Outdoor air and Corona Virus infections

[audreyh1]

Who thinks the US we'll see a spike 5 to 7 days from now?

Hard to say. People are more scared now than they were on Mother’s Day, Memorial Day and Father’s Day, more restrictions have been put in place in many areas, particularly bars closing and indoor dining closed, masks required in many states or municipalities. We’ll see soon enough.

 

[REWahoo]

Who thinks the US we'll see a spike 5 to 7 days from now?

I think it will not show up that soon, more like 2-3 weeks. Have to allow for incubation, onset of symptoms, testing, then results before numbers get reported. But yes, we will definitely see another spike.

The question I'm interested in is will the current spike dissipate any before then, or will this simply continue the acceleration of the current growth rate. I sure hope we don't look back on the current hospital case load and wish we could return to our current "bad but manageable" vs. "completely overwhelmed".

 

[Midpack]

These day you can find a credible sounding “expert” to support any POV. All you have to do is present evidence that supports your established view and consciously omit all other evidence.

 

[Rianne]

Our temperatures recently are in the 90's. No breeze. I don't feel comfortable getting close to anyone outside in this weather. Yet, groups of joggers, shoulder to shoulder, getting their exercise breathing deeply and exhaling. I saw this July 3rd. I wonder if many people really pay attention to the danger of this behavior. Do they understand aerosols or care? I keep wayyyy more than 6 feet from joggers.

 

[W2R]

Who thinks the US we'll see a spike 5 to 7 days from now?

I predict that here in Louisiana we'll have a spike today, once the numbers come in, with twice the previous daily increase in both cases and deaths!

My reasoning is that yesterday no numbers were reported for Louisiana, so today's numbers will cover both days really. Just one more inconsistency in numbers and reporting from one state to another.

We might even see the highest daily numbers ever.

 

[Red Badger]

I follow the CDC summaries. somewhat encouraging. The death rate is, for now, at epidemic, and not pandemic levels. Subject to change...

Excerpt from last week:
Severe Disease
Hospitalizations
Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, are updated weekly. The overall cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rate is 102.5 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people aged 65 years and older (306.7 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (155.0 per 100,000).

Mortality
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. The percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.

 

[explanade]

I think it will not show up that soon, more like 2-3 weeks. Have to allow for incubation, onset of symptoms, testing, then results before numbers get reported. But yes, we will definitely see another spike.

The question I'm interested in is will the current spike dissipate any before then, or will this simply continue the acceleration of the current growth rate. I sure hope we don't look back on the current hospital case load and wish we could return to our current "bad but manageable" vs. "completely overwhelmed".

I don't think they will be spikes any more.

They will be sustained cases like mini NYs in several cities.

Saw an article headline for CA that people were no longer scared of covid, which is why they're doing more "normal" activities.

After a couple of months, there's a lot of "lockdown fatigue" so more people are behaving like everything is okay.

 

[sengsational]

I think it will not show up that soon, more like 2-3 weeks. Have to allow for incubation, onset of symptoms, testing, then results before numbers get reported. But yes, we will definitely see another spike.

Right. 5 to 7 would have a cohort that's just realizing something was amiss, health-wise. Then for the unfortunate 20% (+/-) who's symptoms get bad, it will take another few days for them to get bad enough for the hospital. The spike I was thinking about was hospital admissions....kind of the first measurable thing. I was thinking that in the US, the 4th is the holiday when you're "supposed to" go and do something...at least in the culture I was raised in. Other summer holidays too, but less so. Probably just my bias, but if we were going to see a holiday bump, seems like the 4th would be a likely time.

 

[harllee]

Who thinks the US we'll see a spike 5 to 7 days from now?

I am currently in the mountains of North Carolina and I fully expect a 4th of July spike here. This county so far has only 20 known cases of the virus so the powers that be decided it was Ok to have the big celebration with fireworks, etc. I did not go but I heard it was packed, few masks. From driving a round it appears that very few people are following the state mandate to wear a mask (I asked a local about this and they said--we don't need a mask here because we don't have many cases). The highways are full of cars with Florida license plates. What could possibly go wrong? The only reason I am staying is that I can sit on my porch and go nowhere and enjoy the 75 degree weather.

 

[lalanian6]

A few days ago I was out for a walk. I was on the sidewalk on one side of the street. A guy walking on the other side was smoking. It was breezy. I could smell the smoke from his cig for at least a 1/2 block. Indoor, outdoor, the virus is very powerful if you are in contact. I'm not sure what all factors in, but we'll continue to remain cautious.

This one works as good as anything else i've seen:

 

[ivinsfan]

Enough with the M word pretty please.. we just had another thread closed because of it. I was interested in that thread topic and it's outcome with the first responder but no joy.

 

[tmm99]

Enough with the M word pretty please.. we just had another thread closed because of it. I was interested in that thread topic and it's outcome with the first responder but no joy.

Me, too. He is totally asymptomatic still from what I understand. I wonder if anybody contracted the virus from him. I wonder what result he will get if he takes an antibody test. My understanding is that even if you test positive like him, asymptomatic folks usually do not have loads of antibodies, but is that always the case?

 

[tmm99]

DH loves riding the bike during summer but he doesn't want to this year. He said he doesn't want to come around the corner and all of a sudden, someone is right there and sneezes at him or something. He doesn't want to take any chances. I told him he could wear a helmet, goggles and a mask, but he said he would get too hot, and it's not worth a bother, so no bike riding for him this summer.

We were talking about getting an ebike before Covid-19 but that will have to wait...

 

[harllee]

DH loves riding the bike during summer but he doesn't want to this year. He said he doesn't want to come around the corner and all of a sudden, someone is right there and sneezes at him or something. He doesn't want to take any chances. I told him he could wear a helmet, goggles and a mask, but he said he would get too hot, and it's not worth a bother, so no bike riding for him this summer.




We were talking about getting an ebike before Covid-19 but that will have to wait...

We have actually ridden our bikes more this spring/summer than ever before and we have really enjoyed it. Traffic has been down to I feel safe to ride places I would not before because of all the traffic. I keep my mask in my pocket and put it on as necessary. The I feel like am getting too close to someone else I hold my breath and peddle fast.

 

[Chuckanut]

A few days ago I was out for a walk. I was on the sidewalk on one side of the street. A guy walking on the other side was smoking. It was breezy. I could smell the smoke from his cig for at least a 1/2 block. Indoor, outdoor, the virus is very powerful if you are in contact. I'm not sure what all factors in, but we'll continue to remain cautious.

That's a good sign. Loss of smell is an early sign of CV19. One expert spritzes some perfume into the air every morning to help determine if he might have been infected.

 

[Badger]

DH loves riding the bike during summer but he doesn't want to this year. He said he doesn't want to come around the corner and all of a sudden, someone is right there and sneezes at him or something. He doesn't want to take any chances. I told him he could wear a helmet, goggles and a mask, but he said he would get too hot, and it's not worth a bother, so no bike riding for him this summer.

We were talking about getting an ebike before Covid-19 but that will have to wait...

Sorry to hear he has decided to give up bike riding. In my case it is the only exercise I can do so I am out just before sunrise to avoid people. I also have the option to ride away from others. Then I ride for an hour or two.
Did you know you can make a face shield from a clear document protector? You can slide your sunglasses in the holes and you are good to go.

For extra protection you can wear a mask too.


Cheers!

 

[tmm99]

Sorry to hear he has decided to give up bike riding. In my case it is the only exercise I can do so I am out just before sunrise to avoid people. I also have the option to ride away from others. Then I ride for an hour or two.
Did you know you can make a face shield from a clear document protector? You can slide your sunglasses in the holes and you are good to go. For extra protection you can wear a mask too.


Cheers!

Yeah, DH can wear a shield too, but at this point, with the pandemic going on, he doesn't want to bother. He doesn't bike ride for pleasure like some people do. He uses it as a means of transportation during summer months instead of driving, so it's pretty much in-city riding for the most part. Good that you are enjoying riding. I do see people riding more now, probably safer than riding buses.

 

[stepford]

DW and I have been biking 3-4 days a week in sunny plague-ridden southern California. We both wear masks the whole time. I typically go with a paper surgical mask and she with a cloth buff. While it certainly isn't as comfortable as going maskless it really wasn't hard to get used to. Now going out for a ride without a mask feels kinda naked, like going without a helmet.

 

[athena53]

Our knowledge keeps changing- think how much we've learned just since March- but I've seen enough credible sources saying that the risky activities are in closed areas, poor ventilation, no distancing and shouting or singing.. I'm grateful because I've attended a few outdoor gatherings (under 10 persons, with distancing, no sharing of food or drink), church services (large, airy sanctuary, about 1/10 the number of people we could accommodate, windows open, masks, no singing, no Coffee Hour, no communion wine) and I LOVE my morning bike ride. I feel safe in the gym (used it twice while bike was in the shop) but even safer on the bike.

So far, so good. I'm concerned about the onset of colder weather when we all go back indoors again.

 

[timo2]

So far, so good. I'm concerned about the onset of colder weather when we all go back indoors again.

As others have noted, the summer temps in the south and southwest also drive people indoors. And right now the big outbreaks are in the south and southwest. Probably a coincidence. But if the big outbreaks shift back north when winter temps force the northern people inside, then that could be a trend.

 

[Rianne]

I think everyone should learn sign language. No one gets to talk. Any cough or sneeze immediately goes into a cloth of some sort. Exercise must be done in a well ventilated or hepa filtered environment, unless it's outdoors.

I would probably fly if the rule were no one talks and everyone wears a mask. Keep your mouth closed. I'm not seeing any studies about transmission if you just breathe through your nose. All the studies seem to focus on aerosol spread from the mouth. When you breathe through the nose the droplets go down, do they rise up?

Just throwing some ideas out there!

 

[sengsational]

I think everyone should learn sign language. No one gets to talk. Any cough or sneeze immediately goes into a cloth of some sort. Exercise must be done in a well ventilated or hepa filtered environment, unless it's outdoors.

I would probably fly if the rule were no one talks and everyone wears a mask. Keep your mouth closed. I'm not seeing any studies about transmission if you just breathe through your nose. All the studies seem to focus on aerosol spread from the mouth. When you breathe through the nose the droplets go down, do they rise up?

Just throwing some ideas out there!

Another layer of safety / protection that is even more important now that we "know" air transmission is a big vector is UV-C emitters. I'm surprised we haven't seen more about this. I still predict it will happen, especially on aircraft, mass transit, restaurants... places where people "have to" be too close together. https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...t-all-in-a-restaurant-103423.html#post2416500

 

[explanade]

UVC is harmful to humans isn't it?

So they can't exactly put them in places people would be exposed to UVC at greater intensities than sunlight. Many people can't endure too much sunlight either.

Even if it was okay, it would be hard to cover enough interior spaces with such lights.

Though maybe about as hard to re-engineer in buildings as maybe doing new HVAC systems which would make sure to constantly cycle fresh air in and push old air out of places.

 

[donheff]

UVC is harmful to humans isn't it?

So they can't exactly put them in places people would be exposed to UVC at greater intensities than sunlight. Many people can't endure too much sunlight either.

Even if it was okay, it would be hard to cover enough interior spaces with such lights.

Though maybe about as hard to re-engineer in buildings as maybe doing new HVAC systems which would make sure to constantly cycle fresh air in and push old air out of places.

I have read of commercial systems for restaurants, gyms, and work places that pass returning air from HVAC through UV light chambers.

 

[davebarnes]

'I thought this was a hoax': Patient in 30s dies after attending 'COVID party'

SAN ANTONIO, Texas (WOAI/KABB) – A patient in their 30s died from the coronavirus after attending what's being called a "COVID party," according to a San Antonio health official.

Chief Medical Officer of Methodist Healthcare Dr. Jane Appleby said the idea of these parties is to see if the virus is real.

"This is a party held by somebody diagnosed by the COVID virus and the thought is to see if the virus is real and to see if anyone gets infected," Dr. Appleby said.

According to Appleby, the patient became critically ill and had a heartbreaking statement moments before death.

"Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said 'I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it's not,'" Appleby said.