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07-07-2009, 09:52 AM
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#121
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: DFW
Posts: 6,334
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Lots of headwinds, but the earnings comps will start getting easy, especially in 3Q. Maybe my crystal ball needs a fractal antenna...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
"...but do feel free to assert your duly noted opinion on this subject again without benefit of reference or provision of additional information..."
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07-07-2009, 02:41 PM
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#122
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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I knew I should have sold everything as soon as people were gushing about second quarter performance.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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07-07-2009, 02:53 PM
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#123
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,054
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Never fails, does it? It is a great contrarian indicator. The problem is that people will now rejoice silently. Would that still hurt?
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Couple both 52-year-old, with 2 children in college. DW RE @ 50. No pension, no benefits for either of us. Working part-time for travel money (in good years that is, and for food in lean years!).
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07-07-2009, 02:54 PM
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#124
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,404
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Good job on the oil Ziggy. 
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If your gonna be dumb you gotta be tough
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07-07-2009, 03:24 PM
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#125
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: north of Kansas City
Posts: 6,188
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Full auto - balanced index(with a few Norwegian widow stocks on the side) - staying the course until football season.
No crystal ball but if the Saint's start looking good - I may start shifting a few deck chairs on the Titanic.
I still have my yucky financials and few other dividend stocks which have crashed and burned.
heh heh heh - we'll be out of this in another 5 to 10 years - you'll see   . Meanwhile I have to stay retired and spend at least my SEC yield cause I'm not getting any younger.
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07-07-2009, 03:38 PM
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#126
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,054
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick
I still have my yucky financials and few other dividend stocks which have crashed and burned.
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I hope my stocks are merely singed at the edge but not burnt to a crisp. 
What does one do with ashes?
PS. Ok, Ok, I'll admit that some of them got more than singed. 
But I am holding them still. Darn, only if I have steady income like when I was still working. So many cheap stock...
__________________
Couple both 52-year-old, with 2 children in college. DW RE @ 50. No pension, no benefits for either of us. Working part-time for travel money (in good years that is, and for food in lean years!).
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07-07-2009, 04:45 PM
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#127
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
What does one do with ashes?
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You spread those ashes on your 1040 every year and watch more money magically appear in your refund check! 
Anybody want to buy some 10 year old lucent ashes? I'll sell it to you for 2% of what I bought them for...
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07-07-2009, 07:50 PM
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#128
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,054
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Well, Lucent merged with Alcatel and the combined company is still trading. So, it is technically not ashes at $2.10/share. I got out last year at $6.13. Don't want to look up how much I paid.
No, I am talking about bankrupcy. Exactly $0.00! And having bought in brokerage accounts, I do not even have the stock certificates to keep as "souvernirs". The like of Calpine, Global Crossing, Copper Mountain, Federal Mogul, etc... Got plenty of my own.
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Couple both 52-year-old, with 2 children in college. DW RE @ 50. No pension, no benefits for either of us. Working part-time for travel money (in good years that is, and for food in lean years!).
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07-08-2009, 06:36 AM
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#129
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 4,256
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As in dead? Time to get the head banging going again. 
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Full time wuss............
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07-08-2009, 09:59 AM
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#130
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Well, Lucent merged with Alcatel and the combined company is still trading. So, it is technically not ashes at $2.10/share. I got out last year at $6.13. Don't want to look up how much I paid.
No, I am talking about bankrupcy. Exactly $0.00! And having bought in brokerage accounts, I do not even have the stock certificates to keep as "souvernirs". The like of Calpine, Global Crossing, Copper Mountain, Federal Mogul, etc... Got plenty of my own.
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I just realized I do still have 17 shares of ALU worth around $36. Cost basis is close to $5000. After a sales commission, I would net $25. So I'll round down to zero and call those ashes! These ashes are worth a lot as tax write offs to either offset ordinary income up to $3000 a year, or to offset capital gains. Sometimes these things linger at fractions of cents per share. You can either sell them (if there is still an active market) or call up your broker and have them declared worthless and then record them as a loss on that year's taxes.
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07-08-2009, 10:16 AM
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#131
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,054
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I have "harvested" all of them for tax losses since the 2000-2003 stock meltdown. Have used up all the cap losses when rebalancing in 2007 and offset cap gains. Then, have just generated a ton of cap loss again.
I also have lots of ashes in IRA (roll-over 401k). No tax write-offs there.
__________________
Couple both 52-year-old, with 2 children in college. DW RE @ 50. No pension, no benefits for either of us. Working part-time for travel money (in good years that is, and for food in lean years!).
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07-08-2009, 07:26 PM
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#132
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,054
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
Lots of headwinds, but the earnings comps will start getting easy, especially in 3Q. Maybe my crystal ball needs a fractal antenna...
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The long-awaited quarterly report from Alcoa was released after market close today to kick-off the earning season. Still losing money, but both top and bottom lines were better than expectations. Stock up in after-hour trading. Will see if the market reacts positively tomorrow. Buy, buy, buy...
By the way, I just learned that China's current consumption is 35% of the aluminum production of the world.
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07-10-2009, 12:11 PM
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#133
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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there are supposed to be another big wave of foreclosures starting soon
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07-10-2009, 12:35 PM
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#134
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
there are supposed to be another big wave of foreclosures starting soon
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The ugliest thing about deleveraging is that it feeds on itself as long as there are leveraged assets whose value won't stop falling. It's a snowball rolling down hill with the bottom of the hill nowhere to be seen.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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07-19-2009, 10:51 AM
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#135
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 683
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So, how 'bout an update on this "market's headed down" prediction. Seems to me the forecast has missed twice - so I'm looking forward to the latest outlook. 
__________________
Advice from a stranger using a pseudonym with an avatar.
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07-19-2009, 11:22 AM
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#136
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,352
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Either that forecast will be drastically right or drastically wrong at this point. The best part of maintaining a "this market is headed down" prediction is that you can't be proven wrong. It could always drop tomorrow or next month or next year and prove you right. Do we call the drop during june/july a validation of the prediction, or just a lull in the march upwards?
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07-19-2009, 11:55 AM
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#137
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
there are supposed to be another big wave of foreclosures starting soon
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Mortgageresets.jpg2008552307small.jpg
This chart may have been posted before, but if true, is cause for concern.
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07-19-2009, 12:16 PM
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#138
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 683
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
Either that forecast will be drastically right or drastically wrong at this point. The best part of maintaining a "this market is headed down" prediction is that you can't be proven wrong. It could always drop tomorrow or next month or next year and prove you right. Do we call the drop during june/july a validation of the prediction, or just a lull in the march upwards?
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Well, to be precise, the most recent forecast was 6/16
Quote:
First, can you repost your graph? It shows through market close yesterday. The S&P closed at 911.97 today.
Second, I see it lasting about 4 weeks.
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I guess the accuracy of the forecast depends on the meaning of "about 4 weeks". Heck, maybe he was just a bit late (or early - you choose)
__________________
Advice from a stranger using a pseudonym with an avatar.
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07-19-2009, 12:49 PM
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#139
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Well, to be precise, the most recent forecast was 6/16
I guess the accuracy of the forecast depends on the meaning of "about 4 weeks". Heck, maybe he was just a bit late (or early - you choose) |
Well, er, ah, these prediction things can be difficult. Just wait - the forecast that the market will go down will eventually be proved right. It just may go up a bunch first.
Still 100% equities...
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07-19-2009, 02:30 PM
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#140
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 10,395
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
Well, er, ah, these prediction things can be difficult. Just wait - the forecast that the market will go down will eventually be proved right. It just may go up a bunch first.
Still 100% equities... |
Oh!! I knew my crystal ball would come in handy. Let me see... looking deep into the swirling depths within my crystal ball, let us divine what the future may hold... Aha! the market is going to go down a little, then mostly up. Maybe. Some people will buy, some people will sell.
__________________
"Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities." - - H. Melville, 1851
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