WHO - Confirmed cases doubled in 12 days

[audreyh1]

^^^ Why so gleeful?

Oh, I was just reacting to the statement about 3rd world countries in particular not being able to keep up with testing. And here I am living in a country that was way behind on testing from the get go........

It wasn’t gleeful.

 

[JoeWras]

At our rate of yesterdays increase of 5,594 confirmed cases, assuming only 20% need hospitalization, that is 1,119 beds !

That's a big assumption. We don't know the true aggregate number yet. Here in NC so far the hospitalization rate has been extremely low, likely because the cases have mostly been younger people (under 60).

We gotta keep this thing out of the elder communities!

 

[gwraigty]

Too bad officials won't tell it like it is:
Once the hospitals are packed full, in the rooms, ICU, in the hallways, in the stair landings.
When little Johnny goes out drinking and crashes his car, he will be left there to bleed out, as there is no sense sending an ambulance as the hospital is already over-filled.

Our state officials have been telling it like it is and still some refuse to listen. They've said that heart attacks, strokes, gunshot wounds, car accidents, women giving birth, etc. aren't going to stop because of the coronavirus. DD slipped on the last 2 stairs yesterday and fell. She quickly told us she was fine. Then I reminded everyone that they need to be extra careful. You don't want to have to go to the hospital/urgent care now. Falling down the stairs is no longer allowed. Also, take care when using tools and kitchen utensils.

 

[REWahoo]

Prof. Emily Landon, the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine really nailed it in a press conference on Friday:

“The healthy and optimistic among us will doom the vulnerable,” Landon said. She acknowledged that restrictions like a shelter-in-place may end up feeling “extreme” and “anticlimactic” — and that’s the point.

“It’s really hard to feel like you’re saving the world when you’re watching Netflix from your couch. But if we do this right, nothing happens,” Landon said. “A successful shelter-in-place means you’re going to feel like it was all for nothing, and you’d be right: Because nothing means that nothing happened to your family. And that’s what we’re going for here.”

 

[USGrant1962]

We have moved up to 5th spot, rapidly overtaking Germany by tomorrow and possibly Spain in confirmed cases.

At our rate of yesterdays increase of 5,594 confirmed cases, assuming only 20% need hospitalization, that is 1,119 beds !

That's kind of meaningless - you can add the populations of Germany, Italy, Spain and Iran together and it is only ~80% of the U.S. They are like states.

 

[NW-Bound]

Prof. Emily Landon, the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine really nailed it in a press conference on Friday:

There are plenty of young virus patients, 20 to 50, who need hospitalization, and even the ICU. Most survive when given medical care.

Now, if the hospitals are full and they are told "You are young, go home to tough it out", will the survival rate stay the same?

I hope the young people realize that they are not as invincible as they think. When the hospitals are full, they will be competing against one another for hospital beds.

This is a chart I posted earlier.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yesterday, on March 19, 2020, Italy had the highest number of daily new cases (5986), and also of daily deaths (627). They are still increasing despite the countrywide lockdown being ordered 10 days ago on March 9.

The number of daily deaths is shown below. An Italian mayor said there were also deaths at home, which were not counted because they did not and could not confirm by doing post-mortem tests. They were beyond determination of the cause of death, and were too busy with burying and cremating.

Not counting the at-home deaths, Italy had 627 virus deaths yesterday. That's a death rate of 229,000 deaths/year, for a country of 60 million people. It's astounding that some people compare the virus to vehicular accident deaths, which are about 50,000 in the US with 330 million people. Even a CEO can be quite severely math-challenged.

Look how low the daily death number was on March 9. And the Italian government recognized the problem and tried to clamp down back then. Imagine how much worse it would be if they did not.

At this point, Italy has 47,021 cases against China's 81,304. And the population is 60 million against 1.3 billion.

 

[Rianne]

Oh, I was just reacting to the statement about 3rd world countries in particular not being able to keep up with testing. And here I am living in a country that was way behind on testing from the get go........

+1-Still 1 confirmed case in Champaign County. The lady in her 50's had contact with an Italian, then had lots of contact with others before tested and confirmed.

 

[gerntz]

Yesterday, on March 19, 2020, Italy had the highest number of daily new cases (5986), and also of daily deaths (627). They are still increasing despite the countrywide lockdown being ordered 10 days ago on March 9.

The number of daily deaths is shown below. An Italian mayor said there were also deaths at home, which were not counted because they did not and could not confirm by doing post-mortem tests. They were beyond determination of the cause of death, and were too busy with burying and cremating.

Not counting the at-home deaths, Italy had 627 virus deaths yesterday. That's a death rate of 229,000 deaths/year, for a country of 60 million people. It's astounding that some people compare the virus to vehicular accident deaths, which are about 50,000 in the US with 330 million people. Even a CEO can be quite severely math-challenged.

Look how low the daily death number was on March 9. And the Italian government recognized the problem and tried to clamp down back then. Imagine how much worse it would be if they did not.

At this point, Italy has 47,021 cases against China's 81,304. And the population is 60 million against 1.3 billion.

Thanks. Wish I had started counting US deaths by day early, but didn't & haven't found one like one for Italy. Anyone?

 

[Aerides]

Thanks. Wish I had started counting US deaths by day early, but didn't & haven't found one like one for Italy. Anyone?

This site has all the trackers, including US deaths on a chart near the bottom:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[gerntz]

One more time, confirmed cases says nothing about total cases in a population, only about that those have been tested. Net, what's the point?

I mean look at LA today:

"A surge in coronavirus cases has Los Angeles County health officials telling doctors to give up on testing patients in the hope of containing the outbreak and instructing them to test patients only if a positive result could change how they would be treated, according to a new report."

 

[gerntz]

This site has all the trackers, including US deaths on a chart near the bottom:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Thanks. I've aware of it. But not my question. How many on March 1? 2? etc.

 

[Rianne]

This site has all the trackers, including US deaths on a chart near the bottom:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Thank you for that chart. Best yet!

 

[GenXguy]

Our county health website still showing 1 case in entire county. I know can't be true, they're just behind in reporting.

None reported in my county as of yesterday. I heard there are several in the Peoria area. I heard it took a week to get COVID-19 test results through one healthcare facility, since they have to send off the tests. And so many people haven't even been tested. I have to believe there are quite a few cases on infected people who just haven't been tested, haven't gotten the results back, and some who may be asymptomatic (yet can spread it). Despite being cautious with distancing and hygiene, I have just come down with a sore throat. I have no allergies, so it's worrisome.

 

[Aerides]

Thanks. I've aware of it. But not my question. How many on March 1? 2? etc.

It's on the site. There are many charts, scroll down, you'll find it. Daily New Deaths in the United States

Mar2 there were 5 US Deaths. Mar3 there were 3.
Yesterday there were 49

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks. Wish I had started counting US deaths by day early, but didn't & haven't found one like one for Italy. Anyone?

Another poster and myself posted a source of info as www.worldometers.info earlier, but it was missed among the many posts.

About the US, total cases are 19,931, with 275 deaths as of this posting in the morning of 3/21/2020, according to John Hopkins. If they update this more than once a day, expect to see this higher at the end of day.

One thing people forget is that unlike car accidents where fatalities are quickly determined, patients of this virus often linger for a long time of several weeks before succumbing. Hence, the number of deaths runs behind by that long. So, do not think that the death rate is 275/19931 = 1.38%.

I saw a European interview of a nurse in Italy. He said that of the people put on ventilators, he had not seen one recovered. They either died or lingered on, and he had a patient who had been on the ventilator for 20 days. I don't remember if he said how many were under his care.

PS. Worldometers.info has the more up-to-date numbers. Total cases: 22,085, with 282 deaths.

PPS. Come to think of it, if ventilators do not help to recover from this virus for most people, then it is not that important if there are not enough.

 

[Jerry1]

Thought you statisticians would like to see this. It's from a holistic Dr. I follow:

Addendum: In previous posts, I wrote that the flu death rate is 0.1% as reported by the CDC. That number fluctuates each flu season. It is based on an estimate of the number of flu-infected Americans. The 10% number is based on confirmed cases of the flu as I showed you above. COVID-19 is currently being reported on confirmed cases. It is inappropriate to compare COVID-19 death rates with estimated CDC flu rate numbers. A direct comparison is done by using actual confirmed flu and COVID-19 cases which I have done in this post.

His base statement was the COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu and that the stats were misleading. While that may be true, my concern is still the same. Not so much death, but hospital capacity. Even if COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu, it seems to be much more healthcare intensive. Anecdotal evidence in this case is hard to escape - hospitals are filling up. Of course, that does also happen in a bad flu year.

 

[USGrant1962]

Thought you statisticians would like to see this. It's from a holistic Dr. I follow:

Addendum: In previous posts, I wrote that the flu death rate is 0.1% as reported by the CDC. That number fluctuates each flu season. It is based on an estimate of the number of flu-infected Americans. The 10% number is based on confirmed cases of the flu as I showed you above. COVID-19 is currently being reported on confirmed cases. It is inappropriate to compare COVID-19 death rates with estimated CDC flu rate numbers. A direct comparison is done by using actual confirmed flu and COVID-19 cases which I have done in this post.

His base statement was the COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu and that the stats were misleading. While that may be true, my concern is still the same. Not so much death, but hospital capacity. Even if COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu, it seems to be much more healthcare intensive. Anecdotal evidence in this case is hard to escape - hospitals are filling up. Of course, that does also happen in a bad flu year.

I wonder if there is any data? I've heard a lot of "hospitals could be overwhelmed" but nothing to indicate that even one has exceeded capacity.

 

[ERD50]

Another poster and myself posted a source of info as www.worldometers.info earlier, but it was missed among the many posts.

About the US, total cases are 19,931, with 275 deaths as of this posting in the morning of 3/21/2020 ... .

Just a note for those looking at the most recent day's numbers on that site - those "days" are based on GMT.

I'm looking now, and it says "Last updated: March 21, 2020, 18:50 GMT", and it is now ~ 2PM CT. And the updates are: " ... 32 new deaths in the United States"

At a glance, I was thinking we are just passed half-way through the day (14/24ths) , so a rough estimate might be 2 X 32 deaths, expect ~ 60 deaths today at this rate. But we are about 80% through the day based on GMT, so expect 32/0.8 ~ 40 to be reported.

PS - nobody should be looking this close, but some of us can't help it!

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

I wonder if there is any data? I've heard a lot of "hospitals could be overwhelmed" but nothing to indicate that even one has exceeded capacity.

Anecdote. My daughter is a nurse at a large suburban hospital outside of Chicago. She hasn't noticed any change.

Repeat: Anecdote.

-ERD50

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Thanks. Wish I had started counting US deaths by day early, but didn't & haven't found one like one for Italy. Anyone?

I first started taking notice of this potential virus threat back in late January, then started keeping notes of the statistics given by news outlets on January 29. (We here in the greater Seattle area began noticing something brewing around here by late Feb.) It wasn't until very late Feb or earlier this month that I began using the John Hopkins "Dashboard" figures to keep tract.

Per early reporting here in the Seattle area, and then that John Hopkins "Dashboard" site

• 29 Jan: 6,000 CV-19 cases (worldwide, mostly in China), 133 deaths
• 07 Feb: 34,000 WW (1,013 deaths)
• 13 Feb: 60,000 (1,300)
• 20 Feb: 75,000 (2,100)
• 24 Feb: 53 cases identified in the USA; Italy has the 5th highest national total (behind China, South Korea, Japan, and Iran)
• 01 March: 87,470 (2,990); USA: 72 (no reported deaths)
• 2 March: 89,250 (3,048); USA: 86 (6 deaths—all in King/Snohomish counties of WA state)
• 3 March: 92,315 (3,131): USA: 108 (21 in King County alone)(8 deaths)
• 6 March: 100,000+ (101,490 world-wide)(3,460 deaths)
• 8 March: 109,609 (3,800)
• 11 March: 121,564 (4,373): USA: 1,050 (31 US deaths, 23 in King County alone)
• 2020-03-12: 127,863 (4,718); USA: 1,323 (the night before, the NBA suspended the balance of its season after a Utah Jazz player tested positive)
• 2020-03-16: 174,893 (6,705); USA: 4,093 (82 deaths, 43 in King County alone)
• 2020-03-18 (earlier this morning): 207,518 (8,248): USA: 7,324 (112 US deaths)
• As of right this minute (March 18), per Johns Hopkins: 214,894 (8,732)(USA: 8th highest national total, with 7,769; 121 deaths)

 

[MichaelB]

Thanks. Wish I had started counting US deaths by day early, but didn't & haven't found one like one for Italy. Anyone?

The WHO COVID daily situation report shows cumulative and new cases by country. You can look at the daily report you're interested in, compare and calculate the changes. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

[misanman]

When little Johnny goes out drinking

Bars/restaurants here are closed and highways are basically empty. Should see a sharp drop in fatalities due to drunk driving.

 

[NW-Bound]

... His base statement was the COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu and that the stats were misleading. While that may be true, my concern is still the same. Not so much death, but hospital capacity. Even if COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu, it seems to be much more healthcare intensive. Anecdotal evidence in this case is hard to escape - hospitals are filling up. Of course, that does also happen in a bad flu year.

Does this doctor offer any explanation as to why it is so bad in Italy? Just bad luck, or a genetic factor, or something else?

Anecdote. My daughter is a nurse at a large suburban hospital outside of Chicago. She hasn't noticed any change.

Repeat: Anecdote.

-ERD50

Anecdotes are good. We do not want to hear that all hospitals have problems. The more hospitals that do not have problems, the better.

Chicago does not yet have a real problem. There are 585 confirmed cases so far in Illinois. Nor does AZ with 108 so far. And not all cases require hospitalization anyway.

Of course when you look for hospital occupancy, then the state population enters into the equation. A state with a large population should have more hospital beds, and can accommodate a large number of patients.

About states with hospitals that might be overwhelmed, one should look at WA (1524 cases), and NY (10,356 cases). It is easy to surf the Web for info.

 

[NW-Bound]

I wonder if there is any data? I've heard a lot of "hospitals could be overwhelmed" but nothing to indicate that even one has exceeded capacity.

Because some states instituted the lockdown early or at least promote social distancing, hopefully we will not have a problem. Then, things will be back to normal sooner.

China is already recovering, and starting up their factories.

Italy daily death number is still rising. Other European countries are following suit.

PS. Again, in the US, one can easily surf the Web for info on WA and NY, the two states with a high number of cases as I mentioned in the earlier post.