Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[brewer12345]

A useful stat would be the hospitalization *rate*.

The hard part there is that there is a lag between getting sick and being hospitalized. So what number of tests or positives do you compare to the number of hospitalizations? Today? A week ago? Three weeks ago? I prefer the raw data of how many are currently hospitalized and how much capacity is left. That tells me a lot about how much of a disaster things are and how close we are to overwhelming the system.

 

[gerntz]

So when we get to 100+k cases a day will you feel the same?

Depends on deaths & hospitalizations.

 

[Freedom56]

Florida set a new record for infections.

https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/florida-coronavirus-state-reports-record-10109-new-cases/

Considering the long term unknowns for those who contracted the virus and recovered, it's still better to avoid putting yourself at risk of infection.

https://www.healthline.com/health-n...term-effects-of-covid-19#Who-is-most-at-risk?

 

[PatrickA5]

Florida set a new record for infections.

https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/florida-coronavirus-state-reports-record-10109-new-cases/

Considering the long term unknowns for those who contracted the virus and recovered, it's still better to avoid putting yourself at risk of infection.

https://www.healthline.com/health-n...term-effects-of-covid-19#Who-is-most-at-risk?

It will be a long time before we know the unknown problems this virus will show. Is a 60 year old that gets it now and recovers going to have a few years of life expectancy knocked off? Will all of those 20 year olds having Covid Parties have the ultimate regret when they turn 60? Like I said, we won't know for years.

 

[Ed B]

Sorry about your friends, I understand Parker County only has about 125 "active" cases, so your county is faring much better than Tarrant and Dallas.

Parker County is significantly under reported. Our county judge is under some local heat for this and they are working to "help the state" fix these numbers. /eyeroll

But you are correct. Parker County is doing much better than Tarrant, Dallas, Denton and Collin counties

 

[Freedom56]

It will be a long time before we know the unknown problems this virus will show. Is a 60 year old that gets it now and recovers going to have a few years of life expectancy knocked off? Will all of those 20 year olds having Covid Parties have the ultimate regret when they turn 60? Like I said, we won't know for years.

By brother is a radiologist and most of his diagnostic imaging is for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients. They are seeing scarring in the lungs and other organs for patients that recover as well as asymptomatic patients. There is still no evidence that someone develops immunity after contracting the virus.

 

[travelover]

....... Will all of those 20 year olds having Covid Parties have the ultimate regret when they turn 60? Like I said, we won't know for years.

They may wish they'd had a chance to get to know their grandparents better.

 

[audreyh1]

A useful stat would be the hospitalization *rate*.

The absolute number hospitalized is enough as hospital beds are generally a finite resource, surge plans or not.

The positivity rate is simply quoted to demonstrate that the spread is increasing rather than being a result of more testing. In fact it demonstrates that the testing is not keeping up with the spread.

And now that testing labs are overwhelmed, it's just going to get worse.

 

[REWahoo]

Excerpt from an interview with a Dr. at a San Antonio regional hospital treating critically ill Covid-19 patients:

Dr. Jeffrey Dellavolpe: "Yesterday was probably the worst day I every had."

CNN: " Why?"

Dr. Jeffrey Dellavolpe: "I got 10 calls. Young people who would otherwise be excellent candidates to be able to put on ECMO [ Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation, a procedure to oxygenate the blood]. They're so sick that if they don't get put on if they don't get that support, they are probably going to die. I have three beds. And just making that decision of who would benefit. It is a level of decision-making that I don't think a lot of us are prepared for."

https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/san-antonio-hospital-overwhelmed-with-covid-19-patients

 

[Chuckanut]

So when we get to 100+k cases a day will you feel the same?

We're #12 in total cases per million. Behind places like Qatar and Mayotte (look it up). Lucky us.

 

[Brat]

Between my wife and I, we have 8 friends or family who have COVID-19 and they have all been infected in June. One more will be tested tomorrow. Her husband is in the hospital with it. Only one has died so far.

I live 30 miles West of Fort Worth.

Let me do the math: 8, maybe 9 infected, "only" one died. Death rate of 11- 13%. Not good odds in my book.

 

[W2R]

Excerpt from an interview with a Dr. at a San Antonio regional hospital treating critically ill Covid-19 patients:[...]

That is utterly horrifying.

Last night I told Frank that although I am not in a state of panic, we need to take logical, rational steps to prepare for the worst right NOW while we have the time to do so. I showed him the graph below where it seems to me that we are entering, or in, a second wave. At the very least things are deteriorating here.

Yesterday we went to the gym, ate lunch out, and then he went to Academy while I sat in the car. All three places were enforcing the new mandate to wear masks inside. One has to wear masks going in and out at restaurants and gyms, but can remove them to eat or when exercising (although many at the gym were exercising with their masks on). The restaurant denied entry to the people right before us because they weren't wearing masks. They were firm about it even though it almost got ugly. F said Academy was also strictly requiring masks too, and had a man at the door enforcing it and giving out free masks to customers who needed one.

I hate to be a pessimist but things do not look good here, and the situation in San Antonio is considerably worse at the moment than what we are seeing. I am preparing for four months of strict lockdown and if it doesn't happen, well then I'll say "good" and move on with my life. That would surprise me, though.

 

[Teacher Terry]

I don’t think the country will tightly lockdown again because of the economy and people complaining. Nevada shouldn’t have opened up the casinos and bars when they did.

 

[Another Reader]

It will be a long time before we know the unknown problems this virus will show. Is a 60 year old that gets it now and recovers going to have a few years of life expectancy knocked off? Will all of those 20 year olds having Covid Parties have the ultimate regret when they turn 60? Like I said, we won't know for years.

We are beginning to get a picture now. Look up "long haul COVID." I belong to two support groups with over 5,000 members each. The average age of these people is probably 30 in one group, a little older in the other group. Lots of young, healthy people, including athletes. These are people with serious to severe symptoms that have had them for months in some cases. A lot of them report damage to lungs, hearts, and GI tracts - COVID can attack anywhere in the body. It's not a respiratory virus, it is a disease of the endothelial tissue - where the most ace-2 receptors are found.

All of these people are consuming enormous amounts of expensive medical care. Tests, scans, doctor time. Many will continue to need medical support for years. We are going to have to pay for all of this care.

I have been saying for a couple of months that COVID will be the HIV of this generation, only bigger and more expensive. I read that Dr. Fauci made the same comparison.

 

[Another Reader]

That is utterly horrifying.

Last night I told Frank that although I am not in a state of panic, we need to take logical, rational steps to prepare for the worst right NOW while we have the time to do so. I showed him the graph below where it seems to me that we are entering, or in, a second wave. At the very least things are deteriorating here.

Yesterday we went to the gym, ate lunch out, and then he went to Academy while I sat in the car. All three places were enforcing the new mandate to wear masks inside. One has to wear masks going in and out at restaurants and gyms, but can remove them to eat or when exercising (although many at the gym were exercising with their masks on). The restaurant denied entry to the people right before us because they weren't wearing masks. They were firm about it even though it almost got ugly. F said Academy was also strictly requiring masks too, and had a man at the door enforcing it and giving out free masks to customers who needed one.

I hate to be a pessimist but things do not look good here, and the situation in San Antonio is considerably worse at the moment than what we are seeing. I am preparing for four months of strict lockdown and if it doesn't happen, well then I'll say "good" and move on with my life. That would surprise me, though.

Seventeen thousand people died in NYC in just a few weeks. Those decisions were made every day there. Guess where everyone wears masks?

 

[Montecfo]

The absolute number hospitalized is enough as hospital beds are generally a finite resource, surge plans or not.

The positivity rate is simply quoted to demonstrate that the spread is increasing rather than being a result of more testing. In fact it demonstrates that the testing is not keeping up with the spread.

And now that testing labs are overwhelmed, it's just going to get worse.

Well the hospitalization *rate* is relevant as it illustrates changes in seriousness of disease for those contracting it. Publishing and tracking it is simply providing valuable information for medical professionals, elected officials and the general public.

We saw in NY that more beds can be added if needed. Same thing here in Virginia where sites for popup hospitals were identified and planned for, though they have not been needed.

More information is better than less as I see it. Nothing complicated about publishing the hospitalization *rate*.

 

[Montecfo]

The hard part there is that there is a lag between getting sick and being hospitalized. So what number of tests or positives do you compare to the number of hospitalizations? Today? A week ago? Three weeks ago? I prefer the raw data of how many are currently hospitalized and how much capacity is left. That tells me a lot about how much of a disaster things are and how close we are to overwhelming the system.

The most important thing is to do it using consistent methodology. None of the stats are truly "accurate". Tests have false positives and negatives. People who did not die of Covid are nonetheless counted as COVID and many are no doubt missed.

But we still use and rely on that information.

More info is better than less.

 

[Dtail]

We're #12 in total cases per million. Behind places like Qatar and Mayotte (look it up). Lucky us.

We will be in the top 10 soon enough.

 

[brewer12345]

The most important thing is to do it using consistent methodology. None of the stats are truly "accurate". Tests have false positives and negatives. People who did not die of Covid are nonetheless counted as COVID and many are no doubt missed.

But we still use and rely on that information.

More info is better than less.

The raw data is readily available and I presume a CFO can do division, so...

 

[jcfradio]

Now I read about colleges having Covid Parties. Kids with known virus come to the party and the other kids try to get it. They put money in a pot and the first one to contract the virus wins the pot.

We're doomed....

Ah, college students...our leaders of the future

In times like these, I long for the social insights of George Carlin who said:

"just imagine how stupid the average person is, then realize that half of the people are stupider than that"

 

[timo2]

July 1, 2020 Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020

Key Points
Question: Did more all-cause deaths occur during the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States compared with the same months during previous years?

Findings: In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122 000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.

Meaning: Official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states.

Conclusions and Relevance: Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.

Related to this thread: The gap between the reported COVID-19 deaths and the estimated all-cause excess deaths varied among states .... For instance, California had 4046 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 6800 (95% prediction interval, 6100-7500) excess all-cause deaths, leaving 41% of the excess deaths unattributed to COVID-19 (Table). Texas and Arizona had even wider gaps, with approximately 55% and 53% of the excess deaths unattributed to COVID-19, respectively. In contrast, there was better agreement between the reported COVID-19 deaths and the excess all-cause deaths in Minnesota, with 12% unattributed to COVID-19 (bold added by me)


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

 

[audreyh1]

Thanks - I’ve read many tallies and it comes out that there were more excess deaths (above average deaths) than any of the official counts on COVID-19 deaths. The graphs are quite stark too showing how the excess deaths jump up from average early in the year an diverge dramatically.

 

[Lsbcal]

That is utterly horrifying.

Last night I told Frank that although I am not in a state of panic, we need to take logical, rational steps to prepare for the worst right NOW while we have the time to do so. I showed him the graph below where it seems to me that we are entering, or in, a second wave. At the very least things are deteriorating here.

Yesterday we went to the gym, ate lunch out, and then he went to Academy while I sat in the car. All three places were enforcing the new mandate to wear masks inside. One has to wear masks going in and out at restaurants and gyms, but can remove them to eat or when exercising (although many at the gym were exercising with their masks on). The restaurant denied entry to the people right before us because they weren't wearing masks. They were firm about it even though it almost got ugly. F said Academy was also strictly requiring masks too, and had a man at the door enforcing it and giving out free masks to customers who needed one.

...

My unsolicited opinion is to stay away from gyms and eating out. Wear masks when unable to stay away from others or when in confined indoor public spaces. Take all precautions seriously. Don't compromise.

 

[Freedom56]

That is utterly horrifying.

Last night I told Frank that although I am not in a state of panic, we need to take logical, rational steps to prepare for the worst right NOW while we have the time to do so. I showed him the graph below where it seems to me that we are entering, or in, a second wave. At the very least things are deteriorating here.

Yesterday we went to the gym, ate lunch out, and then he went to Academy while I sat in the car. All three places were enforcing the new mandate to wear masks inside. One has to wear masks going in and out at restaurants and gyms, but can remove them to eat or when exercising (although many at the gym were exercising with their masks on). The restaurant denied entry to the people right before us because they weren't wearing masks. They were firm about it even though it almost got ugly. F said Academy was also strictly requiring masks too, and had a man at the door enforcing it and giving out free masks to customers who needed one.

I hate to be a pessimist but things do not look good here, and the situation in San Antonio is considerably worse at the moment than what we are seeing. I am preparing for four months of strict lockdown and if it doesn't happen, well then I'll say "good" and move on with my life. That would surprise me, though.

I would wear a face shield or glasses with your mask if you don't have an N95 mask.

 

[Janet H]

Yesterday we went to the gym, ate lunch out, and then he went to Academy while I sat in the car. All three places were enforcing the new mandate to wear masks inside. One has to wear masks going in and out at restaurants and gyms, but can remove them to eat or when exercising (although many at the gym were exercising with their masks on). The restaurant denied entry to the people right before us because they weren't wearing masks. They were firm about it even though it almost got ugly. F said Academy was also strictly requiring masks too, and had a man at the door enforcing it and giving out free masks to customers who needed one.

For many months now I have avoided unneeded risk and will continue to as long as needed.

A member of my family caught this 2 months ago and spent 2 weeks in the icu. Once healthy, vibrant and active, she is now incapacitated with a long recovery ahead. She had several clot related strokes, has lung scarring and heart scarring, has lost much motor function and may forever need assistive care. She is slowly relearning to walk and talk and eat. She is unable to work at the j*b she loved and is buried in medical bills which will likely cost her her house and much of her nest egg despite having medical insurance.

By my reckoning, gyms and restaurants and many public spaces bring unneeded risk and have been excised from my routine. I can cook and work up a sweat all by myself and want to do everything possible to keep the chances of infection to a minimum. Do I like it? No. Still, I do other things I dislike because they are in my best interest (wearing seat belts, obeying speed limits, eating only one Mounds bar at a time), I can do this as well.

Please, please consider this as you move through your day. Be careful, be safe, stay well.