NW-Bound
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2008
- Messages
- 35,712
The idea that you'll see the same geometric gains you see in chip technology in other technology is flawed. "Moore's law" does not apply.
Car technology is very different from silicon chip technology. The steadily shrinking die size and the resulting geometric growth in circuitry on a chip simply isn't going to apply to things like electric motors and batteries (or solar panels for that matter). It's a very different type of physics involved.
Of course EV's use computer technology for control and such, but so do internal combustion vehicles as well. Both benefit from better controls. So that's nice. But not the same thing as Moore's law applying to cars.
People often confuse these things. Again and again.
+1
Cars are much more complex. Even today's ICE cars have multiple equivalents of smart phones in them. Then there is all the mechanical and comfort items.
They can also kill people, which leads to regulation and further testing.
This doesn't mean that EV takeover or SDC won't happen. It is just that the timeframes have to be realistic.
Yes. I don't think anybody disputes the fact that there will be more and more EVs on the road. But it takes time.
But we also need improvement to charging times, and charging infrastructure.
People think that all it takes is a cord. How tough can that be?
This is the problem with so many EV and clean energy fans. They don't understand the limits and possibilities of the technology, but they make these unfounded claims and I think they believe them. And then get all emotional about it and claim that those in the know are being negative, when we are just being realistic. And then encourage their politicians to support 'dreams' rather than facts...
Technology advances are amazing, but it still takes time. People mentioned smart phones, so allow me to share a personal experience.
In 1996, a small group of friends and I founded a small company to help phone companies prepare to deploy the first generation of digital phones in the US. The first-generation GSM network was deployed first in Europe, and the US was behind. The FCC was auctioning spectrum for cellular companies to bid on to acquire the right to commercialize in different areas of the US. The auction brought in billions of dollars.
There was a lot of work to do for the auction winning companies to prepare for the deployment. Part of the spectrum was used already for microwave towers, and their equipment had to be replaced to move their operation to a different band. Land lease had to be negotiated to deploy cell towers, etc... We did consulting to help them with the technical aspect of only a small portion of all the work that had to be done.
That's more 20 years ago. A lot of work was going on behind the scene, while all the public sees is the phone they hold in their hand. It took 2 decades to get to this point. And the infrastructure for the phones involves a lot less capital equipment than the physical structure to support EVs.
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