FinanceDude
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2006
- Messages
- 12,483
the monthly issue of my newsletter came out this morning and they have DJIA dividends going back almost 100 years as part of it.
The average since around 1900 has been above 3%. 2000 the DJIA was at around 1.5%. Last year's DJIA peaked at a 3% dividend yield which has been the peak at previous bear markets where stocks would lose value until dividends went up.
Average bear market bottom has been 6% to 7% dividend yield for the DJIA. 1932 was almost 15% dividend yield. some of the smaller bears have bottomed at 4% to 5% yield.
Historically the DJIA has peaked when the dividend yield fell to 3% so there is an argument that we can go lower or stay at this level for a long time until dividends go back up to historical averages
So our best hope to avoid the "bear trap" is to buy those contrarian stocks that are RAISING their dividend in a bear market. Some things never change, but luckily NOT everyone follows this approach........