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Old 07-07-2009, 09:52 AM   #121
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Lots of headwinds, but the earnings comps will start getting easy, especially in 3Q. Maybe my crystal ball needs a fractal antenna...
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Old 07-07-2009, 02:41 PM   #122
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I knew I should have sold everything as soon as people were gushing about second quarter performance.
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Old 07-07-2009, 02:53 PM   #123
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Never fails, does it? It is a great contrarian indicator. The problem is that people will now rejoice silently. Would that still hurt?
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Old 07-07-2009, 02:54 PM   #124
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Good job on the oil Ziggy.
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Old 07-07-2009, 03:24 PM   #125
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Full auto - balanced index(with a few Norwegian widow stocks on the side) - staying the course until football season.

No crystal ball but if the Saint's start looking good - I may start shifting a few deck chairs on the Titanic.

I still have my yucky financials and few other dividend stocks which have crashed and burned.

heh heh heh - we'll be out of this in another 5 to 10 years - you'll see . Meanwhile I have to stay retired and spend at least my SEC yield cause I'm not getting any younger.
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Old 07-07-2009, 03:38 PM   #126
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I still have my yucky financials and few other dividend stocks which have crashed and burned.
I hope my stocks are merely singed at the edge but not burnt to a crisp.

What does one do with ashes?

PS. Ok, Ok, I'll admit that some of them got more than singed.

But I am holding them still. Darn, only if I have steady income like when I was still working. So many cheap stock...
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Old 07-07-2009, 04:45 PM   #127
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What does one do with ashes?
You spread those ashes on your 1040 every year and watch more money magically appear in your refund check!

Anybody want to buy some 10 year old lucent ashes? I'll sell it to you for 2% of what I bought them for...
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Old 07-07-2009, 07:50 PM   #128
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Well, Lucent merged with Alcatel and the combined company is still trading. So, it is technically not ashes at $2.10/share. I got out last year at $6.13. Don't want to look up how much I paid.

No, I am talking about bankrupcy. Exactly $0.00! And having bought in brokerage accounts, I do not even have the stock certificates to keep as "souvernirs". The like of Calpine, Global Crossing, Copper Mountain, Federal Mogul, etc... Got plenty of my own.
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Old 07-08-2009, 06:36 AM   #129
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heh heh heh - we'll be out of this in another 5 to 10 years - you'll see .
As in dead? Time to get the head banging going again.
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Old 07-08-2009, 09:59 AM   #130
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Well, Lucent merged with Alcatel and the combined company is still trading. So, it is technically not ashes at $2.10/share. I got out last year at $6.13. Don't want to look up how much I paid.

No, I am talking about bankrupcy. Exactly $0.00! And having bought in brokerage accounts, I do not even have the stock certificates to keep as "souvernirs". The like of Calpine, Global Crossing, Copper Mountain, Federal Mogul, etc... Got plenty of my own.
I just realized I do still have 17 shares of ALU worth around $36. Cost basis is close to $5000. After a sales commission, I would net $25. So I'll round down to zero and call those ashes! These ashes are worth a lot as tax write offs to either offset ordinary income up to $3000 a year, or to offset capital gains. Sometimes these things linger at fractions of cents per share. You can either sell them (if there is still an active market) or call up your broker and have them declared worthless and then record them as a loss on that year's taxes.
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Old 07-08-2009, 10:16 AM   #131
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I have "harvested" all of them for tax losses since the 2000-2003 stock meltdown. Have used up all the cap losses when rebalancing in 2007 and offset cap gains. Then, have just generated a ton of cap loss again.

I also have lots of ashes in IRA (roll-over 401k). No tax write-offs there.
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Old 07-08-2009, 07:26 PM   #132
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Lots of headwinds, but the earnings comps will start getting easy, especially in 3Q. Maybe my crystal ball needs a fractal antenna...
The long-awaited quarterly report from Alcoa was released after market close today to kick-off the earning season. Still losing money, but both top and bottom lines were better than expectations. Stock up in after-hour trading. Will see if the market reacts positively tomorrow. Buy, buy, buy...

By the way, I just learned that China's current consumption is 35% of the aluminum production of the world.
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Old 07-10-2009, 12:11 PM   #133
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there are supposed to be another big wave of foreclosures starting soon
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Old 07-10-2009, 12:35 PM   #134
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there are supposed to be another big wave of foreclosures starting soon
The ugliest thing about deleveraging is that it feeds on itself as long as there are leveraged assets whose value won't stop falling. It's a snowball rolling down hill with the bottom of the hill nowhere to be seen.
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Old 07-19-2009, 10:51 AM   #135
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So, how 'bout an update on this "market's headed down" prediction. Seems to me the forecast has missed twice - so I'm looking forward to the latest outlook.
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Old 07-19-2009, 11:22 AM   #136
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So, how 'bout an update on this "market's headed down" prediction. Seems to me the forecast has missed twice - so I'm looking forward to the latest outlook.
Either that forecast will be drastically right or drastically wrong at this point. The best part of maintaining a "this market is headed down" prediction is that you can't be proven wrong. It could always drop tomorrow or next month or next year and prove you right. Do we call the drop during june/july a validation of the prediction, or just a lull in the march upwards?
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Old 07-19-2009, 11:55 AM   #137
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there are supposed to be another big wave of foreclosures starting soon
Mortgageresets.jpg2008552307small.jpg
This chart may have been posted before, but if true, is cause for concern.
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Old 07-19-2009, 12:16 PM   #138
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Either that forecast will be drastically right or drastically wrong at this point. The best part of maintaining a "this market is headed down" prediction is that you can't be proven wrong. It could always drop tomorrow or next month or next year and prove you right. Do we call the drop during june/july a validation of the prediction, or just a lull in the march upwards?
Well, to be precise, the most recent forecast was 6/16

Quote:
First, can you repost your graph? It shows through market close yesterday. The S&P closed at 911.97 today.

Second, I see it lasting about 4 weeks.
I guess the accuracy of the forecast depends on the meaning of "about 4 weeks". Heck, maybe he was just a bit late (or early - you choose)
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Old 07-19-2009, 12:49 PM   #139
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Well, to be precise, the most recent forecast was 6/16

I guess the accuracy of the forecast depends on the meaning of "about 4 weeks". Heck, maybe he was just a bit late (or early - you choose)
Well, er, ah, these prediction things can be difficult. Just wait - the forecast that the market will go down will eventually be proved right. It just may go up a bunch first.

Still 100% equities...
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Old 07-19-2009, 02:30 PM   #140
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Well, er, ah, these prediction things can be difficult. Just wait - the forecast that the market will go down will eventually be proved right. It just may go up a bunch first.

Still 100% equities...
Oh!! I knew my crystal ball would come in handy. Let me see... looking deep into the swirling depths within my crystal ball, let us divine what the future may hold... Aha! the market is going to go down a little, then mostly up. Maybe. Some people will buy, some people will sell.
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