Thoughts on TESLA

[NW-Bound]

The idea that you'll see the same geometric gains you see in chip technology in other technology is flawed. "Moore's law" does not apply.

Car technology is very different from silicon chip technology. The steadily shrinking die size and the resulting geometric growth in circuitry on a chip simply isn't going to apply to things like electric motors and batteries (or solar panels for that matter). It's a very different type of physics involved.

Of course EV's use computer technology for control and such, but so do internal combustion vehicles as well. Both benefit from better controls. So that's nice. But not the same thing as Moore's law applying to cars.

People often confuse these things. Again and again.

+1

Cars are much more complex. Even today's ICE cars have multiple equivalents of smart phones in them. Then there is all the mechanical and comfort items.

They can also kill people, which leads to regulation and further testing.

This doesn't mean that EV takeover or SDC won't happen. It is just that the timeframes have to be realistic.

Yes. I don't think anybody disputes the fact that there will be more and more EVs on the road. But it takes time.

But we also need improvement to charging times, and charging infrastructure.

People think that all it takes is a cord. How tough can that be?

This is the problem with so many EV and clean energy fans. They don't understand the limits and possibilities of the technology, but they make these unfounded claims and I think they believe them. And then get all emotional about it and claim that those in the know are being negative, when we are just being realistic. And then encourage their politicians to support 'dreams' rather than facts...

Technology advances are amazing, but it still takes time. People mentioned smart phones, so allow me to share a personal experience.

In 1996, a small group of friends and I founded a small company to help phone companies prepare to deploy the first generation of digital phones in the US. The first-generation GSM network was deployed first in Europe, and the US was behind. The FCC was auctioning spectrum for cellular companies to bid on to acquire the right to commercialize in different areas of the US. The auction brought in billions of dollars.

There was a lot of work to do for the auction winning companies to prepare for the deployment. Part of the spectrum was used already for microwave towers, and their equipment had to be replaced to move their operation to a different band. Land lease had to be negotiated to deploy cell towers, etc... We did consulting to help them with the technical aspect of only a small portion of all the work that had to be done.

That's more 20 years ago. A lot of work was going on behind the scene, while all the public sees is the phone they hold in their hand. It took 2 decades to get to this point. And the infrastructure for the phones involves a lot less capital equipment than the physical structure to support EVs.

 

[eroscott]

Each hour of plugging into a 120V 15-amp outlet only gets you a few miles. It's OK for a 2nd car or if you are retired, but for a worker who commutes he cannot charge enough overnight to drive the next day to work.

3-5 miles per hour times 10-12 hrs plugged in. Means 40-50 miles of charge. Depends on your commute.

Both vehicles charging on 120v in my household are for commuting to work. Also see chart below.

https://gm-volt.com/2007/12/06/how-...f-commuters-drive-less-than-40-miles-per-day/

 

[Midpack]

Interesting how many experts there are here in wildly varying degrees, with little to backup the claims they're making as if they are self evident - or at least the rapid timing of change. Also interesting how some expectations for autonomous vehicles are being applied to EV (vs ICE) - they're mostly independent.

 

[oneill225]

Interesting how many experts there are here in wildly varying degrees, with little to backup the claims they're making as if they are self evident - or at least the rapid timing of change. Also interesting how some expectations for autonomous vehicles are being applied to EV (vs ICE) - they're mostly independent.

The thread concerns investment in Tesla which, necessarily, requires touching on other related topics like the transition to EV from ICE, battery tech, Tesla competition, etc...

I think the trend to EV is established (self evident). How fast it happens is, of course, the big unknown, but speculating about it is necessary if we are going to make investment decisions.

Regarding autonomous driving, Tesla is a leader in this technology and they are gathering millions of miles worth of data to bring it to fruition. Another great reason to buy Tesla now.

A preview for some of the EV options in 2019:
https://insideevs.com/lists/2019-electric-cars-new-evs/

 

[Chuckanut]

3-5 miles per hour times 10-12 hrs plugged in. Means 40-50 miles of charge. Depends on your commute.

Yes, it does. And for many of us, when we toss in a side trip to the grocery store, or to pick up the kids from daycare, or to visit mom and replace the burnt out bulb in the bedroom ceiling, we will easily exceed that 40-50 miles. Maybe these things happen only once a week, but that is often enough to be a huge concern.

IMHO, we will need small portable cold fusion reactors to make EVs practical. Just kidding. But, they will need a way to compete with the advantages of a fast fill-up at a service station. 5 minutes getting gasoline and my hybrid is good for 400-600 miles. That will cover a lot of commuting to and from work, and the side trips to put in mom's replacement bulb.

In regards to maintenance costs of the ICE vehicle, that will vary with the make and model. My old ICE 2004 Camry has gone nearly 200,000 miles with no major work to the power train itself. Some suspension work has been done, along with the usual stuff that wears out and/or needs periodic adjusting. My recent power train repair was installing a new radiator cap. OTOH, my neighbor has a 2000-something Ford that is paying for his mechanic's new Bayliner.

 

[ERD50]

I don't troll, ERD. ...

I did not say gas stations will be non-existent, ...

Yes you did!

See post #1552 ---

An interesting article from the WSJ that touches (partly) on how the mass adoption of electric vehicles will affect the future resale value of internal combustion cars and trucks:

https://insideevs.com/wall-street-journal-ice-cars-like-flip-phones/

Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

Sure sounds like trolling to me, when you make a ridiculous statement that you cannot back up, and when challenged for back up, you claim you didn't say it!

So I will disengage from what appears to be trolling from you until you back up your claims and stop contradicting yourself - it just is not a serious discussion.

If you want to be taken seriously, act seriously. You are making EV supporters look bad.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Yes you did!

See post #1552 ---
Sure sounds like trolling to me, when you make a ridiculous statement that you cannot back up, and when challenged for back up, you claim you didn't say it!
So I will disengage from what appears to be trolling from you until you back up your claims and stop contradicting yourself - it just is not a serious discussion.
If you want to be taken seriously, act seriously. You are making EV supporters look bad.
-ERD50

Come on ERD, stop playing gotcha games and address the substantive argument. Of course, the corner gas station will eventually disappear. I did not give a timeline for that to happen, however. You got me, though I did not remember saying that eventually they will not exist. My timeframe in my recent comments cover the 5-10 year period when I think EV will outsell ICE vehicles. Tell me ERD, will the corner gas station ever disappear? If so, when? Silly to play these games.

 

[NW-Bound]

When talking about smartphones earlier, I mentioned how Europe led the US in deploying the 1G GMS network starting in the mid 1990. That's more than 25 years ago. At this point, is cellular service dirt cheap in Europe?

Things are never as simple as people think. Just because something is available does not mean it is affordable to the masses.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by eroscott
3-5 miles per hour times 10-12 hrs plugged in. Means 40-50 miles of charge. Depends on your commute.

Yes, it does. And for many of us, when we toss in a side trip to the grocery store, or to pick up the kids from daycare, or to visit mom and replace the burnt out bulb in the bedroom ceiling, we will easily exceed that 40-50 miles. Maybe these things happen only once a week, but that is often enough to be a huge concern. ...

But this still may be very workable for some/many people.

Say your Level 1 charging takes care of your 40-50 mile daily RT commute, and you have 200 mile range. As long as you keep it near topped-off each night, you could do your 50 mile commute, and still have nearly 150 miles for unexpected trips.

Then you plug in overnight and get your commute charge in. It would be pushing it to use nearly all the 150 miles, as maybe you get home late and don't have a full 10-12 hours charge time. But you could easily handle something close to that.

Yes, that's not going to work for others, and those are the cases that will keep EVs from penetrating some market segments for a long time.

I guess I need to point out to some of the 'fans' here - the above comment from me was defending EVs, right? I'm not all negative as you may think, it's all about facts/figures.

-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

The gas station prediction is from me and it is not that they will disappear in 5-10 years, only that they will be on a steady decline due to the lack of demand. The 5-10 year prediction is also from me and it reflects the time estimate when the EV market will surpass the ICE market.

I hope there is no argument about the reduced demand for gasoline resulting in fewer gas stations, refineries, and associated distribution networks. This is an obvious outcome as electric vehicles continue to replace ICE vehicles over the coming years.

No, when the number of ICE cars start to dramatically drop then gas stations will be going away....



My issue with your stmt is that there is no evidence that EV sales will exceed ICE sales until about 2040 (look at my previous post)... and the number of ICE cars will still be high... will have to look, but I think that the raw number of ICE cars will be higher in 2040 than today, even with EV sales... so, the decline of gas stations will not even start prior to 2040 from what evidence I see...


I also asked in another post that you show evidence of your belief... you believing it is great, but there are a lot of people who believe in aliens without much facts...




Edit... decided to find and attach... it looks like 1 billion cars... and by 2040 1.6 billion... with 1 billion still being ICE... so gas stations are not going to start to go away in 5 to 10 years...

 

[ERD50]

Come on ERD, stop playing gotcha games and address the substantive argument. Of course, the corner gas station will eventually disappear. I did not give a timeline for that to happen, however. ...

Sigh. Yes, you did give a timeline for when it would be very difficult to find a gas station. Post #1557:

Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Crap! I better run down to one of the 5,000 gas stations in Houston and gas up our three vehicles before they get closed! Scary stuff!

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess). Consider this a heads-up depending on your life expectancy chart.

Don't be like those who were still investing in the horse drawn carriage industry in 1905.

The times, they are a changing.

Now you are trying to tell us that your 5-10 years was not related to aja8888 saying he better gas up before all (or even most?) the stations in Houston get closed?

My timeframe in my recent comments cover the 5-10 year period when I think EV will outsell ICE vehicles. ... .

You keep moving the goal posts and then deny what you said applied. It's hard to picture that if/when EV sales hit 50%, that it would be significantly more difficult to find a gas station than it is today. More than half the cars on the road would be ICEs. Sure, we may not have as many corners with 2-3 station on them, but by the time I reach 1/3rd of a tank, I probably pass 100 opportunities to fill up before I decide to actually do it. If that gets reduced to 50 opportunities, it wan't really affect me.

Maybe you should create a new post, with everything clearly spelled out. That is, if you are actually interested in serious discussion.

... Tell me ERD, will the corner gas station ever disappear? If so, when? Silly to play these games.

"ever" and "never" are silly (so why did you bring it up?) - so no, I won't play that game. I guess you are not up to the challenge of breaking out the annual sales numbers to get to 90% EVs on the road? How about 50%?

-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

But this still may be very workable for some/many people.

Say your Level 1 charging takes care of your 40-50 mile daily RT commute, and you have 200 mile range. As long as you keep it near topped-off each night, you could do your 50 mile commute, and still have nearly 150 miles for unexpected trips.

Then you plug in overnight and get your commute charge in. It would be pushing it to use nearly all the 150 miles, as maybe you get home late and don't have a full 10-12 hours charge time. But you could easily handle something close to that.

Yes, that's not going to work for others, and those are the cases that will keep EVs from penetrating some market segments for a long time.

I guess I need to point out to some of the 'fans' here - the above comment from me was defending EVs, right? I'm not all negative as you may think, it's all about facts/figures.

-ERD50

And just to add... if they know they took those extra miles out of their car they can always go to a commercial charger and top up quickly (well, quickly for an EV)...

 

[oneill225]

Sigh. Yes, you did give a timeline for when it would be very difficult to find a gas station. Post #1557:
Now you are trying to tell us that your 5-10 years was not related to aja8888 saying he better gas up before all (or even most?) the stations in Houston get closed?-ERD50

You win the gotcha Olympics ERD. Thanks for advancing the discussion!

 

[ERD50]

You win the gotcha Olympics ERD. Thanks for advancing the discussion!

More trolling?

There's no "gotcha Olympics" going on. I asked serious questions. Clearly, you are not able/willing to make your case. So you resort to deflecting from the issue.

Sad.

-ERD50

 

[Lakewood90712]

New Directors to the Tesla Board

The announcement of the 2 new directors is great news . Some actual Adults will be in the room.

 

[oneill225]

No, when the number of ICE cars start to dramatically drop then gas stations will be going away....
My issue with your stmt is that there is no evidence that EV sales will exceed ICE sales until about 2040 (look at my previous post)... and the number of ICE cars will still be high... will have to look, but I think that the raw number of ICE cars will be higher in 2040 than today, even with EV sales... so, the decline of gas stations will not even start prior to 2040 from what evidence I see...
I also asked in another post that you show evidence of your belief... you believing it is great, but there are a lot of people who believe in aliens without much facts...
Edit... decided to find and attach... it looks like 1 billion cars... and by 2040 1.6 billion... with 1 billion still being ICE... so gas stations are not going to start to go away in 5 to 10 years...

These are all best guesses as the EV market is just now spooling up to be competitive at all price points and vehicle types. My best guess is based on the accelerating pace that Tesla is selling vehicles and the slew of other EV's about to compete. Anyone who claims to have solid knowledge as to the future timeline is not being realistic.

That being said, I think this transition is comparable to the adoption of other revolutionary tech like large flat panel televisions. At first only the rich could afford them, but once the prices dropped to around a $1,000 or less, the tube tv business was quickly doomed (although my Dad still has one sitting idle in his basement). Same with computers destroying the typewriter industry. Price is really the only thing holding back mass market EVs. Charging issues will sort themselves out, as needed. Once the prices hit that tipping point, it will happen relatively fast.

I would love to see a chart showing the predictions made three or four years ago compared to actual sales since that time. My hunch is that they will have vastly underestimated the number of EVs actually sold in the US and around the world.

This article from 2017 hits on how varied and flawed EV market predictions have been. An excerpt: "Previous "Outlooks" had expected electrics to remain a tiny share of U.S. vehicle sales for decades to come. The new "Outlook" foresees a brighter future for electric vehicles, with annual sales topping 1.2 million cars by 2025 plus an additional 186,000 light trucks. That's nearly double its forecast from last year, and nearly 10 times its forecast from 2014."

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-b...casts-for-electric-car-sales-are-all-over-map

 

[aja8888]

Where will all the batteries come from?

No one here seems to want to discuss EV batteries and in particular, where will they all come from and who will be the suppliers? I have heard that the Chinese are in control of most of the lithium deposits and mining operations worldwide? Can someone verify that? If so, is that a good thing?

I also understand that the Gigafactory is making batteries for "things" other than cars and mostly a Panasonic operation.

We and others (worldwide) have plenty of scrap metal to make steel and natural gas to make plastics, so it seems to me the only main raw material needed to make huge quantities of EV's would be a generous, and inexpensive, supply of batteries.

Thoughts?

 

[Texas Proud]

These are all best guesses as the EV market is just now spooling up to be competitive at all price points and vehicle types. My best guess is based on the accelerating pace that Tesla is selling vehicles and the slew of other EV's about to compete. Anyone who claims to have solid knowledge as to the future timeline is not being realistic.

That being said, I think this transition is comparable to the adoption of other revolutionary tech like large flat panel televisions. At first only the rich could afford them, but once the prices dropped to around a $1,000 or less, the tube tv business was quickly doomed (although my Dad still has one sitting idle in his basement). Same with computers destroying the typewriter industry. Price is really the only thing holding back mass market EVs. Charging issues will sort themselves out, as needed. Once the prices hit that tipping point, it will happen relatively fast.

I would love to see a chart showing the predictions made three or four years ago compared to actual sales since that time. My hunch is that they will have vastly underestimated the number of EVs actually sold in the US and around the world.

This article from 2017 hits on how varied and flawed EV market predictions have been. An excerpt: "Previous "Outlooks" had expected electrics to remain a tiny share of U.S. vehicle sales for decades to come. The new "Outlook" foresees a brighter future for electric vehicles, with annual sales topping 1.2 million cars by 2025 plus an additional 186,000 light trucks. That's nearly double its forecast from last year, and nearly 10 times its forecast from 2014."

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-b...casts-for-electric-car-sales-are-all-over-map

OK, so predictions are flawed.... but they are being made by people who are in the industry and have much more knowledge than you are me.... and I still do not see any prediction that in 5 or 10 years that EV sales will dominate... none... and you have not provided any either... from someone with knowledge that is as you have predicted it yourself...

 

[JoeWras]

I'm guessing every engineer here, government, military or commercial, has experienced predictions and directives from their leaders that were a bit, uh, aggressive.

Many of us still have the scar tissue from trying to make those plans come through.

Just a guess as to where some of the questions are coming from.

 

[aja8888]

I'm guessing every engineer here, government, military or commercial, has experienced predictions and directives from their leaders that were a bit, uh, aggressive.

Many of us still have the scar tissue from trying to make those plans come through.

Just a guess as to where some of the questions are coming from.

Where are the flying cars?

 

[ERD50]

....
That being said, I think this transition is comparable to the adoption of other revolutionary tech like large flat panel televisions. ... Same with computers destroying the typewriter industry. ....

No, it's nothing like that. And anyone making that comparison is showing their ignorance, plain and simple. Look back at some of the Moore's Law comments, even Moore himself has addressed this.

That doesn't mean the EV fleet won't increase, I expect it will. As prices come down for models with good range, the EV may fit a lot of peoples needs quite well. But we've talked about some of the limits, and you just hand-wave those away ("charging issues will just sort themselves out"?) - with no numbers or meaningful analysis, just 'hopium' talk. It's getting to the big numbers that gets tough, and that's were you get away from anything meaningful, and into the "hopium".

-ERD50

 

[eroscott]

Yes, it does. And for many of us, when we toss in a side trip to the grocery store, or to pick up the kids from daycare, or to visit mom and replace the burnt out bulb in the bedroom ceiling, we will easily exceed that 40-50 miles. Maybe these things happen only once a week, but that is often enough to be a huge concern.

The comment was about getting a 'few miles' overnight with 120v and about commuting. I showed what a farce that was by people with no 1st hand experience. And I included a graphic and article to the research for it (not GMs research but others).

A grid plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are good for some people. There are quite a few choices of these and growing. Heck even if you drove 60 miles roundtrip to work you would still be far ahead only running gas for 20 of those. People miss that scenario and can't think out of a box. If we exceed the battery electric miles then the gas engine simply runs but most of the time you are using 'fuel' from the electrical grid which is 4 to 6 times cheaper than gas.

Plug regen braking means you rarely need to do any brake work ... in fact our 2011 isn't anywhere near needing brake work and most of the miles are on the battery and the gas engine doesn't need to run for most of them (it runs occasionally to do self-testing and remove condensation, etc). I change the oil every couple of years per manufacturers even if it hasn't hit the oil life percentage. Spark plugs, wires, muffler, forget-ta-bout-it.

For pure battery electric (BEV) most of those modern ones are over 200 miles (first gen LEAF excluded). This will get you to moms house to change the bulbs every single week

 

[mpeirce]

you are using 'fuel' from the electrical grid which is 4 to 6 times cheaper than gas.

Where does that 4 to 6 times come from?

It's a tad tricky to directly compare energy costs. The feds apparently have a website that compares regular gas to an "eGallon"

WHAT IS THE EGALLON?

The eGallon represents the cost of fueling a vehicle with electricity compared to a similar vehicle that runs on gasoline. For example, if gasoline costs $3.60 a gallon in your state and the eGallon price for your state is $1.20, that means that for $1.20 worth of electricity you can drive the same distance as you would for $3.60 worth of gasoline.

Using their calculator it's showing roughly a 2:1 ratio today.

Examples:

Here in Ohio they show gas at $2.16, (though I saw it at $1.59 at Marathon today) and an eGallon at $1.04 ("average cost of electricity for the state"). Still cheaper, but certainly not 4 to 6 times cheaper.

Another example, California, they have gas at $3.32 and eGallon at $1.76. So both gasoline and electricity appear to be a little more than 50% higher than here in the Midwest.

The definition of eGallon seems a tad flexible since they are trying to compare "similar vehicles". Does that compare a Volt to a Cruze and a Tesla S with a Mercedes E Class? Unclear to me. Which cars they compare and their specific mpg would seem to matter a lot.

From these rough numbers it appears to me that high mpg ICE cars are "fairly" competitive with EVs even today (my diesel MB E250 get's almost double the mpg as the gasoline powered MB E350 for example).

And gasoline is pretty cheap these days and with the US becoming a net exporter of oil (thanks's to the fracking revolution) it should stay reasonably priced for a while.

I just don't see that huge price advantage of using electric over oil you mention.

 

[bobandsherry]

Just wait for Fed and States to start taxing the cost to recharge the EV's and see how much of the savings evaporates. After all, if oil and gas sales drop how do you think they'll cover the taxes they get today to fund roads.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=10

 

[NW-Bound]

No one here seems to want to discuss EV batteries and in particular, where will they all come from and who will be the suppliers? I have heard that the Chinese are in control of most of the lithium deposits and mining operations worldwide? Can someone verify that? If so, is that a good thing?

I also understand that the Gigafactory is making batteries for "things" other than cars and mostly a Panasonic operation.

We and others (worldwide) have plenty of scrap metal to make steel and natural gas to make plastics, so it seems to me the only main raw material needed to make huge quantities of EV's would be a generous, and inexpensive, supply of batteries.

Thoughts?

Many companies are making lithium batteries, which are the current winner among competing technologies. But we should realize that there are several different lithium battery compositions. No battery expert here, but I have read that lithium is itself in abundance. Some compositions use cobalt and that is harder to get than lithium.

Lithium batteries are useful for energy storage, not just for EVs. I don't know how cheap lithium battery can get. What is the raw cost of material, and how much is the processing and manufacturing cost? I don't know.

Semiconductor chips like CPU and memory chips can get smaller and smaller and that gets them to be faster and cheaper. A smaller transistor will switch faster while using less power. And we can fit more smaller transistors on an IC to get more processing power.

Batteries on the other hand cannot be shrunken like that and have even more capacity. Or at least nobody has figured that out. He would solve the world's energy problem, become saviour of mankind and super rich at the same time.