REWahoo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give
When Is It Safe To Ease Social Distancing? Here's What One Model Says For Each State
It appears that isn't going to happen, at least not within the next several months. And since that's the case...
The estimated date each state will reach that 1 new infection per million level ranges from May 6 (Hawaii, Montana) to July 19 (North Dakota). A few highlights:
Ohio - May 14
California - May 18
New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania - May 22
South Carolina, Texas - June 8
Florida, Kentucky - June 14
Arkansas, Georgia - June 22
The consensus view is that states shouldn't open up unless they have a robust system to detect and quash new flare-ups by testing to see who is infected, tracing their contacts, and isolating and quarantining as needed.
It appears that isn't going to happen, at least not within the next several months. And since that's the case...
...one team of disease modelers — from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation or IHME — ...are asking the question: What is the maximum number of new infections that states could handle with their current testing and contact tracing capacity?
IHME's answer: 1 new infection per million people in a given state. They estimate that states with this level of transmission should be able to keep outbreaks from flaring up even after people start mingling again, though the researchers stress that states would still need to limit large gatherings.
IHME's team built a model to forecast when each state will reach that threshold of 1 new infection per million. Their main finding is that very few states are close.
The estimated date each state will reach that 1 new infection per million level ranges from May 6 (Hawaii, Montana) to July 19 (North Dakota). A few highlights:
Ohio - May 14
California - May 18
New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania - May 22
South Carolina, Texas - June 8
Florida, Kentucky - June 14
Arkansas, Georgia - June 22