wabmester
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2003
- Messages
- 4,459
crestmont said:Just curious, for those in this group that expect average (10%) returns, what are your assumptions for the three components of total return:
1. EPS growth,
Long-term, about the same as GDP growth, which I think could well be lower than historical growth.
2. Dividend Yield, and
About the current yield.
3. P/E Change?
Absolutely no clue, which is why I have to stay in the market.
When was the last time the US market had a "reasonable" P/E? The last time P/E10 was anywhere near average (~15) was in 1990 -- 17 years ago!
So, if P/E[10] hasn't "worked" in almost 20 years, which valuation metrics should we use, and what should we do about it?
What are the alternative investments today with expected returns of, say, 4-7% real?