More on the Tesla electric car

[clifp]

Using a Tesla car would be a huge capital investment.

Can't you see a fleet of vehicles at SJC where using Uber you reserve one for a specific Silicon Valley address? I would LOVE that.

I am talking about the 3rd generation $35-$40K Tesla. You couldn't do it tell then because the self driving technology needs to get to a point where it only cost a couple of K and the insurance and regulatory issues are resolved.


Best case this is something in the next 5 years more realistically 10 years.

 

[Brat]

10 yrs, just about the time when a self driving car would be safest for me, and the community.

 

[ERD50]

I am talking about the 3rd generation $35-$40K Tesla. You couldn't do it tell then because the self driving technology needs to get to a point where it only cost a couple of K and the insurance and regulatory issues are resolved.


Best case this is something in the next 5 years more realistically 10 years.

But don't taxis put on ~ 80K miles/year? You'd burn through the battery warranty in less than two years? Maybe they would last longer - hybrid batteries seem to do pretty well so far. That would be extended with battery swap, but then you bought two batteries - all the same.

Or you might want a bit more than 2/car, so you can charge them all at night with cheaper rates?

-ERD50

 

[explanade]

I am talking about the 3rd generation $35-$40K Tesla. You couldn't do it tell then because the self driving technology needs to get to a point where it only cost a couple of K and the insurance and regulatory issues are resolved.


Best case this is something in the next 5 years more realistically 10 years.

Would that be the base price? I believe the model S starts around $80k but can easily be over $100k with the larger capacity battery.

The BMW i3 looks ugly and I wonder how much space there is on what looks like a squished SUV. Especially in the luggage compartment and the seats.

It starts out at around $40k but if it's like other BMWs, it would be available only with certain packages like NAV, Bluetooth, HID lights, etc. which would and well over $10k.

 

[clifp]

But don't taxis put on ~ 80K miles/year? You'd burn through the battery warranty in less than two years? Maybe they would last longer - hybrid batteries seem to do pretty well so far. That would be extended with battery swap, but then you bought two batteries - all the same.

Or you might want a bit more than 2/car, so you can charge them all at night with cheaper rates?

-ERD50

I'm figuring a roughly 15% increase in battery goodness per year. So double range in 5 years and double range 1/2 price in 10 years. So battery packs, for the smaller Gen 3 cars probably cost $10K has 300 mile range and 200K+ useful life miles and 2 per car. So that would be $40K+ 2* 10K = $60K and a life of 600K miles= $.10/mile fixed costs.

 

[ERD50]

I'm figuring a roughly 15% increase in battery goodness per year. So double range in 5 years and double range 1/2 price in 10 years. So battery packs, for the smaller Gen 3 cars probably cost $10K has 300 mile range and 200K+ useful life miles and 2 per car. So that would be $40K+ 2* 10K = $60K and a life of 600K miles= $.10/mile fixed costs.

I think that 15% may be aggressive. IIRC, I've seen numbers about half that. But we will see.

Here's an interesting article from a quick google:

Green Car Congress: Pike Research forecasts automotive Li-ion battery prices to drop by more than 1/3 by 2017

$523 per kilowatt hour in 2017 will be a critical step towards making PEVs cost-competitive with petroleum-powered vehicles.

and...

(In its 2009 forecast on EV batteries, Pike forecast that Li-ion prices would drop to $470 per kWh in 2015. Earlier post.)

So their more recent predictions for 2017 are more conservative than their earlier ones for 2015?

But fleets like this do offer so many more opportunities than the average family car. They put on lots of miles/year, so any savings/mile means faster payback. They can get economy of scale on charger installations, and share them across a few vehicles if charge time is fast enough. And they generally don't travel far from home-base, so with battery swap, range anxiety isn't a big issue. And the technology gets wrung out and tested much faster.

This applies to some of the competition for EVs too. CNG is pretty easy with a home-base fill station. Lots of possibilities.

We will have to wait and see. Tag this thread for 2018?


-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

Would that be the base price? I believe the model S starts around $80k but can easily be over $100k with the larger capacity battery.

Base price is $71k for the Model S, 81k for the larger battery pack.
If you need more performance than the 85kWh pack gives you there is the performance edition.
Performance edition plus extras can get you over 100k. Subtract $7500 from the above prices for the tax rebate if you can use it.

Base price of the third gen is targeting 35k without subsidies.

 

[clifp]

Just in case there wasn't enough good news about the car..
Elon personally worked on this press release touting the Model S as the safest car ever tested.

Of note, during validation of Model S roof crush protection at an independent commercial facility, the testing machine failed at just above 4 g's. While the exact number is uncertain due to Model S breaking the testing machine, what this means is that at least four additional fully loaded Model S vehicles could be placed on top of an owner's car without the roof caving in. This is achieved primarily through a center (B) pillar reinforcement attached via aerospace grade bolts.

I don't know about Zathras, but for me my new car was going to be either Model S or Volvo station wagon, safety first

 

[Zathras]

Safety is always good, especially for a newcomer to the auto industry.

One of my favorite parts was this:

The Model S was also substantially better in rollover risk, with the other top vehicles being approximately 50 percent worse. During testing at an independent facility, the Model S refused to turn over via the normal methods and special means were needed to induce the car to roll. The reason for such a good outcome is that the battery pack is mounted below the floor pan, providing a very low center of gravity, which simultaneously ensures exceptional handling and safety.

This is one of the reasons why engineering an EV from the ground up is such an advantage.

 

[ERD50]

Just in case there wasn't enough good news about the car..

...

OK, OK, we get it, the Tesla is a great car.

Now, can Elon get to work on that Hyper-Loop?

(BTW, that's all good-natured kidding in case it didn't come across that way in print!)

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Any updates from the Tesla owners here? How's it going?

Have they resolved the phantom/vampire power issue? I'd be curious if you have been able to measure actual power from the wall versus miles (IIRC, the car only reports power drawn from the battery, not the wall?).

-ERD50

 

[clifp]

The short answer is not really. They have a new firmware which is suppose to put the car to deep sleep and reduce vampire loss by more than 1/2 . But it is still in beta, and I talked to a service guys and he couldn't tell when it will be available generally

It is actually a source of some annoyance on my part. I sized my solar system based on several assumption and instead of have a $17 bill I am seeing $50 and $60.

The EPA estimate is based on roughly 280 watts/mile. On my rare 20+ mile trips to the other end of the island at 65 MPH I am actually getting that type of efficiency.
However in my case I take short trips 5 miles or so and all of my trips start at 1100' end up at sea level and then go back up the steep hill. So I am actually get 350 watts/mile. To be fair I recover about 1/2 the energy going down hilll which an ICE doesn't do. It is conceivable that upon a rare occasion I may accelerate in an energy inefficient manner

Still I am only driving 600 miles/month 20/day. In examining my solar logs it is pretty clear that Vampire loss is real (8-10 miles/day = ~3KWH) At $.35 Khw that is $1 a day not the end of the world. One guy on the forums was saying he was see 470 watt/mile from plug to wheel, certainly no where to close the 90 MPGe.

Other than that car is still a joy to drive. It attracts a crowd even though they are getting common place in Hawaii ~150 in Oahu. I simply love having the internet everywhere, where is the nearest xyz store, location pops on the screen and you click call to find if they have what you need.
Plus while I am complaining about how long the next upgrade is taking the cool thing is I don't need to visit a dealer to get it.

 

[Zathras]

New deliveries are coming with 5.0. From what I have read Vampire loss is cut in about half. The plan is to have it virtually eliminated by the end of the year.

From what I have experienced, if you average 280 Watts/Mile you will get well above the EPA range. I believe that an average of 305 Watts/Mile will get you pretty close to the EPA range.

And yes, short trips are definitely less efficient. Although your short trips are still more efficient than my medium trips in January (in Minnesota)

ERD, anything in particular as far as updates you are looking for?

In short, I am still loving the car after a year and about 18,000 miles. Those 18,000 miles have cost me about $400 in electricity.

The car is as much a pleasure to drive as the first day I drove it.

Supercharger stations are being worked on in Eau Claire, Albert Lea and Worthington. Once completed in 2-3 months we will no longer need gas for our 2-3 trips a year.

 

[samclem]

Trouble in Teslaland. This might be the time for "true believers" to buy stock. It is down about 10% over the last two days, but has been rising overall for months. I'd certainly consider the buy "speculative."

CNN Money: Tesla Stock continues to fall

Reasons: Poor analyst report and a recent fiery crash. Conventional IC cars catch fire, too, so maybe too much is being made of this.

What the firefighters below are saying:
"You touch it first."
"No, you touch it first."
"But my feet are in water"
"Mine, too. You don't have any kids, you open the door."
"Here comes Bill. Tell him this is an Austin Martin. Let's see if he'll open the door."
"There's a lot of nasty-smelling lithium smoke here. As far as damage to the environment, I wonder how many millions of miles of conventional driving that equates to?"
"Here's Bill. Act like nothing's wrong"

 

[Fermion]

Musk tweeted plans to have a fire station built within 20 miles of every Tesla.

 

[easysurfer]

If Dick Van Dyke thought about getting a Telsa to replace his Jag that caught fire, I bet he won't anymore

 

[braumeister]

Interesting bit in the paper today about Tesla at 5% of the total car market in Norway. Several big advantages over there, both in VAT and fuel savings.

 

[Fermion]

It said something in that article like the tax incentive was over $7000 A YEAR!

I could sell a $20,000 smartphone if I could provide those kind of incentives.

 

[samclem]

Musk tweeted plans to have a fire station built within 20 miles of every Tesla.

He'll build them if the municipalities will fill them with his $10 million Tesla firetrucks.

 

[travelover]

I think that it is only news because it is new technology. A few years back I was driving a new conventional car and a rock flipped up and punctured the plastic fuel line (which is pressurized from the fuel pump in the gas tank). I smelled gas and when I looked underneath, there was a spray like from an aerosol can coming off the fuel line onto the underside of the car, including the exhaust. Luckily, it didn't light off, but it could easily have done so.

Summary: Yawn.

 

[yakers]

The EPA estimate is based on roughly 280 watts/mile. On my rare 20+ mile trips to the other end of the island at 65 MPH I am actually getting that type of efficiency.
However in my case I take short trips 5 miles or so and all of my trips start at 1100' end up at sea level and then go back up the steep hill. So I am actually get 350 watts/mile. To be fair I recover about 1/2 the energy going down hilll which an ICE doesn't do. It is conceivable that upon a rare occasion I may accelerate in an energy inefficient manner

That is really efficient, my Ford Focus Electric has averaged 257 watts/mile for the last 3 months, about 600 miles a month. But this is a lighter car and although it drives as fast as an ICE Focus I assume the Tesla is driven in a more sprightly manner

The local municipal utility has pretty good rates, I have a TOU meter and over the last 11 months I calculate equivalent electric charges to 100 to 110 MPG at home. Only use commercial charging occasionally and that brings down the MPGe,. $1.13 added 16 miles recently, since gas locally is $4 gal that works out to 60 MPGe. What is the charging rate for the superfast Tesla chargers?

 

[ERD50]

I think that it is only news because it is new technology. ....

Summary: Yawn.

That was my take on it when I saw this earlier. Conventional cars burn up too, is this really out of the ordinary?

But, I do have some questions. Just how limited are the fire-fighters? Three-to-four hundred volts is dangerous. Does it make handling these problems significantly different?

And what about the environmental impact? Sure, 12 gallons of gas burning uncontrolled is not good, but it doesn't seem to be too big a deal. But what about a 55 kWh battery pack burning up? What nasties does that release?

In a similar vein, there have been reports going around about the dangers of fighting fires in buildings with solar panels on them. At first I figured those were hack pieces written for the green skeptics, but they made some interesting points. You can't just turn them off (like cutting power and gas to a building at the meter), they produce power at each panel. They said that even at night, the lighting they use could create problems. That seemed a stretch, but maybe not - a solar panel will produce near full voltage with only a little light, it just won't be able to deliver much current. But it does not take a lot of current to electrocute someone. And a firefighter can't know what the load is on these things.

I wonder if this will drive up insurance costs on large solar installations?

-ERD50

 

[JOHNNIE36]

travelover, this very thing is what happened with the Tesla "S" fire. Read in the paper this morning that the vehicle struck an object lying in the road and somehow got to the batteries. They will be all over that situation like white on rice to come up a guard against things like that.

 

[samclem]

They said that even at night, the lighting they use could create problems. That seemed a stretch, but maybe not - a solar panel will produce near full voltage with only a little light, it just won't be able to deliver much current.

It seems like a stretch. If we start with the wattage of the firetruck lights, then reduce for their efficiency (electric watts to light watts), then figure only a small % of that, will actually strike a panel, then reduce a considerable amount for reflection loss due to the highly oblique angle of incidence in this case, and finally reduce for the very low efficiencies of these panels, it doesn't seem likely the typical residential installation would produce much juice under typical circumstances.

 

[travelover]

travelover, this very thing is what happened with the Tesla "S" fire. Read in the paper this morning that the vehicle struck an object lying in the road and somehow got to the batteries. They will be all over that situation like white on rice to come up a guard against things like that.

I guess I was unclear. My point was that road debris can kick up and cause a fire in a conventional car, too.