Just wondering what this group thinks about timing the market and when to commit new funds in order to satisfy AA ratio.
Hmm... Let me put it this way... I don't view 'market timing' as being a dirty word as some folks do. In fact, I think it's a
great idea,
IF (<-- big
if) one can figure out how to do it. That said, the reputed 'expert' we paid $185/year -- for many years -- to tell us exactly when to do it
missed the debacle of '08-'09
ENTIRELY. Did he refund his subscribers for even one year for screwing up so badly? Not even one cent. Just, "Sorry, folks, we screwed up. Better luck next time. Don't forget to renew your subscription!"
THAT said, IMO there's market timing, and there's market timing. IOW, there are different degrees/types of timing different aspects. Many 'experts' are now saying that a correction (10%±) is imminent (there's that word again). Corrections do happen after significant run-ups, so it's not
unlikely that one will happen. But again, the question is when, and by how much?
There are also all kinds of cycles -- both real and alleged -- by which the market can be "timed".
market cycles - Google Search
While I may like the
idea (there are LOTs of ideas I like that are not practical), I'm also on the fence about timing, because I
know that I
don't know enough to do it (which is why I paid some guy to do it for me and we know how
THAT [-]worked[/-]
didn't work out).
Personally, I think it's likely that we'll see a correction between now and when interest rates begin to rise. But that's just, ya know, like, my
opinion, man, and I could be wrong.
Beyond that, anyone's guess is probably as good (or bad) as mine.
That's what I (currently) think about timing the market.
Tyro