Could be me...I am a PIA sometimes....but Firecalc success rate with our spending with what we have right now, if I had access to the funds (I’m 55) is 100% to age 93.
Well, it could be you. Not enough information. Some factors that might be important:
1. Have you looked at your spending and how it might change as you retire and age? Now -- 10 years after DH retired and I semi-retired we spend roughly 1/3 what we spent at your age. Why? Part of it is that our kids are now completely grown. Part of it is that even apart from kids a lot of our lifestyle has changed. We got rid of the 4500 SF house that had 2 double garages and a guest house. We now live in a house about half that size and on a lot instead of over 2 acres. So living expenses are far less. We are on Medicare. Health care costs are far less than they were pre-Medicare. And, so on. While there are some people who spend more in the early years of retirement especially, most people end up spending less money as they age. So you might look at your spending and see how it would change during various stages of retirement.
2. Do you have any money outside of retirement vehicles that could get you to 59 1/2? (There may other options as others have mentioned). But it may be important if you have enough money outside retirement vehicles to get to that age.
3. Are you considering SS? I ask because a shocking number of people just don't include it at all. While I think it is nice to be able to retire without considering it, most people will get SS and it forms an important part of their retirement budget.
4. How much risk do you want to have? It sounds like you want 100%. When DH and I were approaching this, he was OK with anything above 80%. I was OK with 95% (still am).
Another way to look at it is to prioritize certain spending. That is, when I was OK with 95% if I looked only at necessary spending plus some discretionary we were at 100%. It was only 95% if I went by desired level of spending. Many people will want 100% for a sort of basic OKish level of spending and might be perfectly happy to have 93% for all the bells and whistles.
5. How much is time worth to you in terms of future spending? 10 years ago if DH and I had continued working another several years there is no question we could spend more money than we spend now. We knew that. But, we were willing to trade some of that future spending to have the extra time of retiring then. Maybe you and your wife need to talk about this idea of getting to 100% for your current level of spending and see if it is worth to both of you to do that. Maybe your wife, for example, would say I am willing to trade $20k a year of future spending in order to be able to retire now. But, maybe she would not want to do that. Same for you.
From what you have said 93% with current mid-50s level of spending, I would personally probably agree with your wife. But -- and this is a big but -- there has to be a viable way to get to 59 1/2. If there isn't then I would chance my mind. Also, how long with it take to get to a percentage you are comfortable with? There is a big difference between waiting one more year and waiting 5 more years.
