When would you retire?

[Kwirk]

I love my kids so I'd go with obese.

 

[DrRoy]

Mar of 22 on your chart looks good to me.

 

[TNBigfoot]

So how does one accumulate $$$ sufficient to jump from base to comfy to fire in 1 year each?

 

[Mountain skier]

This is an interesting thread. I'd be happier with excess, worry-free, things-go-wrong $ on the side in my budget...because sometimes go wrong.

 

[corn18]

So how does one accumulate $$$ sufficient to jump from base to comfy to fire in 1 year each?

A very large salary compared to expenses allows for a very high absolute savings each year. I'll post the chart with the numbers. We save $200,000-$350,000 / year depending on how much stock vests.

 

[Andre1969]

I voted for 55. I'd rather retire fairly comfortably, with some wiggle room in there, rather than going out on fairly bare-bones retirement. To me, that's worth the extra year of working. And, depending on how well the job situation is, I might even be tempted to push out until 56, if it meant an extra 10% in the annual budget.


Now I'm saying this as a 49 year old, who turns 50 in April. I might feel different in a few years. As the time goes by, each passing year becomes more and more valuable, because you only have so many left.

 

[Offgrid Organic Farmer]

I retired at the earliest that I could [knowing that I could support my family].

 

[Midpack]

What the underlying % success rate would be important to me, didn’t see that. A 95% success rate wouldn’t be the same answer as something higher.

I’d work as long as you can stand it regardless. You’ll be retired for a LONG time whether you go at 54 or 57. Retired for 30 years or 34 years isn’t a huge difference.

And I’d call obese FIRE 100% BTD, and adjust the others accordingly. But we each decide for ourselves.

 

[corn18]

What the underlying % success rate would be important to me, didn’t see that. A 95% success rate wouldn’t be the same answer as something higher.

I’d work as long as you can stand it regardless. You’ll be retired for a LONG time whether you go at 54 or 57. Retired for 30 years or 34 years isn’t a huge difference.

And I’d call obese FIRE 100% BTD, and adjust the others accordingly. But we each decide for ourselves.

Great question. In each scenario, the base budget is @ 99%. The BTD is VPW to age 80. If we are broke @ 80 it's because we chose to be and we will have to find a way to live off of $107k of COLA pension + SS / year.

 

[ncbill]

Obese FIRE if you like the work & are healthy.

 

[6miths]

Having children, if it were only a matter of a year between fat and obese then I would go for obese. I can put up with a lot of crap for an extra year or two, especially when I know that the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train. No way I would go for lean if I knew the timescale involved and there were no other complicating factors.

 

[Andre1969]

Considering how big those jumps are, if I was in a similar situation I could see myself falling into the "One More Year" syndrome! If I'm reading it right, the difference between retiring in 2020, versus 2023, is taking you from around $105K per year to $162K? That's pretty amazing!

My aspirations aren't quite so high. I'm mainly shooting for around $80K per year as my baseline, although I could cut back to a bare bones of around $60K, if I really had to.

FireCalc gives me a 93.9% chance of making it on $80K, if I retire this year. If I push it out 3 years, I have a 100% chance of making it on $80K. But if I want to get a bit extravagant, it gives me a 92.9% chance of making it on $95K per year.

I don't know that I'd want to sacrifice 3 years of my life, just for another $15K per year. But, for $57K I might be tempted! Of course, it would all depend on my health at the time, what else I want to do with my life, and my attitude about work.

 

[willing2try]

I'm planning to Fat FIRE in September.

 

[corn18]

What are your savings withdrawal rates for each of these?

Good question. I have a COLA pension and SS @ 70. This will cover my base expenses, so I need a bridge between retiring and SS. I also need savings to cover the BTD. So here is how I set it up:

1. 99% success for the base budget. This results in an average WR of 3% @ 54, 3.11% @ 55, 2.6% @ 56 and 1.7% @ 57. This starts out high but then goes to negative WR when SS kicks in.

2. My BTD is via VPW from retirement age to age 80. So that starts at around 6% and goes up according to the VPW spreadsheet.

All funds are in co-mingled in my 60/40 portfolio. I don't set it up as buckets. No real need.

 

[DogGone]

I’m just under your age and pulled the trigger last year.

Are you confident you have your expenses right including buying health insurance? Also a recent thread found many of us spend on average $15k per year on repairs and home improvements you may have dismissed as “not happening again”.

After leaving my fin advisor, I am down to 2.5% SWR until SS and a nonCOLA pension kick in.

Are you defining FAT fire as over $100k spend (location dependent if that’s fat) or like $50k over your current spend rate after meeting insurance?

 

[corn18]

I’m just under your age and pulled the trigger last year.

Are you confident you have your expenses right including buying health insurance? Also a recent thread found many of us spend on average $15k per year on repairs and home improvements you may have dismissed as “not happening again”.

After leaving my fin advisor, I am down to 2.5% SWR until SS and a nonCOLA pension kick in.

Are you defining FAT fire as over $100k spend (location dependent if that’s fat) or like $50k over your current spend rate after meeting insurance?

We are using the same budget we are on now as our base for fat FIRE. It is generous. I am a military retiree so we have free health care for life. We do have line items for dental and vision if we choose to carry that, but we may self insure. We have $9k / year in the budget for the house.

Fat FIRE is our current budget and includes everything except BTD. It sits at $117k / year. Anything over that is BTD. We are moving to OH to retire. At least that is where we will start.

 

[DogGone]

The earlier chart showed 136k was Fat Fire spending.

You’d be solid at this SWR<3 even by any conservative measure.

But if you like your work and it doesn’t bring stress home, put another year or two in.

For me, the deciding factor was this year was moving my parents to a retirement home and the last few years with my kids home so that expedited my choice.

Oh and the dog, he’s the real reason.

 

[Nature Lover]

I didn't vote, but I like having options; so I'd opt for a fatter fire if easily achieved. Some things that would be nice to be able to do if desired (beyond the BTD considerations):

Help kiddos avoid or reduce need for school loans
Help kiddos with first home purchases
Help parents/in-laws if needed later in life
Spoil grandkids if/when time comes
Help grandkids avoid or reduce need for school loans
Added flexibility for spouse, if one of you needs LT Care

Many of these may not ever be needed....but it would be good to have the assets/income to choose to ---or not ----if ever a time comes.

 

[corn18]

I do enjoy my job. And I am working for / with my friends so it's a secure environment.

Interesting day yesterday that may or may not impact my decision. I have had laryngitis for a few weeks. Went to the doc and tried antibiotics. Then tried steroids. No worky so saw the ENT yesterday. Appointment was @ 2:30 pm. He came in at 2:35 and by 2:40, he had determined my left vocal cord was paralyzed. Then he got very serious and said that this is usually caused by lung cancer or a tumor. Well, crap. 20 minutes later I'm at the hospital getting a CT+ of my head, neck and chest. Now I am sitting on the couch waiting for the verdict. Even if I don't have that bad stuff, I still can't talk well enough to work so I have to have surgery to fix my voice. I'm a rainbows and unicorns kindof guy, but this one is a bit tough. My wife was crying and told me to go $&*! my unicorns. So we had a bottle of wine. Life is a funny thing.

 

[Gremlin]

Fingers crossed you hear good news, corn!

 

[Vacation4us]

Wishing you well! I voted Fat Fire but that changes 100% with this oh sh*t moment.

My new vote is good health, and good news for you.

 

[DogGone]

Best wishes on a speedy recovery.

 

[corn18]

Update: no cancer. Surgery tomorrow on left vocal cord. Life is good.

 

[Mdlerth]

When life flashes before our eyes

Cancer-free? Fantabulous!

Don't rush into any decisions, but let your mind process the close call thoroughly and see if it guides your priorities.

Once again, great news!

 

[Gremlin]

Woohoo! Great news!