Thoughts on TESLA

[aja8888]

Good point! I haven't been paying attention.

I also haven't had a ride in one. Maybe I should spend some time for a test drive for the hell of it.

They actually are doing them well enough that it went under my radar.

The Toyota Rav4 Hybrid is quite nice and the hottest selling Toyota (and hybrid) right now. It was redesigned recently. If my Hyundai Santa Fe ever gave up the ghost, I would go look at one of those Rav4's.

 

[kcowan]

I would like to see an in-depth analysis of the cost of ownership. For example, what will the insurance become when they recommend letting a battery fire totally consume the car because putting it out is too troublesome.

What will the residual value be when Teslas are out of warranty (zero?).

What are the market penetration limits when recharge stations are not available to a significant portion of the potential market (condos where HOAs prohibit charging stations, workplaces that do not provide for recharging)?

 

[JoeWras]

The Toyota Rav4 Hybrid is quite nice and the hottest selling Toyota (and hybrid) right now. It was redesigned recently. If my Hyundai Santa Fe ever gave up the ghost, I would go look at one of those Rav4's.

I guess it is a new design. My friend has an ICE Rav4, 2016 model I believe. He's pretty unhappy with it. Not for reliability, but for the design and comfort. Perhaps they addressed those issues.

 

[Chuckanut]

Conversely, hybrids seem to fix that problem. But manufacturers have to make hybrids real cars. My friends and neighbors both got rid of their Prius because of comfort issues. My neighbor said he started to feel every road bump through his spine. So, make it a real car and not some attempt to hypermile through skinny tires and odd cramped shapes.

Ummm.... They are.

Check out a hybrid Camry or a hybrid Avalon. Not all hybrids are Priuses (or is it Prii?)

https://www.toyota.com/avalon/features/mpg/3504/3507/3514

 

[Chuckanut]

I'll be in the market for new car in next few months and I've been trying to decide on what I want. Been noodling if I want hybrid or not so I've been looking. Haven't dug deep and def haven't made up my mind.

One factor in favor of a hybrid, though often not mentioned is the driving range. At 65 MPH on a level highway my older Camry hybrid can go 600+ miles on a tank of gas.

 

[Texas Proud]

By small minority did you mean VW, Daimler and BMW? You might check what they all agreed to in the past week.

No, I mean small minority of people that want to buy an EV...


I think all car companies want to fill that need, but the demand is not that high yet... right now the demand is outpacing the supply, but look at the Volt, mostly an electric with a range extender and it did not get enough interest for them to keep producing.. there was not enough demand...

 

[oneill225]

I would like to see an in-depth analysis of the cost of ownership. For example, what will the insurance become when they recommend letting a battery fire totally consume the car because putting it out is too troublesome.

Insuring a Tesla does not seem to be much different than insuring other cars in the same price range: https://www.insure.com/car-insurance/insurance-rates-by-car.html

What will the residual value be when Teslas are out of warranty (zero?).

Better than most cars if the current trend continues.

What are the market penetration limits when recharge stations are not available to a significant portion of the potential market (condos where HOAs prohibit charging stations, workplaces that do not provide for recharging)?

I see it as a competitive advantage for Condos and HOAs to add charging capability. I think you will see charging capability added in these environments as they are being constructed. Older complexes will then need to add charging capability in order to compete with the newer construction. Money drives change in this country.

 

[eroscott]

No, I mean small minority of people that want to buy an EV...

This varies a lot by country. Gas prices in the USA, our wide parking spots, and open roads across our large highway system keep a lot of gas cars as an *only* option. For many a low maint, fill up each night in your garage, local commuter car (secondary) would be very useful.

We plug in two Chevrolet Volts into 120V outlets in our garage each night for commuters and whatever else (longer drives to sports, Drs, friend, college, etc). Simple. Like plugging in your phone daily as a habit.

I think all car companies want to fill that need, but the demand is not that high yet... right now the demand is outpacing the supply, but look at the Volt, mostly an electric with a range extender and it did not get enough interest for them to keep producing.. there was not enough demand...

GM only wanted to sell *just*enough* of these to get the ZEV credits (CARB states) so they could sell their SUVs and trucks. They stopped it when the $7.5 tax credit stopped. The didn't extend that R&D investment in CUVs or other vehicles. They had since 2010 to do that. They made too much profit with trucks, SUVs, and CUVs. They never advertised. They were not committed. They are being forced now by Tesla and others.

 

[eroscott]

Tesla’s “Start” Program Begins Training the Next Generation of Service Techs
By Chana Perton -March 27, 2019
https://www.cbtnews.com/teslas-start-program-begins-training-the-next-generation-of-service-techs/

It’s not just how we think of driving that Tesla aims to change, but how we think of mechanics and education as well.

As the industry shifts more towards electric vehicles, it’s going to take a new set of skills to service the cars of tomorrow. Instead of getting hands dirty under the hoods of cars, mechanics will be more likely to give their wrists a workout checking code on a laptop. With an increasing focus on software, it’s crucial to have teams trained for the unique needs of electric and autonomous vehicle maintenance.

TeslaThat’s where Tesla comes in. The manufacturer has rolled out a 12-week course that’s being adopted by colleges to teach students the skills they need with the added bonus of job security upon completion. The Start program has already been adopted by six schools, most recently Miami Dade College. It is also currently offered in Washington, California, North Carolina, Detroit and Michigan.
<snip>

 

[JoeWras]

One factor in favor of a hybrid, though often not mentioned is the driving range. At 65 MPH on a level highway my older Camry hybrid can go 600+ miles on a tank of gas.

It is high on my list of positives. The range and recharge time are high on my negatives for pure EV.

 

[bobandsherry]

Better than most cars if the current trend continues.

What are you basing your "trend" on?

Whatever the "trend" is, I doubt the trend will continue. Tesla has been "limited" production, rather short term production and therefore the # of used cars is limited. Given that I view the current used prices will come down as there are more Tesla's on lots. Supply and demand economic model.

Additionally, based on how Tesla is pricing leases of their vehicles, I don't see that they are putting a very high residual value on them, so take that for what it's worth.

 

[bobandsherry]

Tesla’s “Start” Program Begins Training the Next Generation of Service Techs
By Chana Perton -March 27, 2019
https://www.cbtnews.com/teslas-start-program-begins-training-the-next-generation-of-service-techs/

You left out an important part of that article, this is training for people to work at Tesla. Not seeing any mention of training for independent shops.

The Start program is a 12-week concentrated capstone course integrated into an existing automotive curriculum. The description offered by the company’s website reads, “Tesla START is an intensive training program designed to provide students across North America with the skills necessary for a successful career with Tesla—at the forefront of the electric vehicle revolution. During the program, students will develop technical expertise and earn certifications through a blended approach of in-class theory, hands-on labs and self-paced learning.”

 

[eroscott]

It is high on my list of positives. The range and recharge time are high on my negatives for pure EV.

I've done several roadtrips in our Tesla (295 mile range but Tesla 400 volt 250 amp Supercharges are about 125 miles apart). Last summer I went from IL to northern MT to WA to CO to IL (out on I80, back on I70. It was over 5000 miles. Awesome time.

Some pictures from it in this post: http://www.early-retirement.org/for...or-electric-vehicles-96228-6.html#post2190455

Here's part of one I'm currently planning:
Aside: Jasper doesn't have a Tesla Supercharge but the lodge we'd stay at has Tesla 'Destination' charger. They are slower than most but add 30+ miles per hour. So overnight while dinner/sleeping/breakfast 9-10 hours we'd be 'full' again.

 

[JoeWras]

I've done several roadtrips in our Tesla (295 mile range but Tesla 400 volt 250 amp Supercharges are about 125 miles apart). Last summer I went from IL to northern MT to WA to CO to IL (out on I80, back on I70. It was over 5000 miles. Awesome time.

Yes, I read your story before.

We'll just have to disagree about the ability, convenience and ease of long range trips for now. Our tolerance for how this is done is different. I don't want an app or a plan to think about it. I also want to be in and out in under 10 minutes.

The day will come. For me, it is not there yet.

 

[Texas Proud]

I've done several roadtrips in our Tesla (295 mile range but Tesla 400 volt 250 amp Supercharges are about 125 miles apart). Last summer I went from IL to northern MT to WA to CO to IL (out on I80, back on I70. It was over 5000 miles. Awesome time.

Some pictures from it in this post: http://www.early-retirement.org/for...or-electric-vehicles-96228-6.html#post2190455

Here's part of one I'm currently planning:
Aside: Jasper doesn't have a Tesla Supercharge but the lodge we'd stay at has Tesla 'Destination' charger. They are slower than most but add 30+ miles per hour. So overnight while dinner/sleeping/breakfast 9-10 hours we'd be 'full' again.

The question then comes up... how many do they have? If there are more there than chargers who decides who gets it? I am sure it is first come first serve... but what does that mean for the person who did not get to charge?



If things go as some here think they will need a charger for each room... and I bet the price of the room goes up to compensate for all that infrastructure and electricity....

 

[samclem]

Yes, I read your story before.

We'll just have to disagree about the ability, convenience and ease of long range trips for now. Our tolerance for how this is done is different. I don't want an app or a plan to think about it. I also want to be in and out in under 10 minutes.

+1. To me, this looks like an exciting tour--of Tesla Supercharger locations. When I am flying cross country in my aircraft, I don't mind doing careful planning for fuel stops. If I'm going on a road trip, I want the freedom and flexibility to stop when and where we want.

 

[bobandsherry]

Yes, I read your story before.

We'll just have to disagree about the ability, convenience and ease of long range trips for now. Our tolerance for how this is done is different. I don't want an app or a plan to think about it. I also want to be in and out in under 10 minutes.

The day will come. For me, it is not there yet.

I agree with you. I just compared a trip to my son's. Direct route is 1220 miles. Based on EV planning tool, the trip would require 4:30 for charging time. I figure it would take about 3 stops with my ICE vehicle to fill-up, so that would take maybe 30 minutes of time. So the EV adds 4 hours.

Now I know, some people will say you can plan for your stops. But for us, we split the trip into 2 days. Each day is basically just driving right through. We'll maybe a grab and go for lunch before we stop for the night. All other nature breaks with fuel fill up.

I played around with some other EV cars, without the supercharging option, those would take 8 hrs of charging time. So I guess this shows where Tesla currently has the upper hand. But that prevents me from even considering an EV presently.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I agree with you. I just compared a trip to my son's. Direct route is 1220 miles. Based on EV planning tool, the trip would require 4:30 for charging time. I figure it would take about 3 stops with my ICE vehicle to fill-up, so that would take maybe 30 minutes of time. So the EV adds 4 hours.

Now I know, some people will say you can plan for your stops. But for us, we split the trip into 2 days. Each day is basically just driving right through. We'll maybe a grab and go for lunch before we stop for the night. All other nature breaks with fuel fill up.

I played around with some other EV cars, without the supercharging option, those would take 8 hrs of charging time. So I guess this shows where Tesla currently has the upper hand. But that prevents me from even considering an EV presently.

So you only own one car? Some elect to have an ICE and a EV.

 

[bobandsherry]

So you only own one car? Some elect to have an ICE and a EV.

Yup, only need one car so only have one car.

 

[aja8888]

GM only wanted to sell *just*enough* of these to get the ZEV credits (CARB states) so they could sell their SUVs and trucks. They stopped it when the $7.5 tax credit stopped. The didn't extend that R&D investment in CUVs or other vehicles. They had since 2010 to do that. They made too much profit with trucks, SUVs, and CUVs. They never advertised. They were not committed. They are being forced now by Tesla and others.

Thanks for the above!

This is a good explanation I had not seen before with respect to GM and profit planning. When the Volt first came out, I wondered why it was only available in very limited numbers around here (greater Houston, TX - 6,000,000 people). This makes sense as there are gobs of pickups sold here and not many EVs (back a few years).

I never even saw a Volt here until they were out for 5 years.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Yup, only need one car so only have one car.

Makes sense, why spend the cash unnecessarily

 

[eroscott]

Yes, I read your story before.

We'll just have to disagree about the ability, convenience and ease of long range trips for now. Our tolerance for how this is done is different. I don't want an app or a plan to think about it. I also want to be in and out in under 10 minutes.

The day will come. For me, it is not there yet.

No worries. My post are general enough that I hope a wide audience of lurkers and casual posters get a better understanding. I do some preplanning BUT you can just get in the car and press the voice control to tell it where you want to go. It then does a 'trip planner' and maps out your journey. It adjusts on the fly if you take detours.

I do find it funny/odd that on a retirement forum that people only want to spend 10 minutes and are in a hurry to get from point A to point B as fast as they can. I find this very amusing. Looks at some of the areas I'm traveling. Those have plenty of scenic overlooks and places to stop.

I'm purposefully slowing down in retirement, enjoying all the journeys, and taking more relaxing and scenic 'routes'. Stretch the legs, nature call, pick up a traveling drink and 20ish minutes later all is good (for chargers ~125 miles apart). Over lunch you just let it charge extra then your very next stop is shorter.

Also note that just a couple weeks ago Tesla announced their 3rd generation of superchargers that more than doubled the speed for the Tesla Model 3s and Model Y (upcoming CUVs). 120 kW to 250 kW max power flow. So my son will get an Over-the-Air/OTA update that will allow his car to take this speed PLUS when doing navigation and it sees you are going to a supercharger (waypoint) it will get the battery to the optimum temperature when you arrive.

The 2nd generation superchargers increased from 120 kW to 145 kW after a several million of miles of data collection on battery charging and longevity so they know the impacts and have adjusted.

Playing around with another route in CO that goes down and up the 'million dollar' highway.

 

[bobandsherry]

Odd? Nah. My travels when driving are focused on the end point. That's where family and friends are. Don't care to waste time along a route. Driving is more a end to a means, just not something I enjoy.

We never travel by car just for fun, that's done by airplane or cruise ship. Guess just shows different needs and wants for people.

 

[eroscott]

One of the latest Over-The-Air/OTA updates has software (AI/NN) to identify stoplights and react to them. Does not look like it is enabled yet but they are testing. This screen capture is from a test video I saw. Currently the car stops if there is another car in front of it. This feature is if there is only a stoplight (or stopsign) at an intersection and no car ahead of you. Previous videos also showed the Tesla software identifying the stoplines (wide white lines) which is related to stoplights/stopsign processing.

 

[Texas Proud]

No worries. My post are general enough that I hope a wide audience of lurkers and casual posters get a better understanding. I do some preplanning BUT you can just get in the car and press the voice control to tell it where you want to go. It then does a 'trip planner' and maps out your journey. It adjusts on the fly if you take detours.

I do find it funny/odd that on a retirement forum that people only want to spend 10 minutes and are in a hurry to get from point A to point B as fast as they can. I find this very amusing. Looks at some of the areas I'm traveling. Those have plenty of scenic overlooks and places to stop.

I'm purposefully slowing down in retirement, enjoying all the journeys, and taking more relaxing and scenic 'routes'. Stretch the legs, nature call, pick up a traveling drink and 20ish minutes later all is good (for chargers ~125 miles apart). Over lunch you just let it charge extra then your very next stop is shorter.

Also note that just a couple weeks ago Tesla announced their 3rd generation of superchargers that more than doubled the speed for the Tesla Model 3s and Model Y (upcoming CUVs). 120 kW to 250 kW max power flow. So my son will get an Over-the-Air/OTA update that will allow his car to take this speed PLUS when doing navigation and it sees you are going to a supercharger (waypoint) it will get the battery to the optimum temperature when you arrive.

The 2nd generation superchargers increased from 120 kW to 145 kW after a several million of miles of data collection on battery charging and longevity so they know the impacts and have adjusted.

Playing around with another route in CO that goes down and up the 'million dollar' highway.

We do stop along the way... and I have had some of the most interesting stops that were unplanned...


One time, year ago, when a friend and I was traveling we stopped at a museum in a small town here in Texas... walked right in and saw nobody... so we were looking at the exhibits and such... and was downstairs when an older lady (we were young at the time) came into the room and said 'hi boys, can you help me'... well, she put us to work helping her with the exhibits!!! She was telling us about the history of the various items etc... we stayed many hours more than we were planning but it was a major highlight...


Thing is, there would not have been a charger anywhere in that town, much less at that museum... and when I stop along the highway to look at the view... I also do not see a charger....


No, I am not interested in stopping and looking at whatever Tesla has in their supercharger locations... just like I am not interested in looking at what they have at a gas station unless I plan to eat something quick... I do NOT eat meals there... now, Buckeys might be different, but I think they are overpriced so I do not eat there but many people do..