I recall that you have other assets and income to assure a comfortable retirement, but just curious: how much (as a percentage of puchase price plus additions) do you think you'll net from the sale of your New Orleans house when the time comes? Will that number affect your plans in any way?
We're probably down about 15%. We are planning on a specific downsize premium that we'd add to our retirement nest egg. The remainder will be available for whatever housing choices we make at that time. Nice thing is that the taxes, insurance, and upkeep on a smaller place will be like increasing our after-tax income by a nice amount. Just don't know how much.
I bought my house in 2002. Based on information from realtors as well as on a weekly analysis that I do (of asking and selling prices of homes in my suburb and in my immediate neighborhood), I should get about 15% (+/- 3%) more for my house than I paid for it. That is roughly equivalent to maybe 2%/year appreciation - - not a great return, but given the Katrina catastrophe it is better than it could have been.
Appreciation was a lot higher from 2002-2005, about 8%/year, but now the selling price that I would expect is slightly less than it was worth in 2005 just before Katrina (no matter what the national media says - - there are many factors involved).
Frankly, if today somebody offered me 7% more than I paid for it in 2002 I would jump at it as I still would be making quite a bit of money compared with renting all this time. I am not looking forward to the expenses of fixing it up to sell it. Re-carpeting the entire house looks like a necessity. Ugh. And then I still have some minor repairs left over from Katrina and Gustav damage that will require a plumber ($$) and an electrician ($$) and so on. And then two big trees had to be removed, one after Katrina and the really big one after Gustav, and so I need to get a landscaper in there to improve my now-barer back yard.
If I can't sell it, that would affect my ER plans and Frank and I would move to "Plan B", which is to stay put. But the lack of house appreciation won't affect my ability to move and buy another home at all, and I will not need to dip into my nestegg, either. This magic is due to the fact that I am moving to an area with housing prices that are very, very low (not entirely by accident, as you can probably surmise).
So, if I sell my house for purchase price plus 7%, and buy a house that I like in Springfield, and subtract out closing costs, 6% realtor costs when I sell, and selling improvements such as the new carpet, I will still make money on it. Enough money to pay for a new car, my moving expenses (by rental truck), new furniture, a start on some renovations of my ER house (at least paint and a brush, but perhaps a little more), and six months in an apartment while I look for it.
Insurance will be lots less up there (no hurricanes) but property taxes are higher. So, taxes + insurance will be about the same. Even though it gets cold there, energy/utilities are lower in rate than down here so those bills may not be much more. I will be upsizing a little instead of downsizing, most likely, but it all depends on what individual house appeals to me most.