Anybody else ready to give in???

[VaCollector]

Anybody else ready to go ALL IN

Is anybody else feeling the urge to spend your cash reserves??

Crazy....maybe so.....or (just maybe) this could be one of those "once in a lifetime" opportunites that we've all heard about

.....real estate (at least some) bargains galore....as evidenced in other threads, Florida seems to be ON SALE!!

.....more than several GREAT stocks at bargain basement pricing....especially those financials that everyone is running away from as fast as they possibly can!!

Now for those that haven't kept up with my [-]whining crying bellyaching WORRYING[/-] financial wisdom, I am the 3rd generation in my family to have benefited from the ownership of bank stock - BAC in particular....and while I have not owned it all since it's original purchase, I have paid attention to its pricing (value) rise and fall and the benefits derived from it....brainwashed a little maybe by the 30+ years of almost continual upward growth and the wealth created....

So....I have seen the past.....and have been taught to buy when everyone else is selling......

But my thoughts are also tempered by the wisdom of years and knowing that what appears to be "too good to be true"....usually is!!

Now....BAC at $18.52/share......prices not seen since 1996.....

I'm so tempted to go ALL IN that it's scary!!

HELP!....go ahead....talk me out of it ....or into it....I'm all ears.....and I have an AM buy order ready for a few thousand more shares.....'cause this stuff CAN'T keep going down....UGH....but that's what I've been hearing since last October.....

I'm soooooo confused!!

Where's Spock's logic when you need it!!?? ....or maybe all of this is just illogical!!??

 

[Purron]

Hey VA,

I know BAC seems like a real bargin but many other equities are down right now too. Instead of focusing on this one stock I would suggest pulling back a bit and looking at the big picture prior to investing. There are lots of opportunites during this "blue light special" and BAC is just one of thousands of investments to consider.

 

[samclem]

I wonder if all the price drops will be reflected in the holdings of MFs/ETFs many of us already own. Will indexes oriented toward value react quickly enough to load up on the newly-created beaten-down value stocks? Will stodgy old Windsor II load up the plate with new bargains?

 

[Milton]

I'm so tempted to go ALL IN that it's scary!!
I'm soooooo confused!!

Well, given your admitted confusion, I wouldn't suggest plunging in and gambling everything on a rebound. Especially if you are close to retirement, or already retired.

Of course, if you are young then perhaps you may as well yield to temptation and 'put it all on number 18' (BAC). Even if things go horribly wrong, the odds are that time will eventually bail you out.

 

[Rambler]

I went on a shopping spree yesterday...in the morning, when the market was up...got some BAC, ED, SNY, and a few others. Spent a bundle (over a year of living expenses), now I'm wishing I would have waited a day, but I have no doubt it will go back up...eventually. I'm hoping to FIRE in a year or two so, I'm hoping it will go back up nicely by then, and if history repeats itself, it will. On the other hand, I have a nice highly paid j*b, and I can stick it out a little longer, and will keep DCAing into it as and if we go lower. It is depressing to watch it go down, but so long as divvies are not cut too much, the more I put in now, the higher my dividend income will be in a couple/three years. I know it sounds like timing the market to do this, but I always try to hold back a bit, in case things go lower and I can get better bargains.

R

 

[Dawg52]

I originally read the title of the thread as 'Anybody else ready to give in?' Shows you how I'm thinking.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Whats weird. So did I. Must be from all the doom and gloom threads lately..

No we arent crazy it really does say that..

 

[VaCollector]

Whats weird. So did I. Must be from all the doom and gloom threads lately..

No we arent crazy it really does say that..

I tried to edit it - but it was (evidently) too late??

Your NOT crazy, but I can't type worth poop!

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Heres the problem. If people are willing to buy in thinking its bargain time, that means we havent actually reached the point of capitulation when nobody wants to own equities.

Which means it'll go down further until that happens.

Unless of course it doesnt.

 

[Nords]

Heres the problem. If people are willing to buy in thinking its bargain time, that means we havent actually reached the point of capitulation when nobody wants to own equities.
Which means it'll go down further until that happens.
Unless of course it doesnt.

I think even Jim Cramer must be jealous of the depth & breadth of the market analysis we're seeing here this month... let alone on the closed threads...

 

[unclemick]

Just think - what would happen if the Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement would say if they could post.

I wonder if they emit a different sounding hum when we hit bottom and turn the corner?

You know sorta like the Olympia Band at a Jazz funeral - going to the graveyard vs coming back.

I sure ain't going back to work so's I can get more money to buy more stock bargins. Sheesh - ya gotta draw the line somewhere!

heh heh heh - I too own some BAC - oh the temptation!

 

[Marquette]

Just think - what would happen if the Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement would say if they could post.

We gave a coworker a crash course in AA and investing basics and then showed him some fund options at Vanguard. His quote was "cool, you mean some computers will do all of the work for me so I don't need to think about it? That's what I want!"

I don't think it's going to be easy to get him interested in day-trading, even though we have a broker one floor up.

 

[NW-Bound]

Is anybody else feeling the urge to spend your cash reserves??

Hi. Two weeks ago, you lamented of losing $450K, having nothing left to buy.

Obviously, that was not true. You have discovered another lump under your mattress. I am happy for you. My mattress is quite lumpy right now. Won't put it all on number 18 though. Don't even know when, but I will sprinkle it around.

 

[VaCollector]

Hi. Two weeks ago, you lamented of losing $450K, having nothing left to buy.

Obviously, that was not true. You have discovered another lump under your mattress. I am happy for you. My mattress is quite lumpy right now. Won't put it all on number 18 though. Don't even know when, but I will sprinkle it around.

....and today I am down in excess of $500K and my situation has not changed...... in a normal environment, I would have no $$$ left to invest (as my only cash reserves are those that I am living off of) and would NEVER even consider putting those funds to work in the stock market....until now.....

......I just never thought that I would see prices like this (for BAC in particular) ever again in my lifetime....I would have thought them to be history!

....hence my inclination to go all in

 

[Hal3]

The past and current price is irrelevant to your decision. Only the future price matters. So, you would like to know how much exposure they have to non-performing and overvalued mortgages. I don't know to what extent that is knowable. I see that insider Charles Gifford has been a big seller.

My big concern about the economy is that there may be a lot of propping up until Bush leaves office so that the next guy will have to deal with the situation.

Would I buy any stock now? No. Would I buy any bank stock now? No.

And that, ladies and gentleman, is a definitive BUY signal for everyone else.

 

[Dawg52]

....and today I am down in excess of $500K and my situation has not changed...... in a normal environment, I would have no $$$ left to invest (as my only cash reserves are those that I am living off of) and would NEVER even consider putting those funds to work in the stock market....until now.....

......I just never thought that I would see prices like this (for BAC in particular) ever again in my lifetime....I would have thought them to be history!

....hence my inclination to go all in

Wow, down 1/2 a mil. But if I had a 5 million portfolio, I guess I would be down that much too. Wish I had that kind of loss.

 

[NW-Bound]

......I just never thought that I would see prices like this (for BAC in particular) ever again in my lifetime....I would have thought them to be history!

....hence my inclination to go all in

It appears you are a follower of financial stocks, which I am not. Being an engineer, I have been a follower of electronic makers, semiconductor makers of all kinds. In the 2000-2002 crash, I had to restraint myself from going ALL IN. It is far better to wait until the smoke clears. Please be careful!

PS - In hindsight, I missed the true bottom. But when I got back to the buying mode, I discovered the world does not "feed" on just silicon chips. It also needs potato chips, i.e. all kinds of staples, energy etc..., etc... So, I rode out of the stock crash not on the tailcoat of semiconductors, but on the shoulders of oil drillers, agriculture, fertilizers, etc... What the next sector to rise out of this mess, I don't know and am still watching.

 

[VaCollector]

Wow, down 1/2 a mil. But if I had a 5 million portfolio, I guess I would be down that much too. Wish I had that kind of loss.

trust me....you don't REALLY want it.....even with a $5 mil portfolio.....

....and FYI.....I RE'd in May 07 with $1.4 mil to invest.....at that rate, it should only take me a couple more years to lose it all

 

[NW-Bound]

trust me....you don't REALLY want it.....even with a $5 mil portfolio.....

....and FYI.....I RE'd in May 07 with $1.4 mil to invest.....at that rate, it should only take me a couple more years to lose it all

So, percentage wise, your situation ain't bad. You've got no right to complain.

I lost 50% from top of market in 2000 till the bottom in 2002. I recovered all of it, then have some nice nice gains. The key: I do not repeat old mistakes, I try to find new ones

 

[VaCollector]

So, percentage wise, your situation ain't bad. You've got no right to complain.

I lost 50% from top of market in 2000 till the bottom in 2002. I recovered all of it, then have some nice nice gains. The key: I do not repeat old mistakes, I try to find new ones

Thanks for at least trying to make me feel better

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks for at least trying to make me feel better

You are welcome. That's a fellow forum member's for.

I just read some of your past posts. Yes, indeed, you are enamored with financial stocks, being employed in that industry. Just like me and my semis and telecoms stocks in the bull market of 1995-2000. But I repented, and read, and read. Particularly Malkiel, which I read again and again.

The case I am seeing with financial stocks is this. The price won't go to zero, same as most of my past semiconductor stocks. These are real companies, with brick-n-mortar buildings, factories, not like some ridiculuous dotcoms. BUT, if their reputations have been damaged, and they have lost the trust of the investors, they may have a tough time. Sure, in the short term, there will be bargain hunters like yourself who buy on dip, then get out on some bounces. Since I do no short-term trades, I do not even look at financials right now.

 

[al_bundy]

the difference is that you can't just replace all your Intel chips overnight, but you can clear out all your accounts from Lehman or another bank very fast.

and they have a lot of debt they took out to buy all their assets. if the assets don't perform they still have to pay the entire debt.

 

[NW-Bound]

the difference is that you can't just replace all your Intel chips overnight, but you can clear out all your accounts from Lehman or another bank very fast.

and they have a lot of debt they took out to buy all their assets. if the assets don't perform they still have to pay the entire debt.

Thank you for pointing out the difference. Like I said, I paid no attention to financials, other than seeing that even veteran value mutual fund managers got blindsided too.

 

[Nords]

The case I am seeing with financial stocks is this. The price won't go to zero, same as most of my past semiconductor stocks. These are real companies, with brick-n-mortar buildings, factories, not like some ridiculuous dotcoms. BUT, if their reputations have been damaged, and they have lost the trust of the investors, they may have a tough time.

I think the reason that people have been investing in financials is pretty ingenuous*: that's where the money is.

And that's probably among the first places the money will come back to.

But if it doesn't, then that's what asset allocation & rebalancing are all about...


*No, I really did spell that correctly.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, you spell ingenuous correctly, but I have to look it up. Without the hint, one would have thought otherwise.

Sure, it's fun to take a little gamble sometimes. But why empty all your rounds in one burst? I like to joke around with my friends: "How many shots have you left?", after knowing they have done some bargain hunting, trying to "catch the falling knife".

I like to picture a foot soldier going into battle. Don't you want to conserve your rounds, not firing from the hip, but waiting for the best opportunity? You still miss often, but your chance is much improved. Seems to work for me so far.

By the way, I forgot that the REASON I have never followed financials was that my wife worked for one. She has plenty in her 401k, which I liquidated earlier this year. I did a right thing once in a while.