Right time to pull trigger on summer flight?

[Lsbcal]

We are planning on flying from San Francisco to Amsterdam on Aug 20 and coming back from Vienna to San Francisco (open jaws). I used Google flights to find the best nonstop flights with our constraints. I'm wondering if this is too early to book that far out. But the price looks reasonable.

Here are some thoughts on this. The price seems to be quite good on KLM at $1097 but I don't have past travel pricing for this route. Some historical data on the web is hard to intrepret because the low price might be a 30 hour flight. The 3 months out price for KLM is $1000 so that late summer flight does not look too inflated by seasonal factors. I am thinking the pricing is decent right now maybe because (1) KLM flies the Boeing 787 dreamliner on this route, (2) the strong dollar. Just guesses.

On our previous European nonstop flights the price was in the $1500 range for SFO to Heathrow or SFO to Paris.

What do you think about buying now?

Another minor question: Do you pay for selected seating or do you perhaps wait until the 24 hour checkin to select your seats? DW wouldn't want to fly international seated away from me.

 

[Bamaman]

Don't overlook Norwegian Air Shuttle is flying to Europe out of Oakland for ridiculously low airfares. You can also connect through them and other budget air carriers to destinations throughout Europe. See Norwegian.com.

I receive emails daily from Scott Keys who has a newsletter called Scott's Cheap Flights, and am seeing flights substantially what you've been quoted.

I'd be willing to wait a little longer to see how airfares shake out in the early new year. With the value of the U.S. Dollar up, 2017 is THE year to go to Europe.

 

[walkinwood]

Check out the app "Hopper". It predicts fares and works well for roundtrips, but doesn't handle open-jaw or multi-stop trips.

 

[Lsbcal]

Bamaman, I did check out Norwegian. This was the Oakland to Gatwick route. Very cheap but by the time I added in the extras we would want, the connecting flights to AMS and from Vienna, etc., the savings kind of went away. Plus this would be more complex and more chance for errors.

If there is a better way to use Norwegian I'd be interested. I found their site a bit confusing to navigate.

I'd not hesitate to use Norwegian if we were just going to the UK.

 

[DrRoy]

The timing on these things is a crap shoot. I have the same issue for several flights next year, the first at the beginning of April. I'm going to keep waiting too, and I am following Google flights and Hopper.

 

[CardsFan]

I think $1,100 each, direct sounds like a good deal. But I have not flown the route, so I am not sure if it could be better.

Regarding reserving the seats, if it is reasonable, I would pay to make sure I had the seats I wanted. I checked Seat Guru. If you are on the 747, there are seats near the back that are only 2 to a row. If you are on the Dream liner, it is 3-3-3, so I might elect to have ailse seats across from each other. But that those are just my preferences.

To me, having aisle seats, or be next to one another in a two seat row, is worth locking in early.

 

[Lsbcal]

Interesting comments CardsFan. I asked because the last time we paid for the seat selection on a Europe flight and it turned out on check-in (24 hrs before) that we could have gotten decent seats together.

 

[Lsbcal]

I found a source for price tracking history that goes back a few weeks for specific flights. If you go to Google flights and select a round trip, you look at the bottom of the page and turn on price tracking. Then you select "view tracked prices". At the bottom you see something like this:

Slowly becoming a personal travel agent.

 

[NW-Bound]

Out of curiosity, I checked the price for RT SF-Schiphol in late August. Only KLM has non-stop flights for the price that you showed.

A cheapskate like me would take a flight with one stop for $600 less. It costs an additional 4 hours of my life.

 

[Lsbcal]

NW-Bound, the price I mentioned was for the multi-city roundtrip i.e. SFO to AMS outbound, VIE to AMS then AMS to SFO inbound.

 

[tulak]

That's a good price for August. Last year we paid $960/ticket flying through Iceland and KLM is a better airline for not much more. I figure anything less than a grand from the west coast during summer is pretty good. I remember some years paying up to $1500/ticket. That was painful.

Of course, we still work so have less time flexibility, but if the flight times are good, I'd probably book it.

There was a thread last year regarding very low prices to Europe in the summer. I don't remember all the details, but if you can find it you might get a better idea of the lowest fares you could expect and when they are offered.

 

[NW-Bound]

NW-Bound, the price I mentioned was for the multi-city roundtrip i.e. SFO to AMS outbound, VIE to AMS then AMS to SFO inbound.

Sure. But a one-way ticket VIE-AMS is only another $100, if the connection time works out.

An open-jaw SFO-AMS then VIE-SFO with one stop each is also cheaper. In other words, there's a premium for the non-stop SFO-AMS leg.

 

[Lsbcal]

Sure. But a one-way ticket VIE-AMS is only another $100, if the connection time works out.

An open-jaw SFO-AMS then VIE-SFO with one stop each is also cheaper. In other words, there's a premium for the non-stop SFO-AMS leg.

I'm not sure how you go about seeing this. Is there a way to put this into Google Flights or are you using another app? Obviously, I'm confused.

I tried putting just SF0-AMS in with 1 stop allowed. Round trip did not show good results. If I had good results then I could then add in the VIE-AMS separately.

 

[NW-Bound]

I used Kayak.

 

[Lsbcal]

I used Kayak.

Thanks! The lower flight prices seem to be mostly with Finnair.

There is a savings of maybe $230 to $280 per ticket depending on the travel days. The tradeoffs seem to be longer flight time (1 stop going over, as you mentioned), and older designed planes (A330 vs Boeing 787).

Not sure how to evaluate A330 planes. Still needs a bit more research but it looks interesting.

 

[audreyh1]

We are planning on flying from San Francisco to Amsterdam on Aug 20 and coming back from Vienna to San Francisco (open jaws). I used Google flights to find the best nonstop flights with our constraints. I'm wondering if this is too early to book that far out. But the price looks reasonable.

Here are some thoughts on this. The price seems to be quite good on KLM at $1097 but I don't have past travel pricing for this route. Some historical data on the web is hard to intrepret because the low price might be a 30 hour flight. The 3 months out price for KLM is $1000 so that late summer flight does not look too inflated by seasonal factors. I am thinking the pricing is decent right now maybe because (1) KLM flies the Boeing 787 dreamliner on this route, (2) the strong dollar. Just guesses.

On our previous European nonstop flights the price was in the $1500 range for SFO to Heathrow or SFO to Paris.

What do you think about buying now?

Another minor question: Do you pay for selected seating or do you perhaps wait until the 24 hour checkin to select your seats? DW wouldn't want to fly international seated away from me.

I always look at my flights to Amsterdam (from McAllen via IAH) about 3 months out and may book at 2 months. According to my research 60 days is usually the sweet spot in terms of prices dropping. https://www.cheapair.com/blog/cheapair-news/the-best-time-to-buy-a-flight-is-54-days-out-or-is-it/

Last year I caught a great deal at under $600 RT because United has a big sale. $1097 would be a good normal price for me as $1300 is common, but I have gotten some prices just above $1000.

We always pay for selected seating and pay up for economy plus because DH is tall and really needs the leg room. We bought a one year economy plus subscription this year as it cost just a little more than the upgrades on our Hawaii flight and we have used the heck out of it this year. We ended up flying twice as much as expected.

When I booked KLM for a Europe flight this year they charged very little for seat assignments and the longer legged seating so I did it.

I prefer direct from IAH to AMS, but other Europe cities I often have to stop in Newark or somewhere else on the US east coast.

Direct from SFO - wow, that's long!

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah - I often use google to track prices. Recently they have been warning me of imminent prices increases. These are based on time periods when certain fares are no longer available, and perhaps also on number of seats left for a certain price. It's been interesting.....

Tuesdays and Wednesdays outbound are often the cheaper days because traffic is light. Although by the time we have the day arrives, that IAH to AMS plane has always been full.

I prefer a cross Atlantic plane with 2-3-2 seating as DH and I sit together and have easy aisle access and I can sleep against the window. On the 3-3-3 seating, like the Boeing 777 that United flies from IAH to AMS we choose aisle seats across from each other.

 

[NW-Bound]

There is a savings of maybe $230 to $280 per ticket depending on the travel days. The tradeoffs seem to be longer flight time (1 stop going over, as you mentioned), and older designed planes (A330 vs Boeing 787)...

When I looked, the price was less than $600 for RT SFO-AMS, and the time was decent in midday. I used Wednesday as travel time for both directions. That tends to be the least traveled day, hence the lower price compared to weekends.

Two weeks ago, I got RT LA to Paris for less than $500. It has gone up to $700 now.

 

[Lsbcal]

Very interesting comments Audrey. I am inclined to book early because the Euro is down so much that I'm thinking Americans will increase their Euro flights. That goes for hotels too, especially the good ones that are refundable.

We prefer nonstop because of 10+ hours is hard on us. I am hoping that the Boeing 787 cabin pressure + humidity is going to make intercontinental flying easier on my body. We try to land back in SFO at a time to avoid traffic jams as the car trip back home is around 1.5 hours. So a Sunday return in the early afternoon is nice. Got to remind myself this is suppose to be a fun trip.

So there are many considerations besides price. On this forum we often talk about SWR and when it comes to the details, I think sometimes I revert to the old "economize to get that bargain" mindset. I'm glad you mentioned about more seat room and I'll look into this although we are not large or tall people.

It's fun for me right now to plan this and learn new planning tips. Lots of rain and pretty cold here in California this week.

 

[l8_apex]

$69 flights to Europe coming next year - TravelSkills

Story on US - Europe fares starting from $69 one way. Holy smokes!

 

[NW-Bound]

They probably will have only 5 seats at that promotional price, and they get snatched within 3 seconds of getting released for booking.

 

[Breedlove]

That is going to be interesting , flying 737's . Great for domestic flights but for the 5000 mile haul ....Could get edgy .

Just checked local Escape Houston and Escape Dallas . They are offering Paris for 588.00 from Dallas all summer May through August . But these are kind of flash prices , so they go quick.

 

[ivinsfan]

Do any of you get the feed of the The Points Guy ,his FB feed has almost real time notices of fare sales.

I'm not seeing much firmness in flights to Europe, lots of sales, they go until April but I wouldn't be surprised to see them carry thru until Summer. The demand just doesn't seem to be strong. I booked a great fare sale MSP/LHR in late Spring for a Nov flight and 30 days before departure saw the fare drop another 250 bucks. Now sometimes its more then money, I upgraded at purchase to Economy plus and got a 2 row bulkhead seat. it cost 99 each way. this seat was fantastic I had at least 4 feet of legroom and being bulkhead behind first class, my personal space area seemed massive. I sat with my DD and we both agreed it was the best possible seat after a first class seat...there were 4 seats like that available on our plane and we got the last 2.

 

[NW-Bound]

That is going to be interesting , flying 737's . Great for domestic flights but for the 5000 mile haul ....Could get edgy..

I didn't know they will have a version of the 737 that has enough range to go across the Atlantic. I sure hope the seats are not the same as used in the domestic short-range versions.

Living on the West, when I went to Europe I often suffered a lot more in the 1st leg to get to the east coast because of the smaller plane used for domestic flights. Long-range aircraft seats are better, so this time I am going to LAX to take a larger plane from there, even if that takes me another short flight to get there.

Some years ago, Lufthansa used to fly nonstop Phoenix/Frankfurt. We took that a couple of times, and the plane was only 1/2 full. I was once able to take up an entire middle row, and lie down for a good sleep. So, they discontinued that for lack of traffic. Last I looked, they moved the departure point to Denver.

 

[Lsbcal]

I've been tracking that KLM open jaws flight on Dreamliner 787 (sfo to amsterdam, return vienna to amsterdam to sfo). The rate was is up $50 to $1047 from that quoted 5 days ago. This feels like stocks i.e. you see a price and then it ticks up and my tendency is to buy fearing further rises. If the stock goes down I feel like maybe it will go down just a bit further. Where is that trigger??

When I look out 2 months the rate is $150 lower for the same flight. But at 3 months out and beyond it is looks like the same $1047.

I am not going to wait until 2 months before (in June) to book this. It feels like trying to make a purchase in stocks. One never knows what is coming next. So I'm inclined to pull the trigger now.