Where did all the excitement go?

[Lsbcal]

The market makes new highs again, and again, and again ....

But where is all the excitement about this? Have ER folks lost their mojo? Is it unfashionable to celebrate good fortune?

Instead we see a well attended post about shoes dropping.

Here is a chart of the last year for the SP500:

I guess this great market will not end soon as there are not enough posts urging bigger helpings of equities and not enough very bullish posts.

OK, I will start the bullish posts off. Our portfolio is doing great. We have the highest allocation to stocks since 2005.

Am waiting for extreme exuberance so lets get this fire going. Just kidding. Am just trying to stir the pot a little.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

It's OUTRAGEOUS! I am OUTRAGED!!!

There, how about that?

I look at the market each morning and scratch my head. I can't figure it out, but I am pretty happy with my returns over the last several years.

 

[W2R]

I am still just as excited!!! I thought maybe you all were getting tired of my happy posts about it. I guess not!

I just checked, and once again I have the highest total investments + bank account, ever!!! I am utterly thrilled.

 

[Fermion]

We are trying to be really really quiet because this bull is in a china shop.

 

[Lsbcal]

I am still just as excited!!! I thought maybe you all were getting tired of my happy posts about it. I guess not!

I just checked, and once again I have the highest total investments + bank account, ever!!! I am utterly thrilled.

I was trying to flush you out! Congrats.

 

[Lsbcal]

We are trying to be really really quiet because this bull is in a china shop.

I guess the china gets more and more delicate as we go up. But who knows where this ends. Or does it? Confused as always. But hopeful.

 

[W2R]

I guess the china gets more and more delicate as we go up. But who knows where this ends. Or does it? Confused as always. But hopeful.

It will end someday, for sure. But when it does, will we look back on these good times and think, "I *SHOULD* have been enjoying the good times when my portfolio was ramping up so much, but instead I was all bummed out because I knew the end was nigh."

I don't want to be like that. I'd rather be happy when there is cause to be happy, and prepare but yet save the stress and sadness for the many times when we have good reason to feel that way.

I am on the verge of becoming a multi-millionaire for the first time ever. Just you wait until that happens! I guarantee you there will be happy, happy posts. Or, life being as it is, I suppose the Big Plunge will happen just before I reach that milestone, or my house will burn down, or something. Meanwhile, party on.

 

[Toocold]

Maybe people are still waiting for it to go down to 18000 to get into the market

 

[Lsbcal]

I am always looking for the right formula to satisfy the greed/fear in me. The current idea is (1) set a max equity allocation and rebalance when it goes ~1% above max, (2) at some point reduce equities down by 10% to 20%. If there is a better way go ahead and post it here but note I am not a pure Boglehead .

It is not easy to enjoy prosperity which is here right now for us. There is always that looking over the shoulder. There is always that memory of 2008.

 

[jollystomper]

I am following the adage from my football days: "when you get to the end zone, act like you've been there before" .

 

[sheldon cornped]

One of my favorite sayings is "The Pessimist may be proven right in the end, but the Optimist will have a better trip along the way".

 

[pacergal]

As with W2R--our balances are higher than they have ever been. Very happy, but cautious just the same. Thats my nature I guess.

 

[rt-texas]

As with W2R--our balances are higher than they have ever been. Very happy, but cautious just the same. Thats my nature I guess.

We are the same way. More money than we have ever had four years into retirement. But until we are both collecting SSI in another eight years we will continue to be somewhat conservative.

Don't want for anything; except for more travel and that's covid and not money related.

 

[W2R]

As with W2R--our balances are higher than they have ever been. Very happy, but cautious just the same. Thats my nature I guess.

We are the same way. More money than we have ever had four years into retirement. But until we are both collecting SSI in another eight years we will continue to be somewhat conservative.

Don't want for anything; except for more travel and that's covid and not money related.

Congrats, rt-texas and pacergal!! I'm so happy for you. YAY!

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I do not know what to make of this market. I am both happy yet leery at the same time, but I am not feeling excited . For me it's a mix of emotions.

 

[NW-Bound]

Just because I do not cry "Wh***" all the time, it does not mean I have stopped telling my wife what kind of money is falling from the sky.

Why, just year to date, I am up 15x my WR for the last 12 months. And that spending even includes cash for a new car.

Surely, this cannot last. But if it does, there will be no "Wh***" from me. Things just happen, good or bad. My philosophy is less elation when things are good, and less teeth grinding when things are bad.

 

[foxfirev5]

Alright guys and girls let's not jinx it. I'm certainly climbing a wall of worry here. The bright side is that the upswing has not gone parabolic yet.

 

[ncbill]

I like to think of the current market in terms of the moons of Mars.

 

[FLD3C]

I like to think of the current market in terms of Mars's moons.

Ha ha ha

 

[triangle]

We are all bummed that we did not become Teslanaires. And that we did not trade all of our Bitcoin for Dogecoin. So that we could now go 100% into bonds and live in safety. Haha.

But the market does seem a bit blasé, with many predicting a sideways or near term downtrend before going up again. What to make of all the stimulus + low interest rates + covid reopening around the world. Lots of macro issues in the market to push things higher in the face of higher interest rates and taxes. I think both novices and professionals are not sure what to make of the mix of factors.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

I would be more excited with the market run up, if I didn't feel like this was another episode of Charlie Brown, Lucy, and the football.

 

[big-papa]

Studies show that in the long run these things don't matter all that much, if at all but....

Last year, a rebalance trigger happened which caused me to sell some bonds to buy more stock. That worked out. And now, I'm inching ever closer to a rebalance trigger that will have me selling some stock to buy more bonds. Will that work out? Who the heck knows? Just stayin' the course and following my IPS....

 

[Golden sunsets]

I am always looking for the right formula to satisfy the greed/fear in me. The current idea is (1) set a max equity allocation and rebalance when it goes ~1% above max, (2) at some point reduce equities down by 10% to 20%. If there is a better way go ahead and post it here but note I am not a pure Boglehead .

It is not easy to enjoy prosperity which is here right now for us. There is always that looking over the shoulder. There is always that memory of 2008.

This is similar to our approach, only our trigger is 2% above our equity allocation, not 1%. This has happened twice this year already and about to happen again, if we continue inching up.

The result of course is to tamp down our returns during a rising market, but soften our downside risks.

 

[Lsbcal]

Citi came out with its bear market checklist which I find very interesting. The current reading is 7.5 (out of 18) and they recommend buying the dips when the index is below 10.

The article is here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/citi-has-updated-its-bear-market-checklist-heres-where-we-are-now-11619521167?mod=home-page

 

[Telly]

We are the same way. More money than we have ever had four years into retirement. But until we are both collecting SSI in another eight years we will continue to be somewhat conservative.

But until we are both collecting SSI in another eight years

NOOoooo! If you are both collecting SSI in eight years, something terrible must have happened! I sincerely hope it does not!

"SSI" is Supplemental Security Income. It is a federal welfare program that replaced a myriad of state programs years ago. It is funded from the federal general fund. But the Social Security Administration was tagged with administering it, as they had the system and expertise in payments and people. No SSA money goes into SSI.

So... I hope in eight years you are both on SS.
(I have become an avid reader of Tom Margenau since our newspaper picked up his column in the past year )