ncbill
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
None of the Chinese-made vehicles so far have come anywhere close to meeting safety standards here in N. America...that's the biggest hurdle they've still got to overcome.
The challenge with new battery factories is that even if raw materials such as lithium is plentiful on earth there is not that much mining capacity. And building new mines is a very slow process.
While true, the demand for EV charging won’t be completely additive? Many/most EV owners will charge at night at home, and if they’re at all smart they’ll charge off peak when rates are lower, that can be done automatically pretty easily. That’s currently unused power generation capacity that would actually help power stations better balance their loading. I could not find how the numbers work out, what’s additive and what’s not, but a partial mitigating factor.Add to that limiting factor the current lack of generating capacity to meet future EV demands, the already highly stressed grid systems, along with solving how apartment dwellers will charge their vehicles.
Of course all these obstacles/limits can be overcome, but they will all be a drag on growth to one degree or another.
That's almost certainly because their marketing plans do not include the US market right now. I don't think there is anything so special about US safety standards that would make designing to meet them particularly difficult. IOW I think it's a hurdle they will just step over when they are ready.None of the Chinese-made vehicles so far have come anywhere close to meeting safety standards here in N. America...that's the biggest hurdle they've still got to overcome.
Tesla is experimenting with a new process of making cells, which was announced on Battery Day in Sep 2020. This "dry process" of making the separator for the lithium cell, in contrast with the traditional "wet process", promises a lower production cost. However, many cell makers are pursuing this idea, and Musk admitted in the 2020 presentation that there was a lot of work left. I have not seen any update on this. Until Tesla gets successful with this process, it still buys cells made by other cell makers.
Tesla is currently building their own battery factories in Texas and Germany where they install equipment for the dry process - not for the more area demanding wet process. I have heard both 250 GWh and 1000 GWh as the eventual capacity at these plants. Either way more than the 23 GWh (in 2019) Panasonic make for them today in Nevada. And more than the dry process pilot plant in California which has a capacity of 30 GWh...
I agree with the Chinese playing the long game. The idea that NA markets are that important to the long game is somewhat comical. Everywhere I go in Africa (pre-Covid) there were Chinese everywhere - building, selling, buying, loaning... The US footprint seemed less and less and always with so many strings. The major markets in the world are largely becoming China, SE Asia, south Asia and Africa. The Chinese will sell their 'inferior' EVs into these markets and become more and more expert in the technologies. They will also gain access to more and more strategic materials and eventually start allowing manufacture of their products by local labour in all of these markets (just as the Japanese did).None of the Chinese-made vehicles so far have come anywhere close to meeting safety standards here in N. America...that's the biggest hurdle they've still got to overcome.
Me, too.... I will bet on capitalism.
... many/most of the legacy automakers, domestic and foreign, have been dragged kicking and screaming into EVs, …
The US is the third-largest market for EVs, and its performance in 2020 reflected a tough year for automakers. Total new car sales were down by 23% in 2020 to about 14.6 million units, and sales of battery EVs fell by 11%, from 327,000 to 295,000.
Or maybe they just don't think the market is large enough for the current state of the art in EVs?
Legacy automakers generally aren't going to be flexible enough to deal with low volumes (unless the profit margin is there, like I assume it is with the Corvette, 21,626 sold in 2020 ).
US EV sales are ~ 2% of total, split across the ~ 10 legacy makers selling in the US, that's seems like a pretty small slice of the pie (though obviously growing).
The legacy makers may miss the boat, but I wouldn't rule them out, or base it on their production to date.
-ERD50
Me, too.
I'll guess that most Americans that pay attention at all see China as you do. IMO this is seriously outdated. The Chinese economic miracle that has slashed their poverty rate (https://www.bbc.com/news/56213271) and put them on a trajectory to become the world's largest economy is (gasp!) capitalism. Read here: https://hbr.org/2021/05/americans-dont-know-how-capitalist-china-is and particularly the paragraph titled "What is it that Americans don’t understand about China?" (Spoiler: The answer is "They don't know how capitalist it is.")
Of course the old line CCP philosophy is still holding them back, particularly in banking and heavy industry and they are struggling with "Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics" but capitalism is winning. In the past few months "Xi Jinping Thought" is probably taking them a few steps backward, but he's far too smart to kill the golden goose. Also, he appears to be concerned about avoiding the income inequality that has plagued (his view) Western capitalism. This, too, shall pass.
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Re your (silly IMO) software strawman, I'll offer this: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/china-beating-us-ai-supremacy
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I am no China expert, but I do read the news.
Well, we'll see. I think the system will slowly fail, possibly accelerated by slowed economic growth to come and definitely accelerated by leaks through the Great Firewall. Starlink or similar systems (Kuiper) will be illegal, of course, but may end up being the biggest leaks of all. I will be interested to see what they do, if anything, with geofencing.... Ultimately, I believe the govt control & lack of human rights related to this will be their undoing....though it will be brutal to watch along the way and may go on for decades. ...
The other thing is that the tax credit incentives do not help many retired or lower income people because those people don't pay enough in taxes to take advantage of a $7500 tax credit. The tax credit is useless to me.
I have a hard time seeing any authoritarian government replacing the USA as the world leader in new advanced tech. They simply won't tolerate anybody in their country getting too powerful. Look at Russia and China these days. Any person who gets to powerful is cut down to size that the dictator/leader thinks is best. IOW, they will kill (or at least hobble) the goose that lays the golden eggs.
If China overtakes the USA it will be because the USA shot itself in the foot.
EV tax credits are "up to" $7,500. EV tax credits are based on the amount of income taxes you pay and the size of the vehicle's battery. Basically, that means if you pay $3,000 in income taxes you get a $3,000 tax credit and not $7,500. So, yes, the EV tax credit is useful for everyone, but not everyone will get the full $7,500 credit.
Without blaming either party, I sometimes wonder whether our (US) current two-party system is functioning that much better than some one-party systems. It's starting to feel less like a democracy and more like a kleptocracy. That can't be good for our long-term economy.