

A small firm that specializes in deconstructing cars to look for strength and weakness in each model just finished its analysis of the Tesla 3 after disassembling one.

“If that car was made anywhere else, and Elon wasn’t part of the manufacturing process, they would make a lot of money,” Munro said in an interview. “They’re just learning all the old mistakes everyone else made years ago.”

Funny how Musk would be better for Tesla if he did not sleep at the factory to "help", in addition to not tweeting. Look how Space-X does so well without his help. Musk may have the vision, but he is no scientist nor engineer, and should know to step back to let the experts do their jobs.

Munro acknowledged some strong points in the Tesla 3, particularly the motor which he said was more advanced than those of other EVs that he has seen.

This company, Munro & Associates, has taken apart more than 400 vehicles from nearly every car maker.

The article was first published on Bloomberg. A free copy can be found here: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/tearing...s-best--worst-decisions-41412.html?section=75.

 

[JoeWras]

Munro had a whole series on Youtube (Autoline). Very critical of build, but exuberant over the driving experience.

Like everything Elon, he left conflicted.

 

[bobandsherry]

The article was first published on Bloomberg. A free copy can be found here: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/tearing...s-best--worst-decisions-41412.html?section=75.

Thanks for sharing. The last statement is what is perhaps the most significant relative to Tesla as a investment rather than purchase of their car.

The trick now is turning this established technological advantage into consistent profits—and to do that Musk needs to hire executives with experience in the nuts and bolts of carmaking. If he does, Munro said, “he’s not far away from making money.”

Think Elon is willing to give someone else the reins?

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks for sharing. The last statement is what is perhaps the most significant relative to Tesla as a investment rather than purchase of their car.

Think Elon is willing to give someone else the reins?

Not likely. It looks like many engineers and managers butted head with Musk, and quit. Doubt if any good guy would want to work there, unless Musk is put out to pasture.

PS. I found curious the statement Munro made about Tesla workforce appearing bloated.

Tesla has roughly 10,000 employees in the Fremont plant. At their peak, Toyota and GM had 4,400 workers who made 450,000 cars a year at the same facility, said Ron Harbour, senior partner with consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Tesla, he said, has way too many workers....

“There’s no way you need 10,000 people even with three shifts and with a lot of work done in house,” Munro said.

Musk spent a lot of money to put in automation, in fact even bought a robot maker company. Later, he admitted that "humans are underrated". Yeah, right. Who knows how many guys he fired when they told him it was a bad idea.

As I said, Musk had a vision and may be a good salesman. He's no scientist or engineer. Did not have the training, nor the work experience.

 

[bobandsherry]

Not likely. It looks like many engineers and managers butted head with Musk, and quit. Doubt if any good guy would want to work there, unless Musk is put out to pasture.

What you wouldn't find this a healthy environment to work in:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/say...et-you-fired-off-your-projects-at-spacex.html

 

[bobandsherry]

Is this really how he expected to deliver a $35k priced model?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just introduced a 'lower-cost, mid-range' Model 3 via Twitter

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/tes...s-about-35000-model-3-but-not-base-model.html

 

[bobandsherry]

Interesting view point by someone who shorted Enron and Tyco.

Why Tesla skeptics are feeling so good

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/investing/jim-chanos-tesla-elon-musk/index.html

 

[ERD50]

Is this really how he expected to deliver a $35k priced model?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just introduced a 'lower-cost, mid-range' Model 3 via Twitter

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/tes...s-about-35000-model-3-but-not-base-model.html

Beat me to it! I just saw it here:

https://electrek.co/2018/10/18/tesla-model-3-mid-range-battery-pricing-structure/

Model 3 has been available for over a year now with the ‘Long Range’ battery pack version for 310 miles of range.

Without any option, the vehicle started at $49,000 – significantly more than the $35,000 base price promised by Tesla, but the company always promised that a base version was coming soon.

Instead of that version, Tesla is now launching a ‘mid-range’ battery with 260 miles of range for $45,000, according to an update to the Model 3’s online design studio:

I read this as they are "injecting" a $45,000 model, and will use that to stave off having to provide a $35,000 model.

Hey, this makes good business sense, you always try to upsell when you can. In fact, I'd say Tesla missed the boat by not having the price even higher while the tax credits are active. Just soak up that extra margin while you can, and lower the price from that higher level as the credits phase out. Same effective price to the buyer, so the demand should be similar.

I'm just not sure they can provide that $35,000 model at all. The gross margins now are what, ~ 25% on a $55,000 sale? So that's ~ $14,000. The $35,000 model won't cost so much less to make, mostly battery. But knock $20,000 off the sale price and that $14,000 margin went poof. They need to knock out $6,000 in cost just to get to 0% gross margin.

edit/add: Rough numbers and an assumed $200/kWh means they should save ~ $2,400 on the mid versus long range battery costs.


Sure, they should be gaining efficiencies, and getting in some cost reductions as things mature, but that's steep climb. And they need to borrow more money right? That will cost (not in gross margin, I don't think, but overall profitability).

Maybe they can pull it off, but it sure is looking iffy if a $35,000 car is the big seller. And remember, a $35,000 EV was what all the fans were sooooo excited about.

-ERD50

 

[samclem]

Is this really how he expected to deliver a $35k priced model?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just introduced a 'lower-cost, mid-range' Model 3 via Twitter

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/tes...s-about-35000-model-3-but-not-base-model.html

Right. The Model 3 with reduced range sells for $45K, but Tesla tells us that it costs $35K after federal and state rebates. But, it is really only $31K, Elon says, after the gasoline savings.

Wow. So my present car was free, because I've driven 100K miles, and fuel savings (compared to driving an M-1 tank) are greater than what I paid the car.

This is like DW with the dang Kohl's coupons.

Also--does it look to anybody else like these Model 3's are driving around with the protective stretch-wrap still stuck over the nose? Wrapped up like Auntie's sofa.

 

[JoeWras]

Wow. So my present car was free, because I've driven 100K miles, and fuel savings (compared to driving an M-1 tank) are greater than what I paid the car.

Ha ha! Thanks for the laugh this morning, samclem. Nice!

BTW, if you haven't read the Popular Mechanics article above, give it a quick graze and go to the author who compares Elon Musk with Mark Twain. It might interest you.

 

[kcowan]

...Musk may have the vision, but he is no scientist nor engineer, and should know to step back to let the experts do their jobs...

Not likely. It looks like many engineers and managers butted head with Musk, and quit. Doubt if any good guy would want to work there, unless Musk is put out to pasture.
...
As I said, Musk had a vision and may be a good salesman. He's no scientist or engineer. Did not have the training, nor the work experience.

...compares Elon Musk with Mark Twain. It might interest you.

There comes a time when the micromanaging entrepreneur cedes control to professionals. We seem to have passed that time for Tesla!

 

[bobandsherry]

Right. The Model 3 with reduced range sells for $45K, but Tesla tells us that it costs $35K after federal and state rebates. But, it is really only $31K, Elon says, after the gasoline savings.

Wow. So my present car was free, because I've driven 100K miles, and fuel savings (compared to driving an M-1 tank) are greater than what I paid the car.

Add in the "value" of owning/driving a Tesla, and then it's like they paid you!

Yeah, seemed like Musk was stretching hard this time. Perhaps he's talked numbers like that on previous price levels, but I don't recall seeing that.

 

[bobandsherry]

Beat me to it! I just saw it here:

https://electrek.co/2018/10/18/tesla-model-3-mid-range-battery-pricing-structure/

I read this as they are "injecting" a $45,000 model, and will use that to stave off having to provide a $35,000 model.

Hey, this makes good business sense, you always try to upsell when you can. In fact, I'd say Tesla missed the boat by not having the price even higher while the tax credits are active. Just soak up that extra margin while you can, and lower the price from that higher level as the credits phase out. Same effective price to the buyer, so the demand should be similar.

I'm just not sure they can provide that $35,000 model at all. The gross margins now are what, ~ 25% on a $55,000 sale? So that's ~ $14,000. The $35,000 model won't cost so much less to make, mostly battery. But knock $20,000 off the sale price and that $14,000 margin went poof. They need to knock out $6,000 in cost just to get to 0% gross margin.

edit/add: Rough numbers and an assumed $200/kWh means they should save ~ $2,400 on the mid versus long range battery costs.


Sure, they should be gaining efficiencies, and getting in some cost reductions as things mature, but that's steep climb. And they need to borrow more money right? That will cost (not in gross margin, I don't think, but overall profitability).

Maybe they can pull it off, but it sure is looking iffy if a $35,000 car is the big seller. And remember, a $35,000 EV was what all the fans were sooooo excited about.

-ERD50

Will this "smaller" battery actually have fewer cells, or will it be another hoax like they offered with the "S", where it was same battery just software controlled if it was the larger or smaller range battery?

According to an article I read, it was estimated that the Model 3 battery (present) was $11,000 to make, so not sure how they squeeze $4K in savings to lower to the $45K price tag. Not sure what other options and accouterments have changed that would contribute to the savings, but def seems like this will result in margin compression.

So I agree with you, getting down to $35K will be hard. The only option is IF they can lower the labor production costs. And maybe with increased volumes come efficiencies, but $15K seems like a stretch.

 

[38Chevy454]

So I agree with you, getting down to $35K will be hard. The only option is IF they can lower the labor production costs. And maybe with increased volumes come efficiencies, but $15K seems like a stretch.

I don't think having the production facility in San Francisco bay area, with HCOL and being in CA with a lot of extra company costs (read that as regulation, taxes, fees, etc) is going to help with lowering production costs on the cars. There is a reason that the rest of the automotive manufacturing has left CA, it is just not cost effective compared to other locations.

 

[bobandsherry]

I don't think having the production facility in San Francisco bay area, with HCOL and being in CA with a lot of extra company costs (read that as regulation, taxes, fees, etc) is going to help with lowering production costs on the cars. There is a reason that the rest of the automotive manufacturing has left CA, it is just not cost effective compared to other locations.

Recent article mentioned that # of employees involved in building the Model 3 was significantly more than what traditional auto manufacturer's use. So there's an opportunity for efficiencies for sure.

 

[NW-Bound]

Will this "smaller" battery actually have fewer cells, or will it be another hoax like they offered with the "S", where it was same battery just software controlled if it was the larger or smaller range battery?

I saw that the question was raised and Musk replied that the battery pack had a "non-cell" portion. I guess they left out some cells to reduce the capacity.

According to an article I read, it was estimated that the Model 3 battery (present) was $11,000 to make, so not sure how they squeeze $4K in savings to lower to the $45K price tag. Not sure what other options and accouterments have changed that would contribute to the savings, but def seems like this will result in margin compression.

I think Tesla is just testing the demand at different price levels. Perhaps the sale is slowing down, but slashing prices would alienate existing car owners. Leaving out some cells in the battery pack gives an excuse for dropping the price.

It was reported that the full-blown "self-driving" option was quietly dropped. The autopilot is still there, but the promise that it would be upgraded in the future is no longer offered.

Yep. Fully autonomous car is a lot harder than Musk thought. Even recently, I saw a bunch of Waymo cars out on the street, and they still had a driver on board. Still testing, and testing, and Waymo cars have lidars out the wazoo, while Tesla cars have none.

PS. Musk had said that other car makers use lidar as a crutch, and he intended to do without it. Yeah, but without lidar, Tesla car is like on a wheelchair, i.e. not really walking.

 

[indiajust]

Yugo quality? Not according to the current owners, professional reviewers and the NHTSA (which gives all three Tesla models their top safety rating). What do you know that they are missing?

https://www.industryweek.com/operations/tearing-apart-tesla-model-3s-see-musks-best-worst-decisions


Teardowns and reverse engineering is the kind of stuff I like to read. The hidden internals are what engineers know that customers are missing. Tesla has left a lot of money on the table by failing at the easy stuff. It's like a pianist that occasionally does Bach brilliantly, but can't plunk through Greensleeves without butchering it.



Keep in mind, NHTSA is a safety rating agency. Not quality. As far as I know, safety is not an issue with Tesla designs.