Volvo to be all electric

[Midpack]

Saw this article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-discovers-electric-vehicle-hype-1499462079

Turns out V's announcement is a publicity stunt more than anything:

+1. That was my second impression. If you read the statement, there's a lot of latitude and ambiguity. Though they may not introduce any solely ICE new models after 2019, they could "refresh" all their existing models indefinitely, including complete redesigns. I think they already have more models today than ever before, they aren't missing many segments, so there's no need for a new model. Not that I expect it, but they could launch a modest hybrid in 2019 and their first all electric or plug in could be many years later. The possibilities are many...

 

[Chuckanut]

My take on the Volvo announcement is that it is like the ad I see from time to time about this amazing device that lets you watch TV for free! - Otherwise known as an antenna.

 

[Alan]

As long as the subsidy, (tax credit), from the Govt stays in place for these electric cars they will be popular. Take away the subsidy and we shall see if electric can stand on it's own against the newer efficient gassers. I would like to see more research put into small efficient diesels like they have overseas.

Turns out that diesel engines are much more polluting than petrol engines (NOx).

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/apr/13/death-of-diesel-wonder-fuel-new-asbestos

The cracks took a long time to appear, but when they did they splintered rapidly. In 2012 came the first major evidence of some truly dreadful health impacts. Nitrogen oxides and dioxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) pumped out by diesel exhausts were fingered as silent killers. The studies multiplied. The European Environment Agency found that nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from diesel fumes had caused around 71,000 premature deaths across the continent in a single year. It said the UK experienced 11,940 annual premature deaths from NO2, the second highest in Europe behind Italy. The World Health Organisation declared diesel exhaust a carcinogenic, a cause of lung cancer

While national governments wring their hands, it is cities that are taking the lead. In Germany, Berlin has already banned the oldest, highest-polluting diesel cars from its centre, while Munich is developing a clean air ban that will bring in some form of diesel ban in 2018. The Spanish capital, Madrid, has now introduced a system to halve the number of cars on the roads during smog outbreaks, based on odd or even number plates on alternate days; various other cities have experimented with similar trials.

 

[Totoro]

Diesel is dead for passenger cars. Economics are killing it.

Long story short: diesel costs will go up, and diesel fuel prices won't go down vs. gasoline.

 

[gerntz]

Article from WSJ on electric vehicles viability:

"Many optimists think falling battery costs mean electric vehicles (EVs) will inevitably displace the internal combustion engine (ICE). Last week, Bloomberg predicted electric cars would become “price competitive” with ICE cars in eight years without subsidies.

But such scenarios hinge not just on the cost of batteries but on the price of oil and the efficiency of competing vehicles. Economists Thomas Covert, Michael Greenstone and Christopher Knittel, in an article for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, estimate that at the current battery cost of $270 per kwh, oil would have to cost more than $300 a barrel​ (in 2020 dollars) to make electric and gasoline equally attractive. If battery costs fall to $100, as Tesla Founder Elon Musk has targeted, oil would have to average $90.

That could happen. But optimists “overlook the compensating effect of incumbent technology,” says Kevin Book, of ClearView Energy Partners, an advisory firm. He notes, for example, the spectacular decline in natural gas prices that hydraulic fracking has made possible. Global oil reserves have repeatedly defied predictions of shrinkage as industry innovation expands what can be recovered. And internal combustion engine efficiency typically rises 2% a year.

ClearView says that in an optimistic scenario, where battery costs fall 10% a year starting now and gasoline begins at $5 a gallon, electric vehicles will be competitive in five years. If battery costs fall just 5% a year and gasoline starts at $2.25, it will take more than 20."

"Electric vehicles are meant to be recharged at night. Economists Joshua Graff Zivin, Matthew Kotchen and Erin Mansur note in a 2014 article in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization that night is when electricity is most likely to come from burning coal. They estimate electric vehicles account for more carbon dioxide per mile than existing cars in the upper Midwest, where coal-fired plants are more prevalent, and more than comparable hybrids in most of the country."

" it has relied on extensive public subsidies and, second, it has done little to reduce planet-warming emissions of carbon dioxide. If electric cars are ever to displace gasoline engines without government putting its thumb on the scale, they must not only keep innovating but outrun fossil fuels where productivity also keeps advancing."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-cars-are-the-future-not-so-fast-1499873064