Buckeye,
I would guess you will get two points of view on your question 'Do you think professional appraisals are valid for determining the price of home today?' My opinion is from the viewpoint of the appraiser. After retiring from the Air Force I joined my brother in the appraisal business, and just for your information, I am retired retired, and don't do appraisal any more.
Now to your question. Appraisals are about the closest you will get to the 'Market Value' of your home. In the 80's, due to problems with the appraisal industry, the government enacted new laws governing banks and appraisers. Most of these were aimed at insuring the independence of the appraiser. That is why, for loan purposes, your bank must engage the appraiser and not the property owner. In fact, a bank is not suppose to use an appraiser 'suggested' by the client. On the banking side the appraiser is suppose to be engaged by the underwriting side not the lending side of the bank. While folks think the bank wants a low appraisal, this was not what I found in my dealings. (I was the head of the appraisal department for one of the largest banks in CA.) We wanted an accurate value. If the value was two low we would not be able to make the loan, and the bank was in business to make loans. If it was too high the banks loan would not be covered. We made it clear we wanted an honest value, and would scratch appraisers from our list if they gave consistently low or high values.
Now to some of the problems the appraiser has. In residential appraising the Market Approach/Sales Comparison Approach is almost exclusive used (exception new construction). I have always that the Sales approach is somewhat of a lagging indicator as it depends on prior sales. Most institutions want to see sales within 6 months of the date of the appraisal. In a changing market value may increase or decrease during this time, however, for most purposes not enough to make a real difference. Next, adjustments to sales, i.e. there are not sales of comparable properties sold near you, is more of an art than a science. That is why there are three approaches to value, Cost, Income and Market. In the Cost approach the appraiser looks at what it would cost to by your land and build your home new, then he subtracts depreciation. The income approach looks at what other homes like yours are currently rented for and sold while rented. If you think it is difficult to find these sales, it is! And, this is why the income approach is seldome used in residential properties.
This was may have not answered your question, but in my opinion, yes, if you ask an appraiser to give you a value, you will get a gppd idea as to your properties value. Depending on the sales available, most will be within 5 to 10%. Now before the rath of examples where someone was 'screwed' by their appraiser, there will always be exceptions, and always be good and bad appraisers. Also your appraisal will be no better than the information provided/discovered in the market. Buy the way, if you sell your home below $270,000 and the appraisal will use your property as a comparable. If they don't know you were in a hurry to sell and take less than market for your home they will assume the market has dropped. If they have two sales at 270 and yours at 240 they will look for why your's sold less. If they don't talk to either you or your realtor, they will have to make assumptions. The may be right or may be wrong. In the current climate, most will assume that your home as the most recent sale represents a decline in the market.
