Grocery Stores: The Future?

[Huston55]

Does anybody remember Webvan and what a collosal failure it was?
Too many overconfident 'smart' guys in one room.

The big mistakes they made, and many of the posts above, seem to point to why the Webvan model will likely never work everywhere. But, it's interesting what's come from their demise...Bezos has hired several of the principals involved in that failure, is learning from their mistakes, and is applying that to AmazonFresh.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterc...mazon-learned-from-webvans-flop/#6b6c809d8147

While reading about this, one of the coolest things I found was the link/article on "Kiva", the warehouse automation company; absolutely fascinating.

 

[Chuckanut]

The best reason I can think of for having groceries delivered to my home is that I am returning from a six week vacation in the late afternoon and it would be nice to have a small box of groceries sitting on the front porch, so I can rest from my travels and buy food another day.

 

[ShortInSeattle]

Does anybody remember Webvan and what a collosal failure it was?

Too many overconfident 'smart' guys in one room.



The big mistakes they made, and many of the posts above, seem to point to why the Webvan model will likely never work everywhere. But, it's interesting what's come from their demise...Bezos has hired several of the principals involved in that failure, is learning from their mistakes, and is applying that to AmazonFresh.

I remember Webvan! I worked with Bay Area startups at the time, and we were all so convinced Webvan was indestructible. I lost some money on that one, and the lessons of that bubble brought me to index investing.

SIS

 

[plex]

I've tried Peapod when I didn't have a car in DC. It filled a nice niche at the time, I didn't have to carry 40+ lbs of food, but even then, I had to go to Trader Joe's, or I could have picked another place, to fill in the gaps. Peapod would often not have an item I ordered, and would have no substitute, the freshness of fruits/veggies were OK, but not great, same with expiration dates. I absolutely had to fill in those holes myself by going to a store. In addition, it was somewhat expensive, even with regular coupon codes it averaged $5-6 per delivery, sale items were not common, and discount items were nearly non-existent, premium items were uniformly more expensive than a place such as Trader Joe's.

I am much happier now that I have a car in Texas and can go to 3 different places right next to each other, always get the freshest items, much more fruits/veggies, nothing is missing, requiring an emergency trip, and the prices/discounts are great.

Ordering online does happen for me for some things, dental goods, batteries, and other non-food items are almost always cheaper online, and there are no worries about what will happen during the shipping, but for everything else, online groceries/delivery is generally for special needs situations as it is now, it isn't a good substitute. Something huge like Amazon would have to take over and properly streamline everything for online groceries to ever be competitive for the average person.

 

[FUEGO]

The best reason I can think of for having groceries delivered to my home is that I am returning from a six week vacation in the late afternoon and it would be nice to have a small box of groceries sitting on the front porch, so I can rest from my travels and buy food another day.

That's what a can of soup or some instant tom yum noodles are for. Seems like by the time we get home from one of those 6+ week vacations we're exhausted and just want something light and simple.

 

[Texas Proud]

I know that people are talking about buying online and having it delivered to your door being great...

BUT, I knew a guy when I was in NYC who lived on the 4th floor of a walk up... he would go to the store and buy what he wanted and then request delivery... I think he paid something for it, but he said walking up the 4 floors with cases of beer was not worth it...


I used to go every few days and buy a little at a time, but had no family at that time... also had an elevator... but even in London I would walk up 3 stories since the elevator was SLOW....

 

[audreyh1]

Wife and I went to Sam's Club today. They have an app called "Scan and Go". All you do is scan the code of the item you're purchasing (works very well and quickly). When all done, simply complete the transaction (pay) on the app. Then when exiting the store, show phone to the employee and they do something with their gizmo and you're free to leave. Very simple.
My only question: When we were leaving the store and the employee used his thingamajigger, how did the store know we didn't put any extra items in our cart? If that gizmo somehow knows exactly what we bought is all that is in the cart, it's a huge time saver for the company. Also, I will guarantee in a short time, fewer checkers. It really is super convenient.
http://corporate.samsclub.com/…/5-reasons-to-check-out-scan…
I just now got off the phone talking to Sam's Club we went to today and asked her the above question. She said it scans our most expensive item down to the lowest cost item, with the # of items bought. She also said people would be able to put in extra items without store knowing, so it does take vigilance on the part of Sam's Club.
She also said even employees love it. They can just get a salad, on just one item, pay through their phone and they're on their way.

Wow, OK, that sounds really cool!!

 

[audreyh1]

The best reason I can think of for having groceries delivered to my home is that I am returning from a six week vacation in the late afternoon and it would be nice to have a small box of groceries sitting on the front porch, so I can rest from my travels and buy food another day.

My sil in Amsterdam does exactly this. When they return from a week or two gone they have ordered groceries delivered a few hours after arriving home.

 

[Koolau]

This must be an interesting time to be in the grocery business. I've seen several of the new services locally and can't figure which, if any, will work well enough to become the new "standard" in grocery shopping. I don't see local markets disappearing completely, but I could be wrong.

Personally, I don't particularly dislike shopping - especially when I have a need-list. I have plenty of time, now that I'm FIRE'd. The main thing I dislike about shopping (for anything) is waiting in a long check-out line. It always amazes me that I can go to Costco and they will have just enough check-outs open to cause a 10 minute wait time - no matter how busy the store is. That's not a ridiculous wait time, but opening just a couple more check-outs would cut it down quite a bit. I always wonder what those checkers do when they are NOT checking folks through. They seem to appear magically once the carts get so backed up that no one can get through the aisles.

How this will all "end" is anyones's guess. YMMV

 

[audreyh1]

Personally DH and I have really enjoyed using the self-checkout. We self bag anyway - even at the regular checkout. Self-checkout is limited to 20 items or less at our local HEB, and we usually have that or fewer items. If it's empty we don't feel bad even if we have a few items over 20.

Our HEB has kept the self-checkout lanes since installing them many years ago, so they must be working for them. They dropped the item limit to 15 for a while which inconvenienced us a bit, but then raised it back to 20 again.

I'm looking forward to having some of these other convenience features. We're not members of Sam's club, but that new Scan and Go scheme sounds really promising.

I'd love the convenience of the occasional grocery delivery too. I wouldn't use it all the time, but it takes us 20 mins to drive to the store, so even to pick up a few items usually becomes a 1hr round trip.

 

[CaptTom]

Interesting topic. Our closest supermarket just put in one of those on-line order pick-up systems. I find it ironic that the logo for the program is a tomato. One of the few things you DON'T want someone else picking out for you!

Was in one supermarket which had the hand-held devices to scan as you go, and pay without checking out. We went there a couple of times every weekend for a few months, and never saw anyone using them.

I've bought hard-to-find food items from Amazon, but most are more expensive due to the shipping costs being included in the price. I do have a $5 credit to use for Amazon Pantry. I'm thinking I may try something different and see how it works out.

We use the self-checkout a lot. It's frustrating sometimes, but often it's less frustrating than waiting in line. And bagging ourselves, we can avoid dumb moves like putting the melon in on top of the bread or bananas.

I think these technologies will work themselves out, but there will be a lot of dead ends that don't turn out as well as originally thought.

 

[RunningBum]

My favorite supermarket (Shaw's, an Albertsons company) ended its experiment with self check out, and I couldn't be happier. Very little is as annoying as a balky machine. "Please place the item on the belt." I did, it's right there. "Please place the item on the belt." I'll lift it and set it down again, now can we continue? "Please wait for assistance." Grrrrrr...

Yeah, I get annoyed when the machine doesn't behave like this, and it does happen more than I'd like. But were you forced to use it? I've never had to, but usually chose to.

 

[RunningBum]

Another thought: I read labels. Can you get that info when you buy on-line? In my case I'm interested in sugar, fat and calorie content and if I have a choice of brands, I'll take the one without high-fructose corn syrup.


Although I agree that ordering groceries on-line is a great option as we age and our mobility is limited, but I hope it doesn't mean people will move in the direction of more processed food.

I think you can find most labels online. I don't look all that often, but when I have I've been able to find what I was looking for. Not as convenient has having it right there as you're looking at it. On the other hand, at home I can more easily look up what something on the label actually is ("oh, that thing I've never heard of is basically HFCS"), compare products, read reviews, etc. I can do all that on my cell phone too but it's usually easier on a bigger screen.

 

[RunningBum]

Re: bagging, my Martin's store has a method where you can pick up a handheld scanner and scan and bag in your cart as you go. The produce area has a few scales which produce a scannable price label. Then when you get to the self-checkout, you do something to transfer your order from your scanner to the machine, which you can review, then pay and go. Every once in awhile they will randomly check your order, where a worker will scan a few items and make sure you actually scanned it.


I like it because I have a long drive from there and like putting stuff in my cooler immediately. Plus I can make sure right there that the price is right. I doubt it saves time if the store isn't crowded because it's probably quicker to scan everything at once at the end, but if a lot of people do this, the checkout jam is significantly reduced.


The biggest drawback was that the transfer method was often balky, and I'd often need help getting through this. They'd tell me I had to do it in a certain order, and I'd point to the written instructions that listed a different order which I had tried. Seems like they've finally got it right now.

 

[Bir48die]

Does anybody remember Webvan and what a collosal failure it was?
Too many overconfident 'smart' guys in one room.

The big mistakes they made, and many of the posts above, seem to point to why the Webvan model will likely never work everywhere. But, it's interesting what's come from their demise...Bezos has hired several of the principals involved in that failure, is learning from their mistakes, and is applying that to AmazonFresh.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterc...mazon-learned-from-webvans-flop/#6b6c809d8147

While reading about this, one of the coolest things I found was the link/article on "Kiva", the warehouse automation company; absolutely fascinating.

My old company bought many of their delivery vans for cents on the dollar. One man's loss is another man's gain.

I was in the food business for the large majority of my career. Brick and mortar stores will not go away. They may change hands, consolidate, increase in size, decrease in size, etc. Whole Foods thought they had a niche until all the majors decided to go with large organic sections and now WF is really struggling due to high margins required to stay afloat.

Consumers want to pick their own produce and meat/deli items. Center of the store groceries can be purchased anywhere. Dairy and deli packaged meat can also easily be delivered.

It's all about cost vs convenience. Whatever is the most important to your family. I live in an area that has both ends of the earning spectrum and we all meet at Winco (lower margin store) because we all share the savings goal. However, I will generally not buy my meat or seafood there.

 

[Bestwifeever]

We self-checked out in a Walmart over the weekend and needed assistance for almost every item mostly after moving something in the bag. Poor cashier assistant was ready to kill us.

I can see a little independent grocery store almost from my house but hardly ever go there as prices are higher; DH goes there all the time when we need just a couple of things. We've never ordered ordinary food products online. The past couple of years has seen a boom in new grocery stores in the Chicago area, so I wonder if the consultants really see online as the wave of the future. Grocery stores seem to act as warehouses anyway, whether we are the delivery people or they send someone out.

DD uses an outfit called Instacart that is pretty reasonable; she lives in a heavily urban neighborhood. Amazon delivers everything else to her. I see Peapod trucks in her area a lot, too. Maybe she is the target age and socieoeconomic group for online groceries.

ETA: when I was very young, we lived in an apartment complex. A food bus came through once a day with bread, milk, canned goods, etc.--pretty much everything my mom cooked with (meals were pretty simple then). With four kids under six years old and no car, she used it a lot. Sort of a hybrid delivery service!

 

[LOL!]

I always have a pleasant experience in our grocery stores. That's mostly because I'm a regular and I get exactly what I want without wandering through the store to get stuff I don't want. The stores are Kroger and Trader Joe's.

Our TJ is small and has a limited selection, so I only buy 2 or 3 items that I can carry out in my hand. I haven't even been down 2 of the 4 aisles in the store.

Kroger is pleasant because I buy hardly any "dry goods", but get all my salad fixings and dairy items there. As a signed-up Kroger customer, they send me coupons in the mail for the exact things I buy including amazingly coupons for fresh vegetables. The coupons amount to about 30% off the cost of every trip. So if one is comparing prices, they really can't do it.

Things I don't buy: rice, pasta, flour, sugar, frozen goods, paper goods, anything in a box or can. You can see how that eliminates more than half the store. I haven't used their "pickers" because I am in and out in a couple minutes mostly spent with the vegetables.

I guess I am boring because I eat the same stuff over and over. I know what a high price is and just don't buy things if the price is higher than I expect. Sometimes the high price is double the low price, so I will do without. Also I really really like the self-checkout which is fast and always works for me.

And a by-product of all this is that our garbage is minimal. We just aren't throwing out packaging and bad food that never got into the house in the first place.

 

[Huston55]

My old company bought many of their delivery vans for cents on the dollar. One man's loss is another man's gain.

Yep.

Only one Webvan employee got a severance package: CEO George Shaheen. He got $375k/yr for life.

Wonder if he orders his groceries on line.

 

[imoldernu]

You might find this story interesting. It's about groceries and refugees in Jordan, using iris scan to "pay" for the food.

At Zaatari camp supermarket, Syrian refugees shop with blink of an eye | Reuters

Hmmm... progress

 

[mpeirce]

As a signed-up Kroger customer, they send me coupons in the mail for the exact things I buy including amazingly coupons for fresh vegetables. The coupons amount to about 30% off the cost of every trip. So if one is comparing prices, they really can't do it.

I like this too. Coupons for the products that I actually am interested in buying. What a concept.

 

[Huston55]

I like this too. Coupons for the products that I actually am interested in buying. What a concept.

Safeway does the same thing.

 

[kcowan]

The best reason I can think of for having groceries delivered to my home is that I am returning from a six week vacation in the late afternoon and it would be nice to have a small box of groceries sitting on the front porch, so I can rest from my travels and buy food another day.

That is the only time we want home delivery. We come back from the south and our place has been rented out so there is nothing in the fridge. So we need a starter kit to get us through the next day.

Otherwise, since being retired, we enjoy shopping. OTOH we love getting heavy stuff from Costco, HD etc delivered. Never go to the store for that stuff.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

There are lots of discussions (and news) about the downfall of brick and mortar stores and how the likes of Amazon is a very large part of this change. This, in conjunction with all the "prepared dinner package" subscriptions, got me thinking about the future of the grocery store.

Here in ATL, there is a "new" chain opening around town called Lidl (very similar and direct competitor to Aldi) that will have the store foot print of about 35,000 square feet, which I *think* is about 1/2 the size of current grocers. I am also seeing delivery services pop up for Publix around here, so I am thinking that we may see an "Amazon" type revolution in the fairly near future. I would be thrilled to have most of my dry goods delivered, as I am just not a fan of grocery shopping and I imagine I am not alone but so far, I don't want to pay the 20% or so premium to do so.

I envision that most goods will be warehoused much like Amazon does (very large fulfillment centers) that will significantly reduce the commercial space footprint and large labor pool that is used now. I also think that a lot of folks will still want to pick out their favorite fresh items (fruits/vegs/some meats) so there will be a need for stores, but the days of a 55,000+ square foot store may soon be in the past.

Thoughts/Idea?

I look forward to necroposting in 15 years when all my groceries are delivered via self driving cars and/or unmanned aerial vehicles.

I know im a dying breed, but i dont do costco or BJ's. They are like going to Home depot(i dont go there either). Those stores are un appetizing to me. I pay a lot more for the service part of going to the butcher, fish store, bakery. But for the extra i get free chat time. I shoot the breeze with each proprietor, typical small talk hows the bride, did you enjoy that roast last weekend etc. My nephew sent me food via a truck it was real Belgium waffles and real maple syrups, it was awesome too , just not my speed.

 

[LOL!]

I know im a dying breed, but i dont do costco or BJ's. They are like going to Home depot(i dont go there either). Those stores are un appetizing to me. I pay a lot more for the service part of going to the butcher, fish store, bakery. But for the extra i get free chat time. I shoot the breeze with each proprietor, typical small talk hows the bride, did you enjoy that roast last weekend etc. My nephew sent me food via a truck it was real Belgium waffles and real maple syrups, it was awesome too , just not my speed.

I'm not dying, but I am able to do the same small-talk with the folks in the Kroger. It's just familiarity from going there often. Some of the employees were players on basketball teams that I have coached. That was back when they were in 3rd grade.

The folks in produce and in the meat department are not going to be manning the cash registers, but one can ask them about anything and they will do special things for you just like at a stand-alone butcher or produce market.

I get amazing service regularly. Here are a couple of examples:
"Sir, I'll open this register for you, are you ready?" and then when someone got in line after me (maybe it was you?) "Sorry, this lane will be closed as soon as I'm done with this customer."

-or-

"We have a special on king crab legs today. Would you like to try some that I've just cooked?" "I'm not fond of crab legs, but my son loves them." So my son eats a pound or two of cooked crab legs.

-or-

I can send my kid over to get something. "Go ask Betty in the meat department for ... she'll know exactly what I am looking for."

Employees are not evil and they like to be treated with respect. It's amazing what they will do for you even in a big box store or national chain. There is no Costco nor BJs close enough to me, so I cannot comment on those establishments, but the Home Depot folks are amazing to me whenever I go. I don't bother searching for anything anymore, but just ask as I walk in. I get great tips on fixing things, too. And they have special-ordered plants for me, too.

 

[mpeirce]

...but the Home Depot folks are amazing to me whenever I go. I don't bother searching for anything anymore, but just ask as I walk in.

Lately, when I walk into Home Depot the person in front asks me what I'm looking for. "Concrete paver adhesive". "That's one third of the way down isle 15".

And it is right there! This has happened to me three times recently. Each time a different employee.

I don't really understand how they memorize where each item is exactly. Maybe they are employing humanoid robots there now?