Second round of layoffs has started

[Chuckanut]

According to the WSJ a second round of layoffs has started and it ain't pretty. Since it involves CV19, this article may not be behind the paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-seco...n-no-one-is-safe-11586872387?mod=hp_lead_pos5

A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses that set up employees to work from home are laying them off as sales plummet. Corporate lawyers are seeing jobs dry up. Government workers are being furloughed as state and city budgets are squeezed. And health-care workers not involved in fighting the pandemic are suffering.

“Any company that had been planning to open a second location, that hired an architect, an office designer, and contractor—they’re not opening that location this year and those people now won’t have jobs. Any company planning to go public this year, that hired accountants, consultants, PR professionals—they’re laying off all those teams,” said Ms. Pollak.

When word of possible layoffs began to spread in mid-March, clinic staff expected a week or two without pay. Employees jokingly shared a PowerPoint presentation on how to file for unemployment benefits. That document became essential when she and her colleagues were informed they’d be without a job at least through June 19. The military had given stop-work orders to all nonessential contractors on base to limit any risk they might spread Covid-19.

 

[Dtail]

Sounds like another reason for the market to go up.........

 

[Spock]

Sounds like another reason for the market to go up.........

 

[11522914]

Sounds like another reason for the market to go up.........

As soon as we hit 35% unemployment the market should be testing the previous record high.[emoji43][emoji2957][emoji16]

 

[davebarnes]

Disney axed 43,000 today.

 

[gauss]

I was wondering how much productivity is occurring with everyone working at home. Not suggesting that people are goofing off, but rather what value is actually being created.

Note - I managed to get out of the w*rk force back in 2011 or so before remote meetings became the norm -- at least in my area -- so I may have blinders on.

 

[Dtail]

Disney axed 43,000 today.

Officially a furlough with up to 12 months medical benefits.
Not good, but quite different than a white collar office worker getting laid off who will never get a chance back at their old job.

 

[razztazz]

As soon as we hit 35% unemployment the market should be testing the previous record high.[emoji43][emoji2957][emoji16]

Why is the stock market forecasting all clear/all normal within 6-8 weeks?

This is essentially not an economic event. It's an external imposition. If you listen to the word out there it's as good as over. They keep couching it on gloom and doom terms but it's more like ending not beginning and it never has been as bad as the initially establishment bowel movements were demanding we accept.

Everything has been in "warm storage" and can be reconstituted in short order. It's like Tinker Bell and the 1969 Mets. You gotta believe.

If we get that 35% unemp, it can be reversed quickly depending on what the Money centers want.


Weeks ago I thought the happy talk was forced and contrived. Now it's looking more and more like the that "dark ages" talk is forced and contrived

 

[razztazz]

HA! You could have used Uncle Miltie Friedman's picture too.

 

[brewer12345]

Why is the stock market forecasting all clear/all normal within 6-8 weeks?

This is essentially not an economic event. It's an external imposition. If you listen to the word out there it's as good as over. They keep couching it on gloom and doom terms but it's more like ending not beginning and it never has been as bad as the initially establishment bowel movements were demanding we accept.

Everything has been in "warm storage" and can be reconstituted in short order. It's like Tinker Bell and the 1969 Mets. You gotta believe.

If we get that 35% unemp, it can be reversed quickly depending on what the Money centers want.


Weeks ago I thought the happy talk was forced and contrived. Now it's looking more and more like the that "dark ages" talk is forced and contrived

And you believe this because...? The heavily manipulated equity market went up?

 

[Sunset]

...
This is essentially not an economic event. It's an external imposition. If you listen to the word out there it's as good as over. They keep couching it on gloom and doom terms but it's more like ending not beginning and it never has been as bad as the initially establishment bowel movements were demanding we accept.

.....

Yep, as long as keep everyone locked down, it's just about over in 3 more weeks.

Then what

It sure isn't going to be normal for a couple of years

 

[razztazz]

And you believe this because...? The heavily manipulated equity market went up?

I didn't say I believed it. I was just related what things appear to be doing out there. hence the ref to "The Money Centers." If you understood it you'd see I'm about where you are. I am in Cap-Pres mode because there's too much uncertainty. But there doesn't appear to be as many frightened investors as there ought to be. Much of this is just "will" anyway. At least as far as the stock market goes. If they see 20-30% unemp and think it's temporary then they will react in accordance with. Doesn't matter if they are wrong. If they are then there will be another turn later

 

[jollystomper]

I was wondering how much productivity is occurring with everyone working at home. Not suggesting that people are goofing off, but rather what value is actually being created.

Note - I managed to get out of the w*rk force back in 2011 or so before remote meetings became the norm -- at least in my area -- so I may have blinders on.

A lot depends on how measurable the results are. For me, If one had to produce a tangible output (e.g. for me it would be things like working code, a system design, performance/testing results, a project task), then it can be easy to measure. If one mainly is attending meetings, then, in my opinion, not so much and it can be a drag on productivity (such as meetings I had to attend where my team of 3 doing the work had to update 20+ folks from different organizations and deal with conflicting opinions/desires).

 

[Spock]

I didn't say I believed it. I was just related what things appear to be doing out there. hence the ref to "The Money Centers." If you understood it you'd see I'm about where you are. I am in Cap-Pres mode because there's too much uncertainty. But there doesn't appear to be as many frightened investors as there ought to be. Much of this is just "will" anyway. At least as far as the stock market goes. If they see 20-30% unemp and think it's temporary then they will react in accordance with. Doesn't matter if they are wrong. If they are then there will be another turn later

"Investors" have nothing to do with it.
What you're seeing is there is no more market price discovery.
The Central Banks are buying so now it's "I'll have whatever she's having".
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i...ger-says-well-just-buy-whatever-central-banks

 

[atmsmshr]

Big and medium business survival mode has been something like:

- Pull the earnings forecast for next quarter and next year
- Draw down all available credit to raise cash
- Stop stock buybacks
- Employees 'work' from home
- Employee PPE for those working at location
- Furloughs and Layoffs
- Exec Pay cuts
- Mothball factories, airplanes, ships, oil rigs, hotels, amusement parks.
- Suspension of dividends
- Apply for government grants and loans
- Renegotiation of debt with banks
- Fight downgrades from ratings agencies
- Renegotiation of planned purchases with suppliers
- Renegotiation of leases / mortgages
- Plead with state governors to reopen asap
- Layoff everyone except skeleton crew
- Develop Public Safety plans to show how clean the business really is

Small businesses don't have as many levers to pull.

The stock market is shrugging all of this off. Irrational Exuberance?

 

[razztazz]

"Investors" have nothing to do with it.
What you're seeing is there is no more market price discovery.
The Central Banks are buying so now it's "I'll have whatever she's having".
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i...ger-says-well-just-buy-whatever-central-banks

Youre right. Investing/investor are not applicable. Buyers maybe...?

 

[Dtail]

I didn't say I believed it. I was just related what things appear to be doing out there. hence the ref to "The Money Centers." If you understood it you'd see I'm about where you are. I am in Cap-Pres mode because there's too much uncertainty. But there doesn't appear to be as many frightened investors as there ought to be. Much of this is just "will" anyway. At least as far as the stock market goes. If they see 20-30% unemp and think it's temporary then they will react in accordance with. Doesn't matter if they are wrong. If they are then there will be another turn later

Strange market indeed.
Conceptually, if the market believes there will be 30% unemployment and it turns out to be correct, then everything is good and the market stays calm.
But if it turns out to be 25% unemployment, then let's have a (social distancing) party and the market can keep going up.

 

[CaptTom]

I was wondering how much productivity is occurring with everyone working at home. Not suggesting that people are goofing off, but rather what value is actually being created.

I've worked from home a little, and had co-workers who did it all the time. I also worked closely with folks at our home office and other remote locations.

Overall, it works out OK. There is some value in being able to swing by to ask a question, or go out to lunch with a group from different departments. But in-person meetings are overrated. I think more gets done on a conference call or (to a lesser degree) video conference.

Some regular in-person contact really helps to cement inter-personal relationships. But it doesn't have to be every day. Some of my most productive working relationships were people I met when working for a few days at their office, then never or rarely saw in person again.

The stock market is shrugging all of this off. Irrational Exuberance?

Yeah, I'm wondering too. For some unexplained reason, I'm also dismissing all the predictions of doom and gloom. It almost seems like everyone is chomping at the bit to get back to work. The president certainly has a finger on this sentiment. I hope we don't give in to it too soon, and cause a second wave. But I just feel like, when we do get back to work, things will ramp up quickly.

 

[rayinpenn]

Is anyone else waiting for the shoe to drop?

Today’s big news flash: Another 5.5 million applied for unemployment insurance this week. A surprise no it shouldn’t be. I believe that more than 25% are actually unemployed. I further believe that even if they said ok go back to work tomorrow - many won’t have a job to go back to. I don’t believe restaurants, cruise lines, sporting events, summer rentals, airlines etc., will be enjoying a comeback any time soon.

It’s going to be painful for many...unsettling for me

 

[Chuckanut]

IMO, the other shoe is falling right now.

The second wave of layoffs is already rolling through the country. White collar people who previously have worked from home are being told there is not enough work to keep them employed - See Ya! The guys who pick up the trash from business are being told there is not enough trash being generated to keep them employed. Dental workers are suffering because we aren't getting our teeth cleaned. On and on it goes. This is going to be critical by June unless the the economy is opened up. I hope I am wrong. Very wrong.

 

[MichaelB]

Threads merged

 

[rayinpenn]

IMO, the other shoe is falling right now. ..... I hope I am wrong. Very wrong.

Chuck I agree with you but I believe people think stopping mandatory shut downs is an instant All Better button. I dont

 

[badatmath]

I was wondering how much productivity is occurring with everyone working at home. Not suggesting that people are goofing off, but rather what value is actually being created.
.

I get SO MUCH MORE DONE at home without all the noise and interruptions.

 

[gayl]

DGS got his CA unemployment response. Several errors:
1. Has him working part time
2. States not Covid related
3. Dropped his largest W2 from last year so sent them an email within his claim & they responded saying they aren't paying on 1099s.

He emailed again and the response was 'call us.' He can't get thru so sent a copy of his W2 in (no idea if they'll open it) and his employer has been all over the news for massive layoffs due to Covid-19 (so obviously not working PT).