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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 11:26 AM   #21
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

if the reported CPI is so far off the mark, wouldn't you expect that the bond market would recognize that? comparison of TIPs to non-TIPs does not suggest to me that the market has a problem with the way CPI is measured.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 11:48 AM   #22
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n Fuzzy Bunnay
Hey Nords...sams/costco pizzas are $7.95 here or 8.95 if they cook them and you pick them up. Costco maintains the price of a small range of food products like their hotdogs and pizzas as draws to get people into the store to shop. Its a good strategy for them that works well.
Hehe, Sam's club pizzas in N.C. are $7.95 cooked or $6.95 if you bake em at home. Maybe CA has higher inflation?

I must say the Sam's Club Cafe has the worst customer service BY FAR of any company, organization, or entity I have ever dealt with. Including the DMV, Social Security Administration, public health department, etc.

It used to be that 40% of the time I placed a pizza order over the phone, the Cafe wouldn't fulfill the order and I had to reorder when I showed up for pickup. They fixed that problem. Now they don't answer the phone 40% of the time. I recently called at 7:00 pm on a Friday night and was informed they don't make pizzas within an hour of closing time because there's a chance I might not show up. I tried ordering the same pizza from the Sam's a little farther away, but they didn't answer the phone (of course : ). Best pizza but worst customer service. If the pizza wasn't so darn good, I would never go back.

It amazes me when I'm waving money in front of a company's face trying to buy their product and they blow a sale because of stupidity or incompetence. But they know I'll be back.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 11:52 AM   #23
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

I suppose if someone could fully understand the bond market and the CPI calculations, they'd note the discrepancy and rail against it.

Oh wait...Bill Gross did that already, and he knows a little about bonds.

I am quite sure the CPI is 100% accurate for what it measures and how it measures it, as a national average. Given that it doesnt factor in housing costs for homeowners and doesnt really incorporate health care costs, I sort of struggle with it as a measure of inflation.

What I am less certain of is when people decide that CPI is a "real" measure of inflation for even a majority of people.

What I'm pretty dang certain of is that early retirees that frequently live in high cost areas or coastal regions where cost of living is higher than "average" may very well see much higher rates of inflation than the CPI reports.

Failure to recognize that possibility might result in an investor that decides to buy CPI indexed securities and spout on about receiving a "real" return, when in fact their returns might be flat or even negative.

That'd be a real owie in 20-30 years when your money has no buying power left.

A great measure that gets past all of these 'buckets' and spreadsheets is to find someone in your area thats been retired for about ten years or so and ask them how much buying power their CPI indexed social security has lost in that period. Pick someone thats kept (or tried to keep) the same retirement lifestyle for that period.

My dads a good example for me. He lives a similar lifestyle to ten years ago, and in fact our spending patterns arent too far from each other. We both eat decent food, mostly cook at home, dont spend big bucks travelling or buying a lot of lavish items, new car every 5-7 years.

He says his CPI indexed social security payments have lost somewhere in the range of 20-30% of their buying power, which means for someone in our area with our lifestyle, CPI undestates our actual experienced inflation by 2-3% a year uncompounded.

We both do the same thing as a result - change our buying habits, buy from different sources, buy different products, and substitute some of our own time in exchange for eliminating service costs or mitigating the lack of service offerings or weaker service offerings.

That I buy stuff in 5 gallon drums, spend 20 minutes fishing through a heap of clothes to find stuff thats my size, buy cheaper cuts of meat, throw products away when they stop working and I cant get worthwhile technical support and change my own oil doesnt translate into low inflation. It translates into a change in purchasing to mitigate it.

Theres also the issue of invisible inflation. Product and service quality are being reduced steadily in the items I buy. Theres a limit to that and a rubber band effect when it hits bottom.

Anyhow, my agenda in these discussions is to point out that CPI may not come even close to personal or regional rates of inflation and that theres a lot more to it than meets the eye. If people who should know better didnt constantly refer to CPI indexed investments as producing a "real" return, I'd care a lot less.

Whats your agenda C-T? I ask because you start these identical threads about twice a month.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 11:59 AM   #24
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Hehe, Sam's club pizzas in N.C. are $7.95 cooked or $6.95 if you bake em at home. Maybe CA has higher inflation?

I must say the Sam's Club Cafe has the worst customer service BY FAR of any company, organization, or entity I have ever dealt with. Including the DMV, Social Security Administration, public health department, etc.

It used to be that 40% of the time I placed a pizza order over the phone, the Cafe wouldn't fulfill the order and I had to reorder when I showed up for pickup. They fixed that problem. Now they don't answer the phone 40% of the time. I recently called at 7:00 pm on a Friday night and was informed they don't make pizzas within an hour of closing time because there's a chance I might not show up. I tried ordering the same pizza from the Sam's a little farther away, but they didn't answer the phone (of course : ). Best pizza but worst customer service. If the pizza wasn't so darn good, I would never go back.

It amazes me when I'm waving money in front of a company's face trying to buy their product and they blow a sale because of stupidity or incompetence. But they know I'll be back.
Same problem here. You have to see what food is coming out of an oven or just being wrapped up and buy that. The pizza sits under a heat lamp until its oil soaked cardboard and the hotdogs sit in buns wrapped in foil in a steam tray until they disintegrate. Last year when I had a customer service issue regarding a store policy I spent about 3 hours trying to get in touch with the store managers and the corporate customer service people. Nobody really gave a crap...as you point out, the phones werent answered, I got put on eternal hold, I got underlings that couldnt solve the problem. Ended up taking my business to costco for most of the next year...about $12,000 worth.

How is all of that malarky measured by the CPI? How much more does the pizza cost when you waste time making calls, get there and theres no product to pick up or you have to wait 25 minutes before its made?

This by the way is more stupid management stuff. Some sams clubs are well run and their food courts are pretty decent. Costco seems to be far more consistently well managed and the prepared foods are almost always decent.

Costco/sams club are interesting inflation mitigators. You can definitely get good deals there that help hold your costs down. Its possible to buy the same products for 20-30%+ lower prices. But while I enjoy the 'treasure hunt' atmosphere, you cant walk into the place with a shopping list and find everything you need/want. You have to buy what they have, usually in a large quantity, and you have to dig to find shoes/clothes in your size. You usually have to go to another department or grocery store to get everything you need. Sometimes they stop carrying stuff and you have to find another source for it.

How do all these impacts on your time and shopping activities get measured by the CPI? Is your time free? The gasoline? The wear and tear on the car? The aggravation?
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:05 PM   #25
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

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What I'm pretty dang certain of is that early retirees that frequently live in high cost areas or coastal regions where cost of living is higher than "average" may very well see much higher rates of inflation than the CPI reports.
... which is why CPI is available for various geographic areas, and why they have a CPI for the elderly ("over the 18-year period for which data is available, the CPI-E has grown about 15.31% more quickly than the CPI-W")

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Whats your agenda C-T?* I ask because you start these identical threads about twice a month.
C-T just likes to get you all riled up!
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:08 PM   #26
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Jeez, if ER just means that you lose your mind and spend all day bitching about Sam's club pizza and how much everything costs nowadays, maybe it is time to consider going back to work. *Either that, or getting in touch with h0suc.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:12 PM   #27
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n Fuzzy Bunnay
How do all these impacts on your time and shopping activities get measured by the CPI? Is your time free? The gasoline? The wear and tear on the car? The aggravation?
Well, the particular night that Sam's wouldn't sell me pizza, I substituted goods. I gave up on pizza and my mom volunteered to make burgers and dogs for the father's day dinner for which I had planned to provide pizza. It worked just as well after calming down from the Sam's induced stress and trauma.

Re: Sam's/Costco reducing inflation by providing lower prices - There is a lot of merit to that statement. I imagine life with no walmart would consist of paying higher prices at a grocery store for food, then going to Kmart and paying a little more (than walmart) for paper products, cleaning supplies, clothes, electronics, etc. I've found walmart to be an effective inflation fighter.

One thing that irks me about them - if a manufacturer's prices get too high for a particular product, they will stop stocking the item. Arm&Hammer cat litter deodorizing powder is the item, by the way. Time for a trip to yuppieville Target to stock up on a 6 month supply of cat litter deodorizer! :
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:15 PM   #28
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

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Originally Posted by d
... which is why CPI is available for various geographic areas, and why they have a CPI for the elderly ("over the 18-year period for which data is available, the CPI-E has grown about 15.31% more quickly than the CPI-W")
Absolutely no disagreement.

Now look at my agenda again. When tips and ibonds (etc) start paying your local/regional CPI level, or ideally a personal CPI indexed to your personal rate of inflation, I'll get less squirrelly when people talk about "real" rates of return, putting a third, half or all of their money into "inflation indexed" investments that pay no heed to their personal rate of inflation.

Of course, such a thing is implausible and wont happen. So when dealing with "cpi indexed" securities, and when evaluating inflations effects on ones early retirement, it behooves one to really, really understand what their personal rate of inflation is and how it may vary from CPI.

IMO, its not particularly productive at all to submit two posts a month essentially saying "CPI is a great measure of everyones inflation, and anyone who actually measures their own personal rate of inflation will find that CPI is right on target. People who think its not accurate are just bozos who dont actually do any measurement".

For my area and personal rate of inflation, there isnt a CPI indexed security available that would produce a positive or "real" return. Thats a pretty good thing to know.

Quote:
ps: C-T just likes to get you all riled up!
Thats entirely possible. I'd like to think he has better things to do with his time.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:18 PM   #29
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Hey, Target (pronounced "tar-SHEY") is possibly the greatest store on earth! Show proper respect! *

I get a monthly allowance, so the only measure I have for inflation is Burger King at lunch. *Two years ago I could get a Whopper Value Meal for $2.99, now it's $4.59. *
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:22 PM   #30
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Pulling a JG here:

So in conclusion, I'd say the best hedge against inflation is to lock in your housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage, work towards paying off the house by retirement, install a solar pv system in your house, do the maximum to insulate your house and keep down the utilities, and plant a vegitable garden. Hey, if they keep removing the volitale food, housing and energy markets from CPI, you better, too! And I'm less than half joking here!
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:23 PM   #31
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n Fuzzy Bunnay
For my area and personal rate of inflation, there isnt a CPI indexed security available that would produce a positive or "real" return. Thats a pretty good thing to know.
I may have a solution to your problem. Let me introduce you to some I-banking buddies who could easily develop some inflation indexed security to track CPI-California and sell it to you and your fellow statesmen (and eat you alive with fees!!!!). They have a financial product for everything else.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:26 PM   #32
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

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Originally Posted by Laurence
I get a monthly allowance, so the only measure I have for inflation is Burger King at lunch. Two years ago I could get a Whopper Value Meal for $2.99, now it's $4.59.
It seems like you can't get a Combo Meal at any fast food place now for much under $5. I wonder if the "$2.99 Whopper Value meal" you used to get was a special, as in all the other combo meals were $4-5. I know they used to have big macs and whoppers all the time on "2 for $2" specials. Now it's more like a lower cost sandwich on the $1 value menu, or 2 for $3 of something.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:29 PM   #33
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

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it behooves one to really, really understand what their personal rate of inflation is and how it may vary from CPI
it is also advisable to consider the after-tax return
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:32 PM   #34
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Macdonalds often has the "two for two/three bucks" deals, but they dont put them on the menu and only occasionally put a sign up in the window. Ask them if they have it, they usually come up with something. The one near me sells me two sausage mcmuffins for two bucks whenever I ask. Havent asked about any big mac deals because they're too pathetic to buy. Hardly any meat in them and macdonalds beef patties are full of gristle. Quality and quantity have hit bottom, so the price has gone up.

Theres that rubber band thing I was talking about.

I usually just throw a soda in the car to avoid paying them $1.50 for a cup of sugar water, and just order a $1.29 big cheeseburger at jack in the box. Its about the size of a macdonalds quarter pounder.

Laurence...I'll bet that BK burgers gotten smaller as well over time. I stopped eating at BK years ago because the food just got too small and too expensive. And the quality stunk. Carls and JITB have way better food.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:36 PM   #35
 
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n Fuzzy Bunnay

Whats your agenda C-T? I ask because you start these identical threads about twice a month.
I didn't start this thread. And, I have started only about 3 threads on inflation since I've been posting here in the last 3 years.

This is my point about anecdotal evidence - highly exaggerated!
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:36 PM   #36
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Oh, I've gotten totally snobbish for lunch (when I don't pack), I should have my LBYM badge revoked. *I go to this place called "Stir Fresh" near work once a week. *It's a Mongolian BBQ where you pack all the food you can into a bowl and they cook it in front of you w/lots of spices. *If you do it right, you can get two meals out of it, and they run coupons every week that get you 50% of the second meal, or even buy one get one free. *Go with a coworker, split the bill, ~$9 each. *Extravegant, but it's well worth it to get through Mondays, and if it makes it to dinner, that's really $4.50 a meal.
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:44 PM   #37
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Oh yeahhh...the old mongolian barbecue. When I was still working we went to one that wasnt 'all you can eat' and we saw guys piling stuff up a foot over the top of the bowl, pounding it down with their fists to get it to fit. Funny stuff.

We've got three huge "all you can eat asian buffet" places in town that have everything from fried chicken and pizza to sushi, along with all you can eat mongolian bbq. They're all in such tight competition that they're issuing coupons and taking each others coupons. Took five adults, a 5 and 7 year old, and Gabe to one last week for $34 plus tip. Gabes favorite place to eat...

Eventually one or two of them will go out of business due to the competitive pressures. Two of them already dumbed down their offerings in quantity and quality so far I dont go there anymore, so I think I know which ones gonna "win".
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 12:55 PM   #38
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I didn't start this thread. And, I have started only about 3 threads on inflation since I've been posting here in the last 3 years.

This is my point about anecdotal evidence - highly exaggerated!
Seems a lot higher.

So whats your agenda in this? That CPI equals inflation for almost everyone and can be trusted as a true measure of broad based inflation for an early retiree, and that CPI indexed investments are good ideas to invest in without actually measuring your personal rate of inflation, because as far as you know, everyone who has done so ended up finding that CPI was right on target?

Everyone else is a buffoon with a bunch of anecdotal evidence that doesnt measure up?
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 01:18 PM   #39
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

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Jeez, if ER just means that you lose your mind and spend all day bitching about Sam's club pizza and how much everything costs nowadays, maybe it is time to consider going back to work. Either that, or getting in touch with h0suc.

I am surprised nobody has pulled out the trump cardů.stories of when a candy bar was a nickle..
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????
Old 06-26-2006, 01:20 PM   #40
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Re: Our Government says WHAT inflation rate????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
*It's a Mongolian BBQ where you pack all the food you can into a bowl and they cook it in front of you w/lots of spices. *
Ah the memories... I remember when I started working in the Silicon Valley and the Mongolian BBQ place in San Mateo was the popular lunch spot. *There was a whole art to building a second "wall" of cucumber slices to enlarge the size of your bowl and get more food. * And I think the price (back in the early 90's) was not much more than $4.50 for all you could eat.

At least here in the Silicon Valley, the real reason for inflation is upscaling. *That Mongolian BBQ place closed long ago, and there's a much fancier restaurant in it's place where you can't get lunch for less than $12.

At the grocery store, I do see higher prices on some items, but I notice it's almost always the specialty or processed foods, the "high end" foods. *

It seems to me this "upscaling" is why many people are spending more. *Just a decade ago, there were hardly any Starbucks, and Whole Foods was rare and geared towards health foods. *
Not to mention that hardly anyone had cell phones, computers, internet service, SUVs, or side air bags 10 years ago. *

For basic foods, I found when the grocery stores switched over from coupons to "club cards" that was a big win for me. *I routinely save 10% on my grocery bill using a club card. *Because I'm slightly concerned about the privacy issues, I just signed up for the card using a false name.

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