Prediction: California Real Estate

[kcowan]

Would the immediate need for 1800 more homes be expected to rescue SOCAL this year?

 

[honobob]

Invest in Real Property Now

The Bay Area's pace of home sales were slightly worse, down 42 percent from a year ago. But the median price climbed almost 9 percent from a year ago, to $810,490. The median home price gained 3.3 percent in October over September's.

There’s another $73,000 to put in the old equity bank!

And nationwide……Over 70% of “ranked MSAs are up!

• Of the 287 cities on OFHEO’s list of “ranked” MSAs, 204 had positive four-quarter appreciation and 83 had price declines.

Makes you wonder if we’re being manipulated into using our tax dollars to add to the astronomical profits already made by the builders and lenders.

 

[REWahoo]

I didn't see any link or reference for the data in the previous post, but it sure seems to conflict with this information released today by the US govt.

U.S. home prices are falling, first time in 13 years

"U.S. home prices marked a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter, according to government data released Thursday that provide fresh evidence of the housing market slump.

Home prices dipped 0.4% nationwide in the July-September period, compared with the previous quarter, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said."

"Price declines were steepest in California (down 3.6%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Michigan (3.7%), Nevada (2.4%) and Rhode Island (2.2%)."

 

[twaddle]

Here's the link honobob didn't want you to see:

Bay Area median prices rise, but overall home sales news grim


Sales in the Bay Area, which the group defines as Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo and Solano counties, fell 41.5 percent. The median price in the region was up 8.9 percent to $810,490, compared with $744,300 a year ago. Median price is strongly affected by the composition of homes sold; in the Bay Area the median has been buoyed because a greater number of more-expensive homes have been sold.

Looks like the GOOG effect. Maybe google can save us all. Keep buying their stock and mint a few more stock option millionaires!

 

[tryan]

Yeah, it's getting hard to say the glass is half full:


House prices slip in half of U.S. cities - MSN Money

 

[twaddle]

You want optimism? I've got some optimism for you! As prices drop, affordability goes up. In Orange County, CA affordability has doubled!

(from 2.4% to 4.8%)

Lansner on Real Estate » Blog Archive » O.C. home affordability ‘doubles’ … to 4.8% - OCRegister.com

 

[deserat]

I live in Solano County - halfway between SF and Sacramento. I know the selling prices have gone down *however* those selling prices are still about double the 2000 prices out here. What's interesting is there's a lot of new housing being built, but I notice it has creeped to a stall - plus lots of incentives to buy - price reductions, nice freebies.

Don't know about the rental market, but when I rented out this house, the interest rates were low enough that people could buy a house for what they were renting, so the pool of 'good' tenant applicants significantly decreased.

I'll still make money when I sell in either a year or two - and leave the state of CA.

 

[haha]

I saw an article in the Seattle Times that Microsoft is going to slow down its hiring. They have been on a headcount tear for several years, so this should impact the Seattle Market over time. I think of the cartoon- is it the fox who runs off a cliff- and stands there running in midair for a bit before down he goes?

Real estate agents are to use the most charitable term, very optimistic. So they will always be talking up the great opportunities to buy now.

I find myself gripped by the anchoring heuristic. I have seen prices go up for so long without any break, no matter what pessimistic ideas were put forth, or what doubts I had, that I find it quite hard to believe that it won't just continue forevermore.

It probably will, and eventually affordability will be 0.01%, and no transactions will take place. When people divorce they will just move their new lovers into the guest room. When older folks die, their kids will parcel out the rooms and live like a big happy extended family.

You see folks, it's all good.

Ha

 

[twaddle]

is it the fox who runs off a cliff

A fox? Suffering succotash!

 

[honobob]

"U.S. home prices marked a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter, according to government data released Thursday that provide fresh evidence of the housing market slump.

Home prices dipped .004 (.. thats 4 thousandths !!!) nationwide in the July-September period, compared with the previous quarter (NOT YOY Let's see..April May June prices higher..could be that nationwide those are more active market times vs. late summer/ fall period) , the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said."

"Price declines were steepest in California (down 3.6%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Michigan (3.7%), Nevada (2.4%) and Rhode Island (2.2%)."

So almost four years of beating this horse..er...house we've dropped as a nation for the first time in 13 years 0000.4%? At least they said dipped vs, the standard paper seller "plummet". I thought you publicly proclaimed me on your "ignore list"? Quit supporting my position.

 

[REWahoo]

I thought you publically proclaimed me on your "ignore list"?

I don't recall stating this, but might have.

Since I agreed to help out again as a moderator, I had to dump my ignore list and read everything posted. But now that I've finished up my temporary assignment, I can once again go back to enjoying the luxury of deciding what posts I want to read, and what posts I don't.

 

[honobob]

Here's the link honobob didn't want you to see:

Twaddle
Selling in 2002.......Wrong
Selling in 2003.......Wrong
SFGate link...........Wrong

Info was from SFBusiness Times. They didn't have the San Jose 11% increase or I'd jumped all over that. And the OFHEO info (I discount their info for my purposes but they're your fave) was direct from them.

Honobob is all about full disclosure. Please don't speak for me. Aren't I the only one posting actual property addresses?

 

[honobob]

I don't recall stating this, but might have. I can once again go back to enjoying the luxury of deciding what posts I want to read, and what posts I don't.

And I could be wrong on this. I did try to search. So...to quote Heidi Klum, "Am I in, or am I out?"

 

[twaddle]

Info was from SFBusiness Times.

Just trying to help.

Was it this one?

California home sales, median price in free fall - San Francisco Business Times:


"The Bay Area will feel the pain," Steve Buster, CEO of the Mechanics Bank in Richmond, said in an interview with the Business Times this week.

 

[honobob]

Just trying to help.

Was it this one?

California home sales, median price in free fall - San Francisco Business Times:

You da man! "Free fall"? 9% increase!! Makes me think of "oil and vinegar" or "50% off" and "beach property"

 

[twaddle]

We feel your pain, honobob. Especially those of us who are staking their retirements on stuff like used tables and chairs. I'm sure prices will pick up.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Honobob...I think that was the other grumpy ex moderator that had you on his ignore list

In other news...

 

[haha]

Hey this is my kind of thread

Lots of big laughs to go with my cheapo wine and pork rinds. By the way, you have to try soft goat cheese on pork rinds-ummm!

Ha

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Just enjoyed a toasted hot roast beef sandwich with a healthy amount of horseradish cheddar on it and some carmelized onions. The popcorn is just the topper.

 

[honobob]

I don't recall stating this, but might have.

brewer12345
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...

Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 7,438



Thanks for reminding me of another name to add to my ignore list...
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.



Sorry, I humbly apologize. I was referring to this. BFF? CFB, thanks for bringing up an ugly piece of the past!! But in my defense, I'm one of 10..11..12 and growing!!!!!!

 

[honobob]

The popcorn is just the topper.

And what's up with "popcorn"? Isn't it popped corn? Do we say "devil egg"? No, it's "deviled egg" !

 

[Nords]

When older folks die, their kids will parcel out the rooms and live like a big happy extended family.

People aren't waiting for their parents to die... some ohana housing has three generations under one roof with all sorts of extended-family-friendly privacy features.

We bought our "dream house" from the estate of the deceased parents, where the trustee (brother-in-law) was living here with his daughter & grandson while trying to ride herd on the two (teenage) beneficiaries and an adult son from the deceased mother's previous marriage. The garage had been used as a mother-in-law apartment. There were also various friends & ex-cellmates living here "temporarily". We haven't really sorted out all the relationships although the neighbors (and the police) had a bunch of stories. Apparently no one knew how to operate a Swiffer, let alone a vacuum cleaner or a toilet snake. But the place had "good bones" under a layer of filth and what submariners call "deferred maintenance".

However we can see that 2400 sq ft and an orchard is going to be a pain to maintain when we're in our 80s. It's in a good school district, but we won't care about that in a couple more years. So if our kid ends up with her own family then there'll probably be some sort of intergenerational home swapping to let the [-]suckers[/-] young 'uns enjoy their own dream-house experience. We just have to figure out the correct process to minimize the gift/estate taxes.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

However we can see that 2400 sq ft and an orchard is going to be a pain to maintain when we're in our 80s.

I dont know about you, but its a pain to do in my 40's...

 

[honobob]

Feelins oh oh oh feelings..no pain

We feel your pain, honobob. Especially those of us who are staking their retirements on stuff like used tables and chairs. I'm sure prices will pick up.

Totally went over my head! Trust me, Honobob is not feeling the pain. Celebrating the 15% hono and the 9% SFBayarea!! BBRibs, a little Fat Tire followed by a chilled Grey Goose dry martoonie.....(s)

Your buds at OFHEO........
2. The states with the greatest
rates of appreciation between the
third quarter of 2006 and the third
quarter of 2007 were: Utah (12.9%),
Wyoming (11.8%), Montana (7.7%),
New Mexico (7.4%), and Washington
(7.0%).

 

[honobob]

Honobob...I think that was the other grumpy ex moderator that had you on his ignore list

No. I'm sure you're referring to Dopey. I'm only confused about who's Grumpy.