Japan has 1 in 10 people 80 or more in age

[street]

With such an aging population I wonder what risks the country maybe in store for in the future.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66850943

 

[Midpack]

1 in 26 for the USA and trending higher? China is going to have huge problems once the 1 child policy fully catches up with them.

 

[street]

1 in 26 for the USA and trending higher?

WOW!
I didn't realize that thanks. There may be some positives in these numbers, but I can think of a lot more negatives with those numbers.

 

[braumeister]

Germany, Italy, Greece, and Portugal are not far behind.

 

[REWahoo]

At my age this is one of those issues where I want to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution...

 

[Gumby]

There is an interesting piece in today's NYT today that predicts world population will peak at 10 billion in about 2085 and then plunge precipitously.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...RQqfK9Bd-olCnVIzBARvi9C0ELraIw&smid=url-share

 

[AZflowers]

That really says a lot of things: for one, the Japanese live sensibly and have good genes. And, in spite of calamities like earthquakes and typhoons the people are back on their feet and moving ahead.
[mod edit]

 

[Aerides]

I watch a fair amount of shows from Japan. Interestingly this topic came up last night on a show. The main character was considering running for city council, so her family helped her prep for a debate. The first question they threw at her was how to address the upside down population, and help younger people consider starting families. In addition, I guarantee those metrics are even more out of whack in small and rural towns vs. the cities. Entire small towns are basically dying off in Japan as younger people leave to find work.

It struck me as interesting as it's a basic "kitchen table" conversation much like those that would poll in your top 3-5 concerns here, or in any country.

 

[NW-Bound]

Germany, Italy, Greece, and Portugal are not far behind.

In 2020, Germany has 5.9 million seniors of 80+ of age. Out of a population of 83.2 million, that's 7% or 1 in 14.

That number was expected to increase at a rate of 2.72%/year, according to the Web page I saw the above statistics.

I have read that many elderly Germans went to nursing homes in Poland, which supplies the manpower for care.

PS. The 2.72% annual increase is on the number of 5.9 million. Now in 2023, or 3 years later, it would be 6.38 million. If the total population does not increase, the 7% has grown to 7.7%, or 1 in 13.

 

[NW-Bound]

At my age this is one of those issues where I want to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution...

Well, I don't know if you thought of the Elon Musk solution or what.

He has sired 11 kids by several women, and has said he wants to do good for society.

 

[street]

Well, I don't know if you thought of the Elon Musk solution or what.

He has sired 11 kids by several women, and has said he wants to do good for society.

11 children would keep a man in the poor house. Those big families were a norm in the day.

 

[street]

There is an interesting piece in today's NYT today that predicts world population will peak at 10 billion in about 2085 and then plunge precipitously.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...RQqfK9Bd-olCnVIzBARvi9C0ELraIw&smid=url-share

Very interesting. Thanks for the link.

 

[NW-Bound]

11 children would keep a man in the poor house. Those big families were a norm in the day.

Musk is exceptionally rich, so has no financial problems although one wonders about other aspects of raising kids.

In many countries, the government has incentives to get people to have offsprings. Some years ago, at an RV park at the Grand Canyon I talked with a German couple. They were on vacation and had an infant with them.

The husband said that for having the kid, they were rewarded with some long time off with pay, and that was how they could travel to the US. Many countries provide or subsidize for day care, tax credits, etc...

 

[Andre1969]

The Japanese also don't have hordes of their citizenry running around busting a cap in each other, and taking countless lives out of the equation at a young age. Those early deaths probably drag the United States' overall median down somewhat.

 

[aaronc879]

At my age this is one of those issues where I want to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution...

Not me. I good to go in my 70's. My likely pain and lack of mobility will make life not worth living into my 80's. YMMV

 

[NW-Bound]

While the percentage of octogenarians is going up around the world, I don't think it's because longevity has gone up that much. I know plenty of people who dropped in their 60s and 70s.

Rather, the octogenarian percentage goes up because of low birth rates everywhere, except in third-world countries. An implication of this will be increased immigration pressure.

 

[Ronstar]

BIL and I were discussing GDP/ output/ low unemployment along these lines a few days ago. Not enough young people entering the workforce - Economies will be stifled by not having enough workers to produce goods and services.

 

[jollystomper]

The Japanese also don't have hordes of their citizenry running around busting a cap in each other, and taking countless lives out of the equation at a young age. Those early deaths probably drag the United States' overall median down somewhat.

Perhaps not, but they do have a suicide problem among young people. Much of that seems to be related to economic opportunities, or lack thereof.

 

[NW-Bound]

China is also having a big problem. Youth unemployment rate runs as high as 21%, with many college graduates not being able to find work. Worse, some complained that they could not even find gig work like food delivery. This led to the phenomenon called "bai lan" ("let it rot") or "laying flat".

I would think that with the population getting older, there would be more opportunities for the young, but it has not worked out that way. Why?

I have not read of an answer, so venture my own theory as follows. As the population gets older, it consumes less or has less desire to do so. I can look at myself as an example. I cannot find anything exciting to spend money on.

So instead of work designing fancy consumer products or exciting high-tech developments, the youth now have more service-oriented work to deal with the elderlies. Diaper changing, spoon-feeding, bathing and clothe changing work, anybody?

It looks bleak.

 

[street]

China is also having a big problem. Youth unemployment rate runs as high as 21%, with many college graduates not being able to find work. Worse, some complained that they could not even find gig work like food delivery. This led to the phenomenon called "bai lan" ("let it rot") or "laying flat".

I would think that with the population getting older, there would be more opportunities for the young, but it has not worked out that way. Why?

I have not read of an answer, so venture my own theory as follows. As the population gets older, it consumes less or has less desire to do so. I can look at myself as an example. I cannot find anything exciting to spend money on.

So instead of work designing fancy consumer products or exciting high-tech developments, the youth now have more service-oriented work to deal with the elderlies. Diaper changing, spoon-feeding, bathing and clothe changing work, anybody?

It looks bleak.

I'm sure that is a big part of it. We always need too young to carry on with the life. A shortage of young blood coming up in a consistent pattern could be devastating for a country in a lot of areas.

 

[Car-Guy]

There is an interesting piece in today's NYT today that predicts world population will peak at 10 billion in about 2085 and then plunge precipitously.

Where is the world going to get enough food to feed 10b people.... Soylent Green maybe?

 

[USGrant1962]

Where is the world going to get enough food to feed 10b people.... Soylent Green maybe?

Where have I heard this before? Oh, yea, it was the 1960s.

The 1960s are calling and they want their panic porn back. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

 

[Music Lover]

China is also having a big problem. Youth unemployment rate runs as high as 21%, with many college graduates not being able to find work. Worse, some complained that they could not even find gig work like food delivery. This led to the phenomenon called "bai lan" ("let it rot") or "laying flat".]

I don't care if a communist country collapses. In fact, I think it's a good thing.

And if extremely intelligent and successful people like Musk have 11 kids, then that's a good thing. I'm not sure why you disagree?

 

[tmm99]

I haven't read the whole thread, but Japan is importing foreign workers to improve their lack of labour force to support their economy (including supporting their old age pension, etc.)

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't care if a communist country collapses. In fact, I think it's a good thing.

And if extremely intelligent and successful people like Musk have 11 kids, then that's a good thing. I'm not sure why you disagree?

What I care about when seeing problems in China is that the same demographic problems may develop in other developed countries. It's something to watch to see what we can learn from.

About Musk, I doubt that he can be an effective father with so many kids that he hardly sees. Perhaps kids nowadays no longer need parents, and can learn everything themselves from the Web via a smartphone. Or perhaps with a lot of money, any problem can be circumvented and a solution bought, such as hiring a surrogate father figure.