What is the point of COVID testing?

[anethum]

You are right. I should have said #confirmed cases when comparing the two vs deaths and hospitalizations. When comparing #cases to total population, Sweden is ~ .18% infected, while Norway is .14% and both have relatively low number of deaths based on their populations.

Given that the number of tests conducted per capita varies widely throughout the world, and the significant number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals who may not get tested, it's not always useful to compare the percent infected individuals between countries, or between U.S. states.

Nevertheless, I decided to try and find out how many people are getting tested in Norway & Sweden. I found the following figures:

For Norway as of April 27, 164,316 people have been tested in Norway.

For Sweden as of April 19, only 94,494 people had been tested. I extrapolated approx. 21,000 additional tests were likely conducted during the past week in Sweden, which would bring the total to about 115,500 tests.

It should also be noted that Sweden has nearly twice the population of Norway. Thus even though the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus is 31% higher in Sweden than in Norway, it's likely that a lot more cases of infection in Sweden are not being caught compared to Norway.

It's also worth noting that at present, Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world for COVID-19, and its rate is substantially higher than all of its Scandinavian neighbors.

 

[Independent]

Not tested, the Abbott anti-body test has a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 99.5%.

One negative on the Abbott test is that it is for the IgG antibody, which is produced late in the infection. So, the above measurements are assuming 2 weeks from first infection. The good news is they think it may remain in the bloodstream for months (perhaps years).

https://www.abbott.com/corpnewsroom/product-and-innovation/an-update-on-abbotts-work-on-COVID-19-testing.html

Yep, that's another possibility.

It is a blood draw from the arm, mail to lab test.

I think the San Francisco researchers were looking at finger prick, rapid readout tests.

https://www.healthlabs.com/covid-19-antibody-test

If I thought I'd had it, but wanted to be sure, I'd be willing to go to a lab, get the blood draw, pay my $169, and wait 24 hours for a result. It would be worth that to me to know for sure.

I think the massive, test millions of people, vision is hoping for simpler processes.

 

[mpeirce]

It's also worth noting that at present, Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world for COVID-19, and its rate is substantially higher than all of its Scandinavian neighbors.

It's really too soon to draw conclusions. If Norway is trying to "flatten the curve" and Sweden isn't, then of course Sweden will have a higher per capital death rate early on. But that doesn't imply that when all is said and done, that it'll be higher.

It seems to me that the key question at this stage for Sweden is have they exceeded their hospital capacity. That's the stated goal for flattening the curve. And I haven't seen any stats on that for Sweden.

 

[eytonxav]

Who claims they are having similar results?

Given that the number of tests conducted per capita varies widely throughout the world, and the significant number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals who may not get tested, it's not always useful to compare the percent infected individuals between countries, or between U.S. states.

Nevertheless, I decided to try and find out how many people are getting tested in Norway & Sweden. I found the following figures:

For Norway as of April 27, 164,316 people have been tested in Norway.

For Sweden as of April 19, only 94,494 people had been tested. I extrapolated approx. 21,000 additional tests were likely conducted during the past week in Sweden, which would bring the total to about 115,500 tests.

It should also be noted that Sweden has nearly twice the population of Norway. Thus even though the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus is 31% higher in Sweden than in Norway, it's likely that a lot more cases of infection in Sweden are not being caught compared to Norway.

It's also worth noting that at present, Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world for COVID-19, and its rate is substantially higher than all of its Scandinavian neighbors.

This is rather a long video, but these two California ER physicians make a lot of sense:

 

[eytonxav]

This is rather a long video, but these two California ER physicians make a lot of sense:

The two docs in this video appeared on Laura Ingrams show last night, and by the end of the show, YouTube took down the video. Apparently, they now have a policy if anything differs from WHO's Covid point of view it becomes a violation. We as a country seem to keep being told what to think by the media outlets.

 

[intent]

From this article: https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

...

Misinformation thrives in a pandemic, and public health officials in California and elsewhere just can’t keep up.

In this particular case, it seems the media is trying to reduce dissemination of what the scientific community considers dangerous misinformation.

 

[MichaelB]

Apparently, they now have a policy if anything differs from WHO's Covid point of view it becomes a violation.

This is quite a statement. Any way to validate?

 

[MichaelB]

YouTube took down the video. Apparently, they now have a policy if anything differs from WHO's Covid point of view it becomes a violation.

This is quite a statement. Any way to validate?

I found this recent report by BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52388586

YouTube has banned any coronavirus-related content that directly contradicts World Health Organization (WHO) advice.
The Google-owned service says it will remove anything it deems "medically unsubstantiated".

Chief executive Susan Wojcicki said the media giant wanted to stamp out "misinformation on the platform".

So, if this report is correct, it’s not about disagreement, it’s about unsubstantiated or contradictory medical advice.

 

[aiken]

This is quite a statement. Any way to validate?

Why else would google take it down? Jeez. I find it appalling that board certified physicians are not allowed freedom of expression without censorship. Why should a bunch of software engineers, who know nothing about medicine, deign themselves to censor medical opinion? The epitome of arrogance.

 

[Nemo2]

So, if this report is correct, it’s not about disagreement, it’s about unsubstantiated or contradictory medical advice.

Gone With The Wind:

 

[Alan]

Given that the number of tests conducted per capita varies widely throughout the world, and the significant number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals who may not get tested, it's not always useful to compare the percent infected individuals between countries, or between U.S. states.

Nevertheless, I decided to try and find out how many people are getting tested in Norway & Sweden. I found the following figures:

For Norway as of April 27, 164,316 people have been tested in Norway.

For Sweden as of April 19, only 94,494 people had been tested. I extrapolated approx. 21,000 additional tests were likely conducted during the past week in Sweden, which would bring the total to about 115,500 tests.

It should also be noted that Sweden has nearly twice the population of Norway. Thus even though the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus is 31% higher in Sweden than in Norway, it's likely that a lot more cases of infection in Sweden are not being caught compared to Norway.

It's also worth noting that at present, Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world for COVID-19, and its rate is substantially higher than all of its Scandinavian neighbors.

Test rates per million pop are given here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Norway 30k / million
Sweden 12k / million

 

[anethum]

It's really too soon to draw conclusions. If Norway is trying to "flatten the curve" and Sweden isn't, then of course Sweden will have a higher per capital death rate early on. But that doesn't imply that when all is said and done, that it'll be higher.

It seems to me that the key question at this stage for Sweden is have they exceeded their hospital capacity. That's the stated goal for flattening the curve. And I haven't seen any stats on that for Sweden.

There are other important aspects to limiting spread of the virus. To the extent that a high percentage of the population eventually becomes infected, those who become infected later would benefit from any effective treatments that are found and presumably have better outcomes. Also, if more people remain uninfected, more people would be able to take advantage of a vaccine if or when one is developed. Additionally, reducing (not just flattening the curve) the number of new cases will make contact tracing much easier. That ties in with what this thread was originally about: "What is the point of COVID testing?"

 

[Brat]

In my area only those obviously really ill receive the COVID test. Once tests are broadly available I think we will discover that many have the virus or have had the virus and have antibodies. Frankly, the current test just sorts out the really sick into COVID or not in terms of treatment. Without testing all adults we will not know where we are epidemiologically. I am a senior (80 next year) and have assisted my son's family with their kids. I want to resume that but without knowing if I have antibodies I can't resume my normal activities.

 

[eytonxav]

I found this recent report by BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52388586

So, if this report is correct, it’s not about disagreement, it’s about unsubstantiated or contradictory medical advice.

I remember the WHO supported China's claim that the virus does not spread human to human and were also opposed to the travel ban imposed by POTUS. So are we to believe everything they say, and everything contrary should be banned

 

[audreyh1]

I remember the WHO supported China's claim that the virus does not spread human to human and were also opposed to the travel ban imposed by POTUS. So are we to believe everything they say, and everything contrary should be banned

The video take down has probably got far more to do with the fact that their video was strongly criticized as dangerous misinformation by a couple of Emergency Physician professional organizations.

See post https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...le-elderly-at-first-103550-3.html#post2420300 which includes:

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

 

[eytonxav]

The video take down has probably got far more to do with the fact that their video was strongly criticized as dangerous misinformation by a couple of Emergency Physician professional organizations.

Who is fact checking the fact checkers? Remember VA hydroxychloriquine study, that claimed this drug is ineffective. That study had some serious problems and was misleading. The FDA has only said more study is needed in terms of a proper clinical trial and that the protocol for hydroxychloriquine should be administered in a hospital in the event of cardiac side effects.

 

[audreyh1]

Who's fact checking the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine? Oh well......

 

[REWahoo]

Who's fact checking the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine? Oh well......

Snopes.com

 

[intent]

Who is fact checking the fact checkers? Remember VA hydroxychloriquine study, that claimed this drug is ineffective. That study had some serious problems and was misleading. The FDA has only said more study is needed in terms of a proper clinical trial and that the protocol for hydroxychloriquine should be administered in a hospital in the event of cardiac side effects.

I might be missing your point, but it sounds like you answered your own question in this case ... it sounds like the FDA is fact checking the VA. Peer review and additional studies sounds like a proper way to fact check to me.

 

[wolf]

I keep hearing how more testing is needed before life can return to normal. But I don't understand what the point of more testing is?

If I'm tested and discover I'm infected (either with no symptoms, or obvious because I've already been sick) what does that mean? Am I free to roam the streets because I can't get it again. That has yet to be proven. Am I labeled "infected" and banned from places that have no infections, such as visiting someone in an assisted living home? Will we have a segregated society, one restaurant for infected individuals, and one for the uninfected? We don't serve your kind here?

If I'm tested and it comes back negative, who's to say I won't be infected tomorrow or next week?

Sorry, I'm not trying to be dense, I just don't see what more testing is supposed to achieve. Common sense would say that until there's a vaccine, or the majority of people have already had the virus, someone will always be at risk.

Somewhere I am missing the goal of increased testing...

Very interesting responses. I can understand, If one were in a "hot" spot.
Testing 100%, with contact tracing, would be great.

But, out here in the S.F. bay area. 100% testing. Agree with you. I don't get it.....

 

[eytonxav]

I might be missing your point, but it sounds like you answered your own question in this case ... it sounds like the FDA is fact checking the VA. Peer review and additional studies sounds like a proper way to fact check to me.

I think you got the point: a treatment is proposed with anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness, then another supposed credible sources states no effectivity, and then another credible source shows that the previous conclusion was done in a faulty manner. Recently, I have heard that Hydroxychloroquine has a very high effectivity rate if administered early using the right protocol, and the trials around the world have not shown any negative cardiac impacts to my knowledge. There are always going to be different points of view with arguments and counter arguments, so the only thing that is certain is peer reviewed/double blind clinical studies with sufficient number of test subjects. The problem is can we wait for 100% certainty if life and death is on the line.

 

[Rianne]

Question: What's the point of Covid testing? DH has a temp of 102.1 as of this AM. It was 101.5 yesterday. He is listless, no energy, headache and achy. I slept in a different bed last night. I'm thinking he gets tested today, as CDC nurse said he should go to ER yesterday, he refused. He will go to a drive through test, but will not go to ER.

If test is negative, I might feel a little better, but I don't have a lot of faith in the tests. Many false positives and negatives. I feel fine, now. There's controversy about when the virus is testable. In the first 2 days, when there are no symptoms or after symptoms is most accurate.