wabmester
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2003
- Messages
- 4,459
bpp said:This came up on raddr's board last May:
http://www.raddr-pages.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2546
Wow, that's great work, bpp. Let's hope it doesn't happen here. Lots of good insights on that thread.
BTW, Swedroe had some data last year on the recent ScV outperformance, and I believe it was the highest in history (or at least since WWII). Scary all around. And I do believe that F&F didn't find much of a small-cap premium internationally.
crestmont said:Yes, I assumed 'yield' for the quick analysis since the presumption would be that today's investor would be "stuck" with current yields. Even if there were total return gain/losses, the reinvestment rate would be at market yields and thus would imbed the now current yield.
That's a good point -- bond returns are more predictable than stock returns. It seems a little odd to mix current bond yield with historic stock returns, but I like the insight. Maybe you'd get a different SWR result if you also assumed the current embedded inflation estimate in those bonds (assuming you used historic CPI data in your analysis).