WHO - Confirmed cases doubled in 12 days

[Jerry1]

Does this doctor offer any explanation as to why it is so bad in Italy? Just bad luck, or a genetic factor, or something else?

I do not see him mention Italy. His main focus is that while not a cure, there are holistic (natural) protocols that treat this rather effectively. Obviously, there's a huge benefit to having a strong immune system and treatments that improve immune function can't help but be positive. In no way is he claiming a cure, just that his standard protocol for a cold or flu (any virus) works on COVID-19 too.

 

[NW-Bound]

We know that many Covid-19 patients do well on their own. For these people, some treatments may just be placebo.

The tough thing to deal with is cases that require hospitalization, and even some young people (20-50) end up in ICU. That is what the entire world is trying to find drugs for.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's the latest info on NY state, for people who have problems finding it.

NY state now has more than 10,000 cases, with 6,200 in NYC alone. Officials are preparing for an onslaught. They are doing things China did in Wuhan.

Cuomo said the state is trying to increase its hospital beds by 50,000 to 75,000 by ending elective surgeries, reconfiguring space and adding medical staff. The state is considering several sites to convert into temporary hospitals, including the Javits Center in New York, state college campuses at Stony Brook and Westbury, and the Westbury Convention Center.

The state is trying to source 2 million masks from suppliers around the globe and buying 6,000 new ventilators. The Army Corps of Engineers has been asked to supply the state with four field hospitals, each with a capacity for 250 patients.

 

[CardsFan]

Estimates versus actual

Thought you statisticians would like to see this. It's from a holistic Dr. I follow:

Addendum: In previous posts, I wrote that the flu death rate is 0.1% as reported by the CDC. That number fluctuates each flu season. It is based on an estimate of the number of flu-infected Americans. The 10% number is based on confirmed cases of the flu as I showed you above. COVID-19 is currently being reported on confirmed cases. It is inappropriate to compare COVID-19 death rates with estimated CDC flu rate numbers. A direct comparison is done by using actual confirmed flu and COVID-19 cases which I have done in this post.

His base statement was the COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu and that the stats were misleading. While that may be true, my concern is still the same. Not so much death, but hospital capacity. Even if COVID-19 is not as deadly as the flu, it seems to be much more healthcare intensive. Anecdotal evidence in this case is hard to escape - hospitals are filling up. Of course, that does also happen in a bad flu year.

Based on the above, I did a little Googling:

From this paper (cited on CDC website https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#References)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/15/12/09-1413_article

Through July 2009, a total of 43,677 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were reported in the United States, which is likely a substantial underestimate of the true number. Correcting for under-ascertainment using a multiplier model, we estimate that 1.8 million–5.7 million cases occurred, including 9,000–21,000 hospitalizations.

Now this was during the episode, so not final numbers, but is cited by the CDC as a reference for how they estimate the seasonal flu cases.

Not making any conclusions here, just posting for discussion, but it appears that the CDC uses a multiplier of 40 to 130 when evaluating estimated cases of the flu to actual test confirmed cases.

And it does kind of confirm Jerry1's reference that the actual death rate for the flu is 100 times greater when compared to ACTUAL TESTED cases.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am confused here. I thought the H1N1 flu was different than the normal annual influenza.

Secondly, if there were more cases of flu out in the world than laboratory-confirmed cases, then the flu (H1N1 or not) would be even milder. A lot more sick people for only 9,000 to 21,000 hospitalizations.

In any case, every disease is under-reported. The surest thing to look for, as I stumbled on and explained elsewhere, is how many patients show up at the hospital in bad enough shape to be admitted, how many end up in ICU, and how many die.

 

[CardsFan]

I am confused here. I thought the H1N1 flu was different than the normal annual influenza.

Secondly, if there were more cases of flu out in the world than laboratory-confirmed cases, then the flu (H1N1 or not) would be even milder. A lot more sick people for only 9,000 to 21,000 hospitalizations.

In any case, every disease is under-reported. The surest thing to look for, as I stumbled on and explained elsewhere, is how many patients show up at the hospital in bad enough shape to be admitted, how many end up in ICU, and how many die.

Reference bold above:

You are correct on both counts, but the CDC specifically referenced this paper in an article about how they estimate seasonal flu, so I assume it is consistent with their practices.

On the second issue, that will play out. So far, there does not appear to be a problem. That could change. But we also seem to be treating this differently than the flu. High quarantine, hazmat, etc. That WILL tax the healthcare system. The question is: should it?

Late last year I took DMIL to the hospital for a heart episode (no issues, all is good). At that time there were at least 6 people on beds, in the waiting area. Barfing, coughing, and in extreme discomfort. No effort to get them admitted and out of the way quickly. Hey, its just the flu.

I don't want to make light of this, but i wonder if we are over-reacting.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Anecdote. My daughter is a nurse at a large suburban hospital outside of Chicago. She hasn't noticed any change.

Repeat: Anecdote.

-ERD50

Anecdotes are good. We do not want to hear that all hospitals have problems. The more hospitals that do not have problems, the better. ...

Just got off a video chat with her. She says her hospital overall is actually emptier than normal, as so many routine or "this can wait" procedures are being delayed, and Doctors limit visits with patients unless it is more urgent. Which makes sense. They are also prepping an area that they can keep isolated in anticipation. They are seeing some shortages of masks.

Of course this probably will all change, we are early in the cycle yet. But I think this was in response to some fear-mongering statement made earlier by someone that "hospitals are filling up", as in at the present time.

I guess the following applies to different CV threads as well, but I was looking at the S Korea stats, and their cases came down pretty sharply some 20 days ago, but I see no pattern that shows deaths declining. It's "lumpy" data, really hard to say. But it would be expected between incubation period and avg days from diagnosis to death. Hopefully we see a decline there soon. But I'm afraid this is going to make people impatient with the self-isolation, because they won't see any immediate gratification. Hopefully, cooler heads prevail.

-ERD50

 

[gerntz]

It's on the site. There are many charts, scroll down, you'll find it. Daily New Deaths in the United States

Mar2 there were 5 US Deaths. Mar3 there were 3.
Yesterday there were 49

Sorry & thanks. Yes, it's there.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Italy had a large amount of old people that were smokers. That certainly didn’t help.

 

[NW-Bound]

On the second issue, that will play out. So far, there does not appear to be a problem. That could change. But we also seem to be treating this differently than the flu. High quarantine, hazmat, etc. That WILL tax the healthcare system. The question is: should it?
...
I don't want to make light of this, but i wonder if we are over-reacting.

What happens in Italy scared the bejesus out of anybody who pays attention. Italian medical officials have been busy telling the world to watch out and to not get caught off guard as they did.

And other European countries are imposing lockdown, one after another. The US has a late start, but if we do nothing, what would happen? Do we want to test our luck?

Of course this probably will all change, we are early in the cycle yet. But I think this was in response to some fear-mongering statement made earlier by someone that "hospitals are filling up", as in at the present time.

Obviously, not all hospitals are filling up. Some are. See my posts earlier about NYC. All it takes is a superspreader social butterfly who single-handedly infects 50 people, and all hell breaks loose from there. NYC is setting up field hospitals as we speak. Again, anyone can google the info.

Out of 10,000 cases right now in NYC, already 1,600 are hospitalized. They expect to need 50,000 to 75,000 hospital beds, and about 700-934 ICU.

Just now, you can search the Web to see the memo sent out by Dr. Craig Smith, Chair of Dep. of Surgery, NYP/CUIMC telling his colleagues about the mask ration as mask supplies are getting low. I don't think this doctor is fear-mongering.

 

[NW-Bound]

Italy had a large amount of old people that were smokers. That certainly didn’t help.

I have been wondering how it has been so bad in Italy. As things are unfolding in NYC, we will know more in the days ahead how sick Americans fare.

Things happen so fast, in just 1 or 2 more weeks, we will have some numbers to try to understand.

 

[USGrant1962]

What happens in Italy scared the bejesus out of anybody who pays attention. Italian medical officials have been busy telling the world to watch out and to not get caught off guard as they did.

And other European countries are imposing lockdown, one after another. The US has a late start, but if we do nothing, what would happen? Do we want to test our luck?

Obviously, not all hospitals are filling up. Some are. See my posts earlier about NYC. All it takes is a superspreader social butterfly who single-handedly infects 50 people, and all hell breaks loose from there. NYC is setting up field hospitals as we speak. Again, anyone can google the info.

Out of 10,000 cases right now in NYC, already 1,600 are hospitalized. They expect to need 50,000 to 75,000 hospital beds, and about 700-934 ICU.

Just now, you can search the Web to see the memo sent out by Dr. Craig Smith, Chair of Dep. of Surgery, NYP/CUIMC telling his colleagues about the mask ration as mask supplies are getting low. I don't think this doctor is fear-mongering.

The U.S. shut down Schengen Area travel before the Schengen Area. We have shut down a large fraction of the economy. Why are you using words like "if we do nothing"? We are not doing nothing.

And PPE is a totally different issue than hospital beds, and much easier to address in a matter of a week or so. Hanes is now converting a factory to produce N95 masks, for example.

 

[Rickt]

MY sister in law is a RN at NYU hospital. I spoke with her today and she says the NYU hospital is converting all the regular patient rooms into ICU's this weekend.....They expect to get a lot of patients needing ventilators.

We are doing what needs to be done. More and more states are going under lock down.

NJ in complete lock down as of 9pm tonite. Only essential services can be open like gas stations, banks, grocery stores, and liquor stores...…..apparently "Liquor Stores" is now in "essential services" category.

 

[NW-Bound]

The U.S. shut down Schengen Area travel before the Schengen Area. We have shut down a large fraction of the economy. Why are you using words like "if we do nothing"? We are not doing nothing.

And PPE is a totally different issue than hospital beds, and much easier to address in a matter of a week or so. Hanes is now converting a factory to produce N95 masks, for example.

It's true that the US curtailed international travel quickly. And some states are now imposing lockdown. It would not be surprising if more states will do the same if/when the virus spread occurs there.

I should have written "if we did nothing", instead of "if we do nothing".

I asked the question because some people are still saying that the current lockdown is too much, and we should not have done that. But can anybody offer any alternative?

Compared to what was done in China, and now Italy, Spain, and France with the police stopping people out in the street, what we are imposing is really not that draconian. I myself hope that it is enough. We will know soon in just a week or two.

About shortages of supplies, I wanted to point out that even the simplest and cheapest things could cause problems. Laymen like ourselves do not appreciate what shortages doctors and nurses are working with. The public should pay more attention to them.

PS. If the US Surgeon General was urging that the public should not be hoarding masks so that more are available to doctors, I wonder if hospitals also run out of TP.

 

[RobbieB]

I ain' got no masks and I never will.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Italy had a large amount of old people that were smokers. That certainly didn’t help.

I read something today that said factors also include Italy's huge elder (the eldest in Europe?) and high-density population, and its culture of kissing cheeks and hugging, etc. Something also about its pollution levels.


By the way: as of this minute, we are now #3 in confirmed CV-19 cases world-wide, behind Italy and China, per that John Hopkins site.

 

[NW-Bound]

I read something today that said factors also include Italy's huge elder (the eldest in Europe?) and high-density population, and its culture of kissing cheeks and hugging, etc. Something also about its pollution levels.

By the way: as of this minute, we are now #3 in confirmed CV-19 cases world-wide, behind Italy and China, per that John Hopkins site.

Germany has a higher median age than Italy. I don't know how other factors compare between the 2 countries, but Germany has a much lower death rate. However, if you look at the number of recoveries, Germany is showing a very poor number compared to Italy. This means that Germany has most of its patients still in limbo, not dead nor recovered.

About the John Hopkins data, the US day-to-day increase is 36%, while Italy is 14%. We will surpass Italy soon at this rate. Again, I hope this high rate of increase is due to more testing being done to uncover existing cases, and not actual infection rate.

 

[Dtail]

I read something today that said factors also include Italy's huge elder (the eldest in Europe?) and high-density population, and its culture of kissing cheeks and hugging, etc. Something also about its pollution levels.


By the way: as of this minute, we are now #3 in confirmed CV-19 cases world-wide, behind Italy and China, per that John Hopkins site.

It is just a matter of time that we will be #1.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Poland still heating with coal so quite polluted. I don’t know about Italy.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

It is just a matter of time that we will be #1.

There are three CV-19 "tracker" sites I visit (they each update at various times and intervals, so the numbers vary):

• Johns Hopkins Dashboard
• Worldometer Update
• nCoV2019.live (Coronavirus Dashboard)

 

[Dtail]

There are three CV-19 "tracker" sites I visit (they each update at various times and intervals, so the numbers vary):

• Johns Hopkins Dashboard
• Worldometer Update
• nCoV2019.live (Coronavirus Dashboard)

I use the first 2 sites you mentioned, but it appears that the Worldometer site gets the info more timely.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

I use the first 2 sites you mentioned, but it appears that the Worldometer site gets the info more timely.

One interesting thing about that third site (besides the fact that it was created and is run by some high-school kid here in WA state) is that it provides daily percentage changes. Today, Italy is up ~9.4%, while the US is up over 37%!

 

[kyzymurgist]

Best proposal for containment so far. Must read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

[NW-Bound]

“The number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 200 000. It took over three months to reach the first 100 00 confirmed cases, and only 12 days to reach the next 100 000.”

Am sure lots of this is just the fact testing is becoming more widely available, still pretty startling.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0319-sitrep-59-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=c3dcdef9_2

That OP was made on 3/20.

Now, on 3/22, the number of worldwide cases is 335,972.

 

[NW-Bound]

That OP was made on 3/20.

Now, on 3/22, the number of worldwide cases is 335,972.

Today is 3/24. The number of worldwide cases is 417,582.

Looking at the chart on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, one sees clearly two phases.

From Jan 22 to Feb 20, nearly all of the cases were in China. The exponential curve was inflected downward very quickly, and if you go to the curve just for China, you can see that the daily increase rate was reversed quickly at Feb 05. The jump at Feb 12 was caused by a reclassification of criteria for case confirmation, but the daily rate continues the downward trend after that.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Now, going back to the worldwide count, we can easily see that the world outside of China started going on Feb 21. And it has been going strong since.

It is clear that China's draconian lockdown measure that was instituted early had an immediate effect. They did not have the equivalent of unfortunate Italy suffering, while some other Europeans reveling with "corona parties".

And now, there are videos of some European hospitals out of bed, and patients are shown lying on the ground in the hallway. They are reliving the nightmare in Wuhan, again and again. I guess people never learn.