Thoughts on TESLA

[Chuckanut]

There's a long way to go and all Tesla did was open the marketing door so far. If anyone thinks Tesla's EV technology is "secret", think again.

IIRC, Tesla has said its patents are open to all and they won't sue if others use them.

 

[aja8888]

It is early, no doubt, but I think you would fire a baseball manager if he told his team to start trying in the 3rd or 4th inning.

Why? Let the competition pay for the research and not you. Very common in industry as a business practice. But I guess you are not very knowledgeable on business tactics?

In any event, F, GM, and FCA plus others have been making profits selling all their other lines over the last few years so jumping in to EV's as one of their products after the tech has been developed is pretty smart. Plus, a market has been already established by Tesla.

Which model Tesla are you driving at the moment?

 

[oneill225]

Why? Let the competition pay for the research and not you. Very common in industry as a business practice. But I guess you are not very knowledgeable on business tactics?
In any event, F, GM, and FCA plus others have been making profits selling all their other lines over the last few years so jumping in to EV's as one of their products after the tech has been developed is pretty smart. Plus, a market has been already established by Tesla.
Which model Tesla are you driving at the moment?

I think you give Ford management too much credit (and Tesla's too little).

I may never buy a Tesla. I will buy the best EV that meets my criteria (in my opinion) in a couple of years when I am ready to buy a new car. Regardless of what I buy two years from now, Tesla is currently building a lead in a market that is in high demand.

Any implication that Ford and the other legacy manufacturers can compete head-on with Tesla anytime they please (but they are just "waiting" as business tactic) is more than a stretch. Ford isn't taking on Tesla (or other EV leaders) because they can't. Should they manage to pull-off a comeback a few years from now, I would consider it more luck than strategy.

I can tell you that I am investing in Tesla now; Ford...no way. I will remain flexible, however.

 

[ERD50]

It is early, no doubt, but I think you would fire a baseball manager if he told his team to start trying in the 3rd or 4th inning.

Wow, you really need to study history. The early companies often fall by the wayside. Are you currently using CompuServe, Prodigy, GeoCities, AltaVista, or Ask Jeeves? They were all there in the early innings. Where are they now?

Where was Apple in the cell phone industry for the first few decades?

Same with the automobile. There were many dozens of companies in the early 1900's, almost all gone within a few decades.

As a car company, Tesla is entering in the 9th inning.

As an EV, Tesla is entering long after the early innings:

https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-electric-car

Here in the U.S., the first successful electric car made its debut around 1890 thanks to William Morrison, a chemist who lived in Des Moines, Iowa. His six-passenger vehicle capable of a top speed of 14 miles per hour was little more than an electrified wagon, but it helped spark interest in electric vehicles.

Over the next few years, electric vehicles from different automakers began popping up across the U.S. New York City even had a fleet of more than 60 electric taxis. By 1900, electric cars were at their heyday, accounting for around a third of all vehicles on the road. During the next 10 years, they continued to show strong sales.

I really don't think your observations are relevant one way or the other to Tesla's future success/failure.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Wow, you really need to study history. The early companies often fall by the wayside. Are you currently using CompuServe, Prodigy, GeoCities, AltaVista, or Ask Jeeves? They were all there in the early innings. Where are they now?
I really don't think your observations are relevant one way or the other to Tesla's future success/failure.-ERD50

I won't respond to the personal shots except to say that "history" is full of successes and failures for any number of reasons. The fact that many successful companies were not an early leader in the industry, does not negate the fact that many early leaders were (i.e. Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon, etc...).

Aside from the F150 and a couple of older SUVs, ford is flailing along with their stock. Do you really think that Ford intended to not have a single sedan outsell Tesla by the end of last year? Was that their "strategy"?

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/03/tesla-model-3-11-best-selling-car-in-usa-in-2018/

 

[Hamlet]

It is early, no doubt, but I think you would fire a baseball manager if he told his team to start trying in the 3rd or 4th inning.

The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

It's hard to say if this is an industry of birds or mice yet.

 

[oneill225]

The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
It's hard to say if this is an industry of birds or mice yet.

Fair enough. Time will tell, but I would say a little both could apply to Tesla. They did not invent the electric car, but they are the first to successfully mass produce one. So, Tesla is both mouse and bird; a "mird".

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

IIRC, Tesla has said its patents are open to all and they won't sue if others use them.

You are correct.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50
Wow, you really need to study history. The early companies often fall by the wayside. Are you currently using CompuServe, Prodigy, GeoCities, AltaVista, or Ask Jeeves? They were all there in the early innings. Where are they now?
I really don't think your observations are relevant one way or the other to Tesla's future success/failure.-ERD50

I won't respond to the personal shots except to say that "history" is full of successes and failures for any number of reasons. The fact that many successful companies were not an early leader in the industry, does not negate the fact that many early leaders were (i.e. Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon, etc...).

Aside from the F150 and a couple of older SUVs, ford is flailing along with their stock. Do you really think that Ford intended to not have a single sedan outsell Tesla by the end of last year? Was that their "strategy"?

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/03/tesla-model-3-11-best-selling-car-in-usa-in-2018/

Wow again. It was not a 'personal shot' to suggest you study history. I might suggest you are being overly-sensitive to think it was, but I suppose you'd call that a 'personal attack'?


Yes, history is full of examples and counter examples. That's why I said "I really don't think your observations are relevant one way or the other to Tesla's future success/failure". Right, that's what I said, right? I did not say "Tesla will fail", right?


It is 'interesting' that your responses take things I didn't say, and then attacks them. Is that because you can't challenge what I actually did say? It looks that way.

I did not say that the wait was Ford's strategy did I? I did not say Ford would succeed or fail, did I? I'll copy my post #1996 below for reference, with some emphasis in case you missed some of these the first time around.

[ from ERD50 #1996]There are some pros/cons to being "late". Ford still has all their EV credits, right? Assuming the rules stay as they are, that could work in their favor.

By waiting for battery prices to come down, and observing what's going on in the market, they are in a better position to produce a lower-mid price car where the $7,500 is a very big deal. And assuming that Ford has the experience to ramp up a new model faster than start-up Tesla, that means that once they hit the 200,000 unit point, they could be selling high volumes during the 6 months that buyers still get the $3,750 credit (again, still a big deal on a low-mid priced EV), and another 6 months of a still substantial $1,875.

Of course, that may not be Ford's plan. And maybe Ford doesn't end up producing an EV that people want all that much. Or they just squander the opportunity in some other way.

But being late isn't all negative for Ford.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Wow again. It was not a 'personal shot' to suggest you study history. I might suggest you are being overly-sensitive to think it was, but I suppose you'd call that a 'personal attack'?

Always entertaining. I apologize for not realizing you were just worried about my knowledge of history.

Yes, history is full of examples and counter examples. That's why I said "I really don't think your observations are relevant one way or the other to Tesla's future success/failure". Right, that's what I said, right? I did not say "Tesla will fail", right?

Being the far-away leader in a large, emerging industry/market is relevant when it comes to deciding whether they are a worthy investment. This is why buying Microsoft stock in their early years would have made you much more money than buying IBM. Remember, this is an investment thread with a focus on Tesla stock.

I did not say that the wait was Ford's strategy did I? I did not say Ford would succeed or fail, did I? I'll copy my post #1996 below for reference, with some emphasis in case you missed some of these the first time around.

You like context ERD. My comments were surrounding Ford getting into the EV market in a serious way. You commented that being late to the game can be a winning strategy (to twist your words). I am responding that I doubt Ford is intentionally coming into the EV game late. More likely poor management and another reason to invest in Tesla over the EV laggards.

 

[Ronstar]

Went to the Barrett Jackson auto auction today. Tesla had a nice vendor area. Sat in a model s. Back seat legroom is limited. Drivers seat was comfortable. Seemed like I was sitting very low. About as low as a corvette. The info screen is impressive. I’ll need to take a Tesla operations class if I ever get one.

Saw only 1 Tesla on the auction - a 2010 roadster.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am very interested to see how Ford is going to price their PU truck. They shoot for a range of 300 miles, but 300 miles on a PU is going to take a battery perhaps 2x the size of the one in the Tesla.

The battery in Tesla Model S already weighs 1000 lbs. So, the PU truck battery is going to weigh 2000 lbs already.

Perhaps they expect that by that time the battery production cost will come down enough that they can sell the truck for $75-100K?

 

[Ronstar]

^Not much of an increase. Some of their trucks are already $75k or more.

 

[NW-Bound]

The current trucks do not cost that much more to produce, compared to a large sedan. Going to EV will hurt their profit margin like crazy.

 

[bobandsherry]

Will just say this is interesting and maybe provides perspective on some of the fan base.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/17/tesla-roadster-free-killed-referral-program/

 

[bobandsherry]

And speaking of more competition in the EV landsacpe...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/nis...tesla-in-massive-shift-to-electric-autos.html

 

[NW-Bound]

And speaking of more competition in the EV landsacpe...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/nis...tesla-in-massive-shift-to-electric-autos.html

In the above linked article:

... In the case of Infiniti, that will mean both battery-electric vehicles and what are known as serial plug-in hybrids. These have range-extending gas engines on board, but if they fire up they only serve as generators, sending power to the electric motors that actually drive the wheels.

I highlighted the above keywords. This concept is not new, has been talked about for decades, but has not been carried out in a production vehicle.

For cruising, the typical EV needs about 20 kW continuously from its battery. A range extender ICE driving a generator only needs to supply that. And 20 kW is about 30 HP, which can be provided by a small 0.5-liter engine (30 cubic in). That is the same as the engine of a mid-size motorcycle.

With the range extender ICE, the battery can be made smaller, and also lighter to make up for the small gasoline engine.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Went to the Barrett Jackson auto auction today. Tesla had a nice vendor area. Sat in a model s. Back seat legroom is limited. Drivers seat was comfortable. Seemed like I was sitting very low. About as low as a corvette. The info screen is impressive. I’ll need to take a Tesla operations class if I ever get one.

Saw only 1 Tesla on the auction - a 2010 roadster.

The Model S is VERY low. Part of the reason I bought the other 2 models.

Tesla's are simple to drive. It takes a short time to familiarize yourself with things. The drive home is enough to adapt.

 

[Totoro]

With the range extender ICE, the battery can be made smaller, and also lighter to make up for the small gasoline engine.

Also a much simpler and cheaper ICE, as you can run it at basically the same (most efficient) RPM all the time.

 

[bobandsherry]

First SpaceX, and now Tesla with significant cuts to employee staff. Based on premarket, market didn't like the news this morning.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/elon-musk-tesla-email-to-employees-about-job-cuts.html

 

[bobandsherry]

In the above linked article:



I highlighted the above keywords. This concept is not new, has been talked about for decades, but has not been carried out in a production vehicle.

For cruising, the typical EV needs about 20 kW continuously from its battery. A range extender ICE driving a generator only needs to supply that. And 20 kW is about 30 HP, which can be provided by a small 0.5-liter engine (30 cubic in). That is the same as the engine of a mid-size motorcycle.

With the range extender ICE, the battery can be made smaller, and also lighter to make up for the small gasoline engine.

You must have missed this... Which is more the point I was making about competition.

"Le Vot also announced in Detroit that Nissan will have eight all-electric models in its global fleet by 2022."

 

[NW-Bound]

I saw that.

But pure EVs are not interesting as the serial hybrid with its built-in charger, aka range extender. There are several pure EVs already on the market, but nobody has built the latter for production, and I am more interested to see how they carry this out.

A serial hybrid can be taken to the Yukon, Alaska, or across Siberia. A pure EV would need a long electrical cord.

 

[bobandsherry]

I saw that.

But pure EVs are not interesting as the serial hybrid with its built-in charger, aka range extender. There are several pure EVs already on the market, but nobody has built the latter for production, and I am more interested to see how they carry this out.

A serial hybrid can be taken to the Yukon, Alaska, or across Siberia. A pure EV would need a long electrical cord.

Yeah, however you look at it, it's going to get real real soon with product offerings that either are directly competing with Tesla EV vehicles or with a broader offering of alternative choices to full EV vehicles.

Perhaps another case of pioneers get arrows and settlers get the land....

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes. It will be like the PC business, where many manufacturers use the same Intel processors. The enabler here is the lithium battery.

Will Tesla be able to compete for the masses by lowering the price, or becomes like Apple which commands a premium price due to perceived higher quality? We will see.

 

[NW-Bound]

Musk just announced job cut of 7% of his work force.

For the last quarter, Tesla produced 86,555 cars with 45,000 employees. That's an annualized rate of 7.7 cars/employee.

Ford has 202,000 employees worldwide, producing 6,600,000 vehicles in 2017. That's 32.7 cars/employee.

Just a very ball park measure, FWIW.