Thoughts on TESLA

[bobandsherry]

What annual maintenance is required? Understood from an earlier poster that there was much less maintenance with EV vs. ICE.

So Google was my friend.... found this, but no mention of Model 3. The cost is $475-625 for first year, and as high as $825-975, all depends on model.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla-nodel-s-x-maintenance-plans/

 

[Ready]

So Google was my friend.... found this, but no mention of Model 3. The cost is $475-625 for first year, and as high as $825-975, all depends on model.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla-nodel-s-x-maintenance-plans/

They have not announced a service plan for Model 3 yet. There’s only a handful of cars that are a full year old now and there is very little information out there on what, if any, service has been recommended for them at this point. I believe other Teslas have been around $600 per year on average.

 

[eroscott]

What annual maintenance is required? Understood from an earlier poster that there was much less maintenance with EV vs. ICE.

Yes aside from the obvious things like no oil change, spark plug change, belts, etc, ... things like brake rotors and brake pads may rarely need to be changed on EVs compared to ICE (gas) cars. This is because of regenerative braking (aka one pedal driving) where letting up on the accel pedal essentially turn the electric motors into generators (think alternator) and it slows your car down without using the physical brake pads.

There is other annual maintenance defined in the manuals based on miles and/or years that include things like FOB batteries automatically replaced, tire alignments, various clean and lube, air filters (recall Model X had 4' hepa filter), possibly new 12v batteries that may get more use in an EV (computers running when car 'off'). Tires, washer fluid, etc are normal.

I've driven 36K miles in 16 months in my 1st Tesla Model X and did the 1&2 yr maint combined.

I've driven 21K miles in 12 months in my 2nd Tesla Model X and did the 2 yr maint as I bought it used with 4K (with regular maint done as a service veh).

You are not forced to get annual maintenance as I recall for warranty work. I plan on driving my vehicles a long time so I take my ICE and EVs in for the recommended maintenance. Way less costly to take care of vehicles before things go way wrong.

 

[eroscott]

The backup camera was never intended to be used instead of turning your head to look behind you. The field of view is too narrow to see everything, especially in a parking lot with pedestrians and shopping carts coming from both sides of the cars.

The Tesla rear view cameras have 140 degree FOV which is pretty wide. I mainly use my rear camera but do scan my side mirrors and rearview mirror.

Camera Locations and field of view.

• Front narrow (1.5″ to side); max distance 820 ft., 35 degree field of view
• Front main (1.5″ to other side); max distance 260 ft, 50 degree field of view
• Front fisheye* (center); max distance 195 ft., 150 degree field of view
• Left Pilar*, 195 ft., 80 degree field of view
• Right Pilar*, 195 ft., 80 degree field of view
• Left Repeater *, 325 ft., 60 degree field of view
• Right Repeater*, 325 ft., 60 degree field of view
• Rear* max distance 160 ft., 140 degree field of view
• Cabin (model 3 only) details unknown *

 

[NW-Bound]

Interesting. Wow, he spent very nearly half as much time charging as he did driving. And drove slower than he wanted at some points, and was considering reducing the A/C .

Not a knock against EVs, just the reality that at this time, that's kind of a square peg in a round hole match up. Interesting to note, people talk about 20-30 minute charge times, but as he points out, that's for ~ 80% charge. Lithium batteries require a slower charge rate for that last 20%, so he was charging for an hour (or more?) in the cases where he really needed a full charge to get to his destination.

-ERD50

Traveling with an EV may be OK, but towing a travel trailer should be done with an ICE or hybrid. When RV'ing, I take the back roads and having to plan to stop at a charging station will limit where I can go, particularly when the range is cut down to only a bit more than 100 miles.

 

[NW-Bound]

While watching the above videos, I happened to spot this video suggested by youtube. It's a review from a guy who ordered a Tesla 3 the end of November 2018, and had it delivered only 2 days later at his home.

He was not happy with the paint and exterior finish of the car. Looks like the car was built in a hurry.

 

[eroscott]

Title: 2018 Was A Giant, Awesome Year For Tesla — Because Elon Musk
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/30/2018-was-a-giant-awesome-year-for-tesla-because-elon-musk/

A couple charts comparing to ICE cars and one chart comparing EVs.

 

[oneill225]

While watching the above videos, I happened to spot this video suggested by youtube. It's a review from a guy who ordered a Tesla 3 the end of November 2018, and had it delivered only 2 days later at his home.
He was not happy with the paint and exterior finish of the car. Looks like the car was built in a hurry.

Obviously, not acceptable, but fixable as Tesla continues to deal with their growing pains. Maybe the $2,500 add-on cost (for that color selection) covers a second paint job. Tesla can get it right, as proven by the Model S which is number one in customer satisfaction.

The best way to judge Tesla as an investment is to look at their willingness to fix these issues (which they seem to be) and whether they are improving over time (which they seem to be). Any real competition for Tesla is still a year or two away and Tesla is gaining a lot of steam for a company that many proclaimed would be bankrupt now.

https://insideevs.com/2018-ev-recap-electric-vehicle-surge-tesla-prevails/

 

[ERD50]

Title: 2018 Was A Giant, Awesome Year For Tesla — Because Elon Musk
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/30/2018-was-a-giant-awesome-year-for-tesla-because-elon-musk/

A couple charts comparing to ICE cars and one chart comparing EVs.

...

And of course, if you look by brand, rather than model, Tesla comes up at #17 in the US. Probably more revealing, since Tesla has so few models, and most sales are in a single model. But I wouldn't expect a fan to post both to provide some objectivity.

U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – November 2018 YTD | GCBC

But the real question for Tesla is, how will they do in 2019, with debt coming due (and stock below the convertible price), the drop in Tax credit, and more competition in the EV market coming on line.

That Hyundai Kona looks interesting.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

And of course, if you look by brand, rather than model, Tesla comes up at #17 in the US. Probably more revealing, since Tesla has so few models, and most sales are in a single model. But I wouldn't expect a fan to post both to provide some objectivity.
But the real question for Tesla is, how will they do in 2019, with debt coming due (and stock below the convertible price), the drop in Tax credit, and more competition in the EV market coming on line.
That Hyundai Kona looks interesting.ERD50

So you prefer investments in Hyundai and Ford over Tesla? Good luck with that.

 

[Chuckanut]

This video is more proof that one should never buy a new car or seriously redesigned car in the 1st year of its production.

FWIW, after reading the WSJ article on the EV automobile paradise that is only a few years away, I have decided to defer buying an EV for about three years.

 

[ERD50]

.... The best way to judge Tesla as an investment is to look at their willingness to fix these issues (which they seem to be) and whether they are improving over time (which they seem to be). ...

That's certainly questionable. I know in my industry, warranty costs were a significant factor, and we hear that Tesla's gross margins don't leave a lot of room for error.

I suspect the big production push, and the way it was handled, is going to result in a lot of cost over the next 6 months. We will see.

So no, I think there are far more important measures of Tesla as an investment than their willingness to fix these issues. I'll agree that if they were resistant to fixing the issues, it would be a negative for their image. It's really about damage control, it's not a positive - only a fan would try to spin it as such.

.... Any real competition for Tesla is still a year or two away ...

" Tesla Will Face This Onslaught Of Electric Cars Beginning In 2019 "

https://www.investors.com/news/electric-cars-2019-tesla-car/

We will see.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

So you prefer investments in Hyundai and Ford over Tesla? Good luck with that.

I was providing another objective view of sales.

As far as investment, I don't speculate in individual stocks. I have no idea how TSLA will do as an investment against F or other car companies. But I do know that "cheer-leading" is not a sound investment strategy.

-ERD50

 

[Midpack]

And of course, if you look by brand, rather than model, Tesla comes up at #17 in the US. Probably more revealing, since Tesla has so few models, and most sales are in a single model. But I wouldn't expect a fan to post both to provide some objectivity.

U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – November 2018 YTD | GCBC

Tesla is just now entering the mainstream market, with only one somewhat affordable model, so it’s a little early to predict their demise.

On your incomplete list, I’m surprised as a brand Tesla is just behind Audi and already outselling Chrysler, Acura, Infinity, Mitsubishi, Lincoln, Land Rover, Volvo, Porsche, Mini, Jaguar, Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Genesis and Smart - all owned by mature, experienced automakers.

 

[Ready]

Now that I've had my Model 3 for about a month I've had a chance to think about my experiences with the car. While the focus of this thread has been comparing EVs to ICE cars, I don't know if the source of the fuel is really what matters to me. Don't get me wrong, I like to plug in at night and never have to go to a gas station. But that's not what motivated me to buy the car.

The Tesla ownership experience for me has been similar to the Apple experience. There is a deep integration between software and hardware in the Model 3 that creates a car unlike any other car I've driven. I'd say its similar to the experience you get when you own multiple Apple products, like a Mac and an iPhone, and you see how well they work together to create a seamless experience.

I still think of my Tesla as a giant iPhone with wheels rather than a vehicle. I don't know that I can explain it much better than that. I think it's just something you have to see for yourself and then make your own judgment. But to compare the Model 3 to cars like the Bolt, or the upcoming 2019 models from other manufacturers, doesn't tell the complete picture. Unless those cars have the same software experience as the Tesla, they are in a different ballpark.

 

[NW-Bound]

This video is more proof that one should never buy a new car or seriously redesigned car in the 1st year of its production.

FWIW, after reading the WSJ article on the EV automobile paradise that is only a few years away, I have decided to defer buying an EV for about three years.

As there's more competition coming on line, that will put pressure on Tesla to do better, or to lower its prices.

About Tesla as a long-term investment, I don't know if one can ever be sure. Investing is always a risky business. In 2000, Nokia ruled the world in digital cell phones, and Ericsson was also a strong runner. Photos of the CEO of Nokia were on the cover of several magazines, and I read an article on how the company transformed itself from a paper maker to a high-tech company.

At about the same time, I read that Okidata dropped out of the cell phone business. Who cares about Okidata, you say? Some of us may still remember Oki as a printer maker, but it claimed to be #1 cell phone maker in the US in the early 80s. Back then, an analog cell phone installed in a car cost $2500, and Oki rivaled Motorola for the top spot. Only 10 years later, Oki could not keep up in the digital phone business, and bowed out.

I would not bet against Tesla though; a lot of things can happen.

 

[aja8888]

Obviously, not acceptable, but fixable as Tesla continues to deal with their growing pains. Maybe the $2,500 add-on cost (for that color selection) covers a second paint job. Tesla can get it right, as proven by the Model S which is number one in customer satisfaction.

The best way to judge Tesla as an investment is to look at their willingness to fix these issues (which they seem to be) and whether they are improving over time (which they seem to be). Any real competition for Tesla is still a year or two away and Tesla is gaining a lot of steam for a company that many proclaimed would be bankrupt now.

https://insideevs.com/2018-ev-recap-electric-vehicle-surge-tesla-prevails/

For an additional $2500 for a paint job, they should have got it right the first time. The gap issues are manufacturing problems (assembly and fit control). It's apparent that the finish quality of the M3 is poor. Even the least expensive Hyundai won't be shipped, or even leave the factory, with those glaring quality problems.

 

[bobandsherry]

For an additional $2500 for a paint job, they should have got it right the first time. The gap issues are manufacturing problems (assembly and fit control). It's apparent that the finish quality of the M3 is poor. Even the least expensive Hyundai won't be shipped, or even leave the factory, with those glaring quality problems.

But.... but... but... it's Tesla and Elon, so come on, you have to ignore the quality issues and just hope that the didn't screw up something internally that's much more important and not as visible until well, something happens (like the car catches on fire or crashes into something).

 

[eroscott]

Tesla is just now entering the mainstream market, with only one somewhat affordable model, so it’s a little early to predict their demise.

... There is a deep integration between software and hardware in the Model 3 that creates a car unlike any other car I've driven. ...

The combination of those two comments is that the *one* car has several configurations of hardware *and* software ...
... that is a daily driver for some and on the 'extreme' end of performance driving cars they have a
Performance version with software that they designed with professional race drivers to give a software option of
Track Mode!

Tesla is obviously making other cars after the 3 like the smaller than Model X SUV called the Y *but* their Model 3 is proven itself it with it's flexibility.

Outline of the official desc:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/how-track-mode-works
1) More than just stability
2) More features, not fewer
Here is a summary of many of the features we employ with Track Mode while you’re on the track:
* Motor Torque for Rotation
* Increased Regenerative Braking
* Track Focused Powertrain Cooling
* Enhanced Cornering Power

Motor Trend
https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tes...erformance-track-mode-release-version-review/

Resident racer Randy Pobst and I are sitting on two black vinyl bar stools in the cinder block building next to Willow Springs' Streets circuit. He leans in: "It was fascinating to have that engineer sitting next to me, hanging on for dear life, holding a laptop and actually typing into it while I'm driving at speed." Changing its code? "Yes. And I could feel it in the car." He cockeyed-smiles with a sort of amused, "What the heck?" look on his face.

Nearby, the Tesla engineers have more of a look of cool relief. Earlier, a Model 3 Performance—software-flashed with its latest Track mode nervous system and mounted with 10mm-wider Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2s and track-friendly Brembo brake pads—had lapped the course in a 1:21.49. That hammers the 1:23.90 it set six weeks ago on its standard 235/35-20 Michelin Pilot Sport 4S tires under the software supervision of Track mode's earlier, wobblier prototype code.

Car and Driver
https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-tesla-model-3-performance-track-mode

The handling doesn't feel as if it's dictated by the vehicle's weight, but rather by what the car is actively doing to counteract that weight's inertia. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, and every reaction prompts an appropriate response from the Tesla's computers.

What's amazing about the experience is that without the torque interruptions necessitated by shifting or the distraction of a howling engine, you have the space in your mind to pick out just what's going on. It's almost as if time slows down. And yet, it all doesn't feel as digital as some heavily computerized supersedans of recent years.

The machine is doing real, mechanical work, and it's a pleasure and a marvel to experience it. If the feedback through the steering wheel isn't remarkable, what comes through the chassis is.

 

[corn18]

The wonderful thing about capitalism is that it will figure this whole EV thing out whether we agree with it or not. Doesn't matter if oneill225 is right or ERD50 or NW-bound or corn18. It matters what the market thinks and is willing to spend money on. If the value proposition for the market does not support the business model, Tesla will go away.

My prediction? Tesla will be a Macintosh until someone figure out the infrastructure to support EV's. I'm as right or wrong as anyone else and no matter how many times I post, we won't know the answer until after I'm dead.

More likely, the idea of owning a car or even driving a car goes by the wayside. Then the ground that Tesla laid in auto drive and EV technology will revolutionize the world. This is what I hope for my grandkids.

 

[NW-Bound]

Many of us, myself included, believe the EV segment will grow.

I just don't think it will be overnight, nor am I sure that who will be or stay the leader. Hence, I do not make investments in this business, but others can do what they believe.

Earlier, I mentioned investing in some lithium producers, but it was a very small investment of less than 0.25% of portfolio. It is so that it stays on my radar screen in case it explodes. I was doing the same with material stocks such as copper, cement, phosphate producers in the early 2000's, and was able to jump in early enough when I saw them taking off.

 

[eroscott]

...
My prediction? Tesla will be a Macintosh until someone figure out the infrastructure to support EV's.

One of the keys they have over everyone else for several years is their charging infrastructure. They have many pedestals/chargers per site unlike others.

1) Tesla Superchargers along major highways for roadtrips or just long 1 or two day drives (relatives for holidays as an example *or* someones second home/cottage/etc) (I've used dozens of these traveling on I70, I80, I90 over the past few years)
2) Tesla Urban Superchargers at malls, parking garages, etc in popular places.
3) Tesla Destination chargers at hotels, BnB, etc. (I used one a few months back in my counterclockwise trip around Lake Mich).

a) FindUs let's you narrow down to Superchargers (1,2) or Destination (3):
https://www.tesla.com/findus
b) Crowdsourced open, permitted, underconstruction:
https://supercharge.info/map

Red: installed; Grey: planned
Current: 1,386 Supercharger Stations with 11,583 Superchargers

 

[mpeirce]

More likely, the idea of owning a car or even driving a car goes by the wayside.

Maybe some day, but far far into the future. Unless humans stop living outside cities.

Most of the carless future scenarios I hear are city centric. It's not that hard to imagine not having a car if one never leaves a city - many people do this already. But once you get out into the great open parts of this country - and we truly are a huge country - they make less and less sense.

 

[NW-Bound]

One of the keys they have over everyone else for several years is their charging infrastructure. They have many pedestals/chargers per site unlike others...

Yes, I am impressed more by Tesla's supercharging network than their autopilot.

Without the superchargers, EVs are simply not practical for long-range travel. It does change the mindset of the public about EVs.

How much does it cost to build something like that? If EVs are to catch on, will other automakers join in to do something similar? Or a 3rd party who is willing to charge any EV for a profit?

They will need a supercharger standard that works with all models. I heard that they have one now. Interoperability is important, the same as all ICE cars being refueled at any gas station.

 

[aja8888]

Yes, I am impressed more by Tesla's supercharging network than their autopilot.

Without the superchargers, EVs are simply not practical for long-range travel. It does change the mindset of the public about EVs.

How much does it cost to build something like that? If EVs are to catch on, will other automakers join in to do something similar? Or a 3rd party who is willing to charge any EV for a profit?

They will need a supercharger standard that works with all models. I heard that they have one now. Interoperability is important, the same as all ICE cars being refueled at any gas station.

I'm curious to know how the owner of the car is billed for the power they consume at the Tesla charging stations? Do they use a credit card? Or is there some other system to charge the user? What's the cost of the electricity?