Gas $4 this summer

[easysurfer]

The problem is that a plug-in hybrid with a range of 30 all-electric miles will take the market from the Prius if it is priced competitively. Toyota is in danger of getting made obsolete.

The Leaf is all electric, which isn't all that practical. I want the ability to use gasoline if I want to go on a longer trip.

A 30 mile all-electric range is enough to remove any gasoline from my work commute, but I would still make longer trips using gas on occasion.

I think the key to all electric is not even the range (though at least 200 miles would be nice), but the amount of charging stations around. I hear that Walgreens plans on installing charging stations across the country, but still the charge time isn't too quick.

http://www.walgreens.com/topic/sr/sr_electric_vehicle_charging_stations.jsp

 

[Midpack]

I think the key to all electric is not even the range (though at least 200 miles would be nice), but the amount of charging stations around. I hear that Walgreens plans on installing charging stations across the country, but still the charge time isn't too quick.

EV Charging Stations | Environmental Sustainability | Social Responsibility | Walgreens

That's always the issue that befuddles me. No matter what kind of outing (local, or trip distance), if I exceed the range of the EV and need a charge, I don't want to be out of commission for 2/4/8/12 hours - and that's if there's not a line for the charging station. With current technology, the EV seems useful only as a second vehicle, for short range commuting, charging at home evenings. You still need an IC car to visit Grandma, owned or rented.

There are companies/countries exploring wholesale battery swap stations. That solves the charge time issue, but imagine the battery standardization and infrastructure investment involved. Maybe we'll see EV Zipcars take over in large metro areas at least.

Who knows, I am sure we'll see elegant solutions one day, it will be fascinating to watch...'all great inventions were things that were once thought to be impossible.'

 

[Hamlet]

I would think it would start selling if it's net cost got down to the $25k range rather than $32.5k.

I'm typically a used car purchaser, so any purchase by me will be at least several years out.

I'm just amazed that Toyota has still not made a plug-in hybrid with a useful all-electric range.

Big "if." So, at what competitive price would you buy the Volt?

 

[Midpack]

See below...

I would think it would start selling if it's net cost got down to the $25k range rather than $32.5k. So plug-in hybrid technology for no upcharge at all - not sure how realistic that is. The $7500 tax credit isn't going to go on indefinitely, it will be phased out just as the hybrid credit has been. Some would argue it never...[self edited].

I'm typically a used car purchaser, so any purchase by me will be at least several years out.

I'm just amazed that Toyota has still not made a plug-in hybrid with a useful all-electric range. Given the miniscule sales of Tesla, Volt, Leaf and any others, I'd say Toyota is pretty savvy. They have a Prius Plug-In coming soon (though very short range), and I am confident they could match the range specs of the Volt whenever they decide it's worthwhile.

 

[Hamlet]

Maybe. I think that they are running the risk of losing their leadership in the hybrid market down the road.

Remember, the Prius had miniscule sales at first as well. By allowing others to come to market in this area first, I think Toyota may be sacrificing their first mover advantage.

A plug-in hybrid that doesn't allow for a normal commute doesn't serve much purpose in my mind.

Given the miniscule sales of Tesla, Volt, Leaf and any others, I'd say Toyota is pretty savvy. They have a Prius Plug-In coming soon (though very short range), and I am confident they could match the range specs of the Volt whenever they decide it's worthwhile.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Wow! A lotta activity on this thread real fast! As always, I have several foolish things to say.

For both national security reasons, and economic reasons, we should be utilizing the energy resources we have available, thus coal, crude, and nat gas will be with us for a while.

This is a game of musical chairs.

I would much rather use up the other guy's hydrocarbon deposits before we use ours.

On fracking for NG: haha has sniffed the truth. Fracked wells do not last long. Wells have to be fracked all the time. The good news (depending on your point of view) is that there is a LOT of NG in such deposits.

With respect to fracking contaminating drinking water aquifers: I think it does, no matter what the research says. Having said that, I saw the sophomoric show on how evil fracking was. Yawn. Yes, I believe it contaminates well water. When that is a problem for farming, I will be concerned. For people who drilled a well for drinking water, who ever guaranteed them good water? Treatment equipment is available. IMHO, NG producers may have to get used to the idea that they should provide such equipment to aggrieved well users, so I am not on the side of the devil completely.

Disclosure: I have worked in the engineering business for companies that make money on fracked gas. Learned a lot. Got paid a lot, too, but not enough to be a shill. I have bought some pipeline company shares. I would not buy shares in NG producers right now. Am ambivalent about XOM for that reason.

 

[easysurfer]

Maybe. I think that they are running the risk of losing their leadership in the hybrid market down the road.

Remember, the Prius had miniscule sales at first as well. By allowing others to come to market in this area first, I think Toyota may be sacrificing their first mover advantage.

A plug-in hybrid that doesn't allow for a normal commute doesn't serve much purpose in my mind.

Toyota is counting on the upcoming Prius C as their gateway hybrid. The audience for younger and those who ordinarily would not buy a hybrid because of price.

 

[Alan]

Gas prices won't affect us much. We've had a Prius since Summer 2007 while you cpuld still get them on sale, and with a government rebate of $3k. We weren't looking for a hybrid, but were looking for a small lift-back that you could fit 2 adult bikes into. The Prius was the best price at that time for us.

We've RE'ed since then, to a place where we cycle a lot, and the main journeys we do in our car are distances of less than 6 miles. (major shopping, and when the weather is too inclement to cycle to the gym)

We have the oil changed once a year, whether it needs it or not. End of April we have a 3,500 mile road trip planned, so the 7,500 miles between oil changes may mean we get the oil change done before 12 months is up.

 

[TromboneAl]

The conventional wisdom is that gas prices rise in the summer. From my memory of the news, this has not been the case in the last few years. Is that correct?

 

[Midpack]

The conventional wisdom is that gas prices rise in the summer. From my memory of the news, this has not been the case in the last few years. Is that correct?

Yes, gas prices fell last summer. US gasoline prices generally rise in summer due to increased demand (northern hemisphere), more expensive US summer formulations and refinery turnarounds (planned maintenance) are more likely in summer. But other factors influence gas/oil prices including supply/geopolitical issues, natural disasters/weather, currency exchange rates, inventories and commodity speculators. So it's not a lock that summer prices are higher, but the stars may be aligned for higher this summer. And where US demand had a large influence in the past, global demand is increasingly influential (ie, US consumption is down while China & India are up).

 

[ERD50]

I would really like to have a plug-in hybrid with about 30 miles of battery capacity, at a relatively reasonable price. ...

Don't hold your breath. I expect 'relatively reasonable prices' to be a ways off yet. Maybe never, depending on what progress they make in ICE and other alternatives. Those are not standing still.

I'm suprised at how little progress Toyota has made in this area, considering how far ahead they were a few years ago.

As I mention in just about every EV thread I see - the progress is NOT about any car company. They are totally dependent upon battery price/performance improvements. Battery technology is being pushed along by many, many fronts (cell phones, laptops, UPSs, military, and a zillion other portable devices). EVs won't push battery technology, battery technology will push EVs (if they hit a decent price point).

My big concern is the price of diesel fuel. I am retiring to the life of a hobby farmer and I use alot of diesel fuel.
CJ

On a small scale, making your own bio-diesel might be practical and economical. It won't solve any energy crisis, as there isn't enough veggie oil to go around. But for personal use, it's a consideration. Google bio-diesel home.

-ERD50

 

[HFWR]

On a small scale, making your own bio-diesel might be practical and economical. It won't solve any energy crisis, as there isn't enough veggie oil to go around. But for personal use, it's a consideration. Google bio-diesel home.

-ERD50

Depending on what sort of hobby farm, methane might also be an alternative.

 

[Hamlet]

I think the C is likely to do better than their plug in model. That's a very reasonably priced vehicle.

I don't think that an extra $10k for 13 miles of EV range is going to sell well.

The tax credits make the Volt a better deal than the Prius 2012 plug in, IMO, although I think both are still too expensive to get excited about.

Toyota is counting on the upcoming Prius C as their gateway hybrid. The audience for younger and those who ordinarily would not buy a hybrid because of price.

 

[Nuiloa]

After many years of in-depth analysis, I am firmly convinced that the cost of anything automotive, at least in Canada, is directly linked to my bank account.

The proof of this was when I purchased a Hyundai Pony (motto: if this were a real horse, I'd shoot it). If I put $250 in the bank on payday, the car would immediately require emergency repairs of ~$250. This happened too often for it to be a coincidence.

I bought a new car.... same issues.

So it comes as no surprise that the year I purchase a motorhome and plan to drive through the US, the price of US gas - which has traditionally been about half the cost of Canadian gas - leaps in price to match ours.

I would sacrifice the trip if I thought it would bring gas prices down but, as we all know, prices never go down (walmart excepted)

Seriously, though - I camp in a provincial park in Ontario every summer. For the past 10 years, it has been next to impossible to reserve a lot - the park has been full to capacity. You have to reserve 5 months in advance to guarantee a spot. I heard a lot of people complaining about the cost of gas last year. I guess it came to roost: this year - the park is empty. In one of the more popular areas, only 6 out of 65 campsites have been reserved! It's very strange.

 

[haha]

Well, just because the US is big doesn't mean you have to drive across the whole thing for your grocery run. There's no reason an American's drive to work, friends, and the store couldn't be the same or less than a New Zealander's. It's just a matter of where you decide to make your home... 10 miles from everything, or right in, or on the edge, of town.

You may be forgetting that many people cannot live close to work, at least not without giving up homeownership and moving to a rental. Other people have shifting jobs or job sites. Here in Puget Sound Boeing has major plants in Renton and in Everett. Though people are not frequently shifted to one or the other plant, sometime it comes down to do you want your job or not? And if you do, there are many reasons, some perhaps more compelling than others, to continue in the old homestead and commute to work. Same with software, there is a real shift of software employment to the downtown Seattle area going on, with Amazon's big move to a new campus right downtown at South Lake Union, the area that Paul Allen has been promoting and developing.

I have two sons who work east of Lake Washington, but live in Seattle. One chose that because he prefers Seattle, but the other had already worked in several westside software shops, already owned a house, so he moved job but stayed in his home. Plenty similar examples. Same situation when one spouse has a career on one side of the Lake, and the other spouse on the opposite side. Where are they supposed to live?

Ha

 

[haha]

I like the idea of living in cities or with easy access to cities but there are already burbs which are at the terminus of subway or rail lines into big cities where prices are already high.

So the market has already figured it out.

If the neighborhoods accessible by RT are not horrible, they will experience price markups as soon as the coming of rail is definite. The only exception I know of, and sooner or later it will be fixed, is stops along Link light rail in the Seattle area south through the Rainier Valley. It is ugly, and by Seattle standards it is dangerous. But it is happening. You should see all the young mothers pushing strollers in Columbia City, which seems to be accepted faster than other Rainier Vally locations. Once a light rail link to Bellevue/Redmond is established, the Rainer Valley will bloom. Unfortunately, that is along way off, too long for me to try to speculate on. Once these migrations are well established, they are hard to stop. In Cincinnati the area north of the courthouse is called Over the Rhine, after the early German settlements there. It has been a rough neighborhood since WW2. Maybe 10 years or so ago or a little more Grammer's German Restaurant closed dues to neighborhood violence and robberies.It first opened in the 19th century and had operated continuously except for some years during WW1 when there were very strong anti-German feelings. Then in 2001 Over the Rhine experienced days of violent rioting. Did that stop ongoing gentrification? No way; last year OTR was voted Cincinnati's Best Neighborhood! "Over-the-Rhine was voted best Cincinnati neighborhood in CityBeat's Best of Cincinnati 2011."


Gentrification in the 21st century is manifest destiny; it can only be delayed, not stopped, by anything other than a future of cheap fuel which is not going to happen.

Years ago I debated the crude price question with people on this board who thought high prices were speculation only, or oil company manipulation, or due to other ideas that turned out to be wrong. Short term, anything can happen. Long term, it's like glacial melting. If it's getting warmer, glaciers will melt. And if people with money and ability want to live centrally, sooner or later they will. It takes a while for attitudes to adjust and for formerly scary ideas to first become accepted and then become fashionable. That is why first movers into these situations tend to be young unmarried people, gays, artists and others who often do not have wives or children to consider and perhaps to contend with.

Not long after it will be raining those high tech $1000 strollers, and thin young women in runing shoes and spandex pushing them. And dive bars will have been replaced by Pilates Studios.

Ha

 

[Mulligan]

If the neighborhoods accessible by RT are not horrible, they will experience price markups as soon as the coming of rail is definite. The only exception I know of, and sooner or later it will be fixed, is stops along Link light rail in the Seattle area south through the Rainier Valley. It is ugly, and by Seattle standards it is dangerous. But it is happening. You should see all the young mothers pushing strollers in Columbia City, which seems to be accepted faster than other Rainier Vally locations. Once a light rail link to Bellevue/Redmond is established, the Rainer Valley will bloom. Unfortunately, that is along way off, too long for me to try to speculate on. Once these migrations are well established, they are hard to stop. In Cincinnati the area north of the courthouse is called Over the Rhine, after the early German settlements there. It has been a rough neighborhood since WW2. Maybe 10 years or so or a little more Grammer's German Restaurant closed, because there was so much street violence that patrons were afraid to come and because they had been robbed a few times. Then in 2001 Over the Rhine experienced days of violent rioting. Did that stop ongoing gentrification? No way; last year OTR was voted Cincinnati's Best Neighborhood! "Over-the-Rhine was voted best Cincinnati neighborhood in CityBeat's Best of Cincinnati 2011."

Gentrification in the 21st century is manifest destiny; it can only be delayed, not stopped, by anything other than a future of cheap fuel which is not going to happen.

Years ago I debated the crude price question with people on this board who thought high prices were speculation only, or oil company manipulation, or due to other ideas that turned out to be wrong. Short term, anything can happen. Long term, it's like glacial melting. If it's getting warmer, glaciers will melt. And if people with money and ability want to live centrally, sooner or later they will. It takes a while for attitudes to adjust and for formerly scary ideas to first become accepted and then become fashionable. That is why first movers into these situations tend to be young unmarried people, gays, artists and others who often do not have wives or children to consider and perhaps to contend with.

Not long after it will be raining those high tech $1000 strollers, and thin young women in runing shoes and spandex pushing them. And dive bars will have been replaced by Pilates Studios.

Ha

Ha, I believe your thesis overall, to be very sound. The two ton elephant in the room, however is,( especially many midwest cities) trying to repopulate the inner city with their current school systems. Some are just hideous and somewhat dangerous, thus making the young couples you referred to as having to make the decision to " buck up" for expensive private schools or move toward the 'burbs. Many cities see young people flock to downtown, only to leave when nesting time occurs.

 

[haha]

Ha, I believe your thesis overall, to be very sound. The two ton elephant in the room, however is,( especially many midwest cities) trying to repopulate the inner city with their current school systems. Some are just hideous and somewhat dangerous, thus making the young couples you referred to as having to make the decision to " buck up" for expensive private schools or move toward the 'burbs. Many cities see young people flock to downtown, only to leave when nesting time occurs.

That has been true for sure. There is a flowering of private schools right in my neighborhood. You should see the trains of SUVs picking up the kiddies in the afternoon. Also Catholic schools are thriving, even as the parishes may struggle.

As I see it, the US can committ mass suicide if it persists as before in a rapidly changing world. Alternatively it can put some things back on the table that have long been PCd away.

I have heard at parties and such with younger people that some of the grade schools have newly active PTAs and parents' groups who are highly involved and working hard to change public schools wherever it is important to them.

 

[explanade]

Isn't the Tesla suppose to have 200 mile range? Even if that number is hyped, it's gotta be more than enough for most everyday driving?

Of course, it's stupidly expensive as all EVs are.

 

[powerplay]

Isn't the Tesla suppose to have 200 mile range? Even if that number is hyped, it's gotta be more than enough for most everyday driving?

Of course, it's stupidly expensive as all EVs are.

I think the 200 mile range claimed is possible. Several years ago I saw a Tesla at the Portland auto show. It was privately owned and the owner drove it from Seattle to Portland for the show (about 180 miles). I thought that was impressive although the price of the car was way outta range.

 

[easysurfer]

Yeah...I think if you can afford a Telsa, than you don't need to save $ on gas.

 

[explanade]

It's for rich greensters.

 

[Nords]

Isn't the Tesla suppose to have 200 mile range? Even if that number is hyped, it's gotta be more than enough for most everyday driving?
Of course, it's stupidly expensive as all EVs are.

Buying a Tesla to be green is like buying a Hummer because you might occasionally go off-road driving.

I'm sure people thought Ford was nuts for coming out with his gas engines at a time when electric vehicles were cheap & plentiful, and nobody wanted to buy such a stinky machine. Until, that is, volume production could undercut the competition. EVs will get there the same way every other consumer product has.

The expense calculations work out a lot better when you're driving less than 80 miles/day, or when you have a charging station at your destination... and when you have a photovoltaic array on your house. So "stupidly expensive" might be a slight generalization. When Leafs & Volts start showing up on Craigslist at about 50% of retail, then we'll be more interested. Not so much for a Tesla.

 

[Zathras]

The Tesla roadster has a maximum range of 240.
And yes, it is very expensive, you need to be very fortunate, and dedicated to afford one. Although the cost is as much due to the performance of the car as the fact it is an EV.
As for EV costs, the Leaf is 24k (after rebate), 80 mile range.
The Volt (semi EV), leases for ~250/month.

The Model S is starting at 50k (160 mile range). It is competing with other luxury sedans and stacks up pretty well if you ask me.

While a Mercedes competing car is not going to single handedly solve our gasoline issue, it will be a step in the right direction. And continue showing the other BIG car companies that it is possible.

Hopefully we will get more economical alternative fuel cars (natural gas, EVs, etc) such that our economy will be less directly affected by gas prices. Although, obviously we will still have the indirect cost increases of everything shipped by diesel truck. So we won't completely eliminate damage to our economy, just lessen the impact.

 

[glippy]

From what I understand, if you wanted a gas-powered high-end sports car that had the same performance as a Tesla, you'd be paying about the same price.

Not that I'm too well versed on $100k cars.