Preparing for Another Hurricane in Good Ol' Fla.

[RAE]

Uh, Dorian isn't over yet. Don't think anyone in the Carolinas is putting their guard away.

Oh, I know. I was replying to YakGrl's comment that South Florida may now be basically in the clear.

 

[imoldernu]

Granted that forecasting is difficult, but some things should be obvious.

Today we are seeing outlines of the Bahamas, before and then after the storm. First pictures from above that were clear, showing the land before the storm, and now, after, with the flooding.

Nothing at all about the details on the news, or the weather channels until today, showing the flooding.

I just wonder what they expected.

Here's what I wrote in the morning three days ago... info from a basic website about the Bahamas.
........................................................................................................

The high point is 206 above sea level. 80% of the islands have an elevation of less than three feet above sea level... (coral ridges, lagoons)

Storm surge estimates 15 to 30 feet...

Did you know? Better still... did any of the TV news programs know?
...........................................................................................................

So the question is, who knew? This was the very beginning of the storm, when it was still possible to deliver supplies, to overfly and drop supplies, to put into some action to tell people to go to the highest places for safety.

The news stations focused on the U.S.coast....

Now the question is, with such awful devastation.... how many of the 395,000 people are homeless. Where will they go? And... looking at the pictures of such devastation, it looks as if the rebuilding could take years, and for some, probably never.

I know that some here disagree with what I believe, but putting myself in the position of a Bahamian native, total heartbreak.
....................................................................................................
And... on the subject of forecasting,

SOMEONE had to know... now... with literally millions of Floridians having been ordered or recommended to evacuate.... literally billions and billions of costs... "in an abundance of caution"...
Do you know what Mandatory evacuation means? Oh? Really?

Do we really believe that the thousands of persons who work in meteorology
have developed the technology to "predict"?

In any case... would it be prudent to share more of the information available and to assay and quantify the "risk factor"?

I still have questions...

Trust in God... all other pay cash.

If no one complains, nothing changes.

 

[MichaelB]

If I eat all of my hurricane snacks, I'll do more damage to my body than a direct hit by a major hurricane - go figure.

I understand completely, my daughter expressed a similar thought.

 

[RAE]

There is some video taken today of Marsh Harbour, Abaco, now on the Weather Channel. Here is the link, for those interested. It's devastating.........every bit as bad as the early reports indicated. My heart goes out to the people on those northern Bahama islands. I don't know how you recover from this kind of destruction.



https://weather.com/news/news/2019-...es-bahamas-five-dead-distress-calls-overwhelm

 

[Lewis Clark]

If I eat all of my hurricane snacks, I'll do more damage to my body than a direct hit by a major hurricane - go figure.

Yeah, maybe .... but it will be oh so enjoyable. : )

 

[Dtail]

If I eat all of my hurricane snacks, I'll do more damage to my body than a direct hit by a major hurricane - go figure.

I can't let the Oreos go to waste. Everything else was fairly healthy.

 

[GrayHare]

Do we really believe that the thousands of persons who work in meteorology
have developed the technology to "predict"?

Apparently whoever ordered the evacuation, local govt I suppose, did not believe the forecast that the storm would not come ashore in Florida. Only in hindsight do we know that forecast was accurate and unnecessary evacuation could have been avoided.

 

[Aerides]

Apparently whoever ordered the evacuation, local govt I suppose, did not believe the forecast that the storm would not come ashore in Florida. Only in hindsight do we know that forecast was accurate and unnecessary evacuation could have been avoided.

Even the best predictions have a margin of error, and 50 miles is make or break down by the coast. Heck, a storm that stays keeps 100 mph winds offshore vs. even having them come in 2 miles is the difference between displacing/risking hundreds of thousands of folks, or not.

And this time it was really close, then it was...eh probably not...then...oh um wait maybe...hmm....ok really no we're clear.

I'm glad that local officials err on the side of mobilizing and disruption vs. the alternative. The only worry is that next time some of these same people may be less likely to move.

This one ended up being another drill, but they are good to have every now and then, as we always come up with something new to add to our prep/check for the next time around...and there is always a next time.

 

[Lewis Clark]

The people who provide weather information to the public have a more difficult job than most people appreciate. When severe weather is likely then the warnings and watches must be issued with enough emphasis to make people actually take them seriously. They are never intending to create panic but sometimes people panic anyway.

As we all know, our ability to predict storm movements and storm development is far from perfect. If alerting the public is to be useful, the alerts must be given early enough to allow people to evacuate or take other appropriate precautions. On the other hand, the farther in advance that we are making the forecast in issuing the alert, the more likely it is that the actual weather will be different from the forecast. In some cases the actual weather will be more severe. In other cases the hazard of interest will not develop at all in a particular location.

In addition to giving alerts early enough to be useful, the geographic coverage of the alert is often wider than the area expected to be influenced by the storm. Again, this is because our forecasting ability is far from perfect. Forecasters an emergency managers have to strike a balance between wanting all the people who need to be warned so they can take appropriate precautions, without trying to "over warn" by too much. When people get warned about hazards that failed to materialize, they tend to take future warnings less seriously. A good example is the experience from Hurricane Sandy back in 2012. Many of the people who lived along the coastline and on barrier islands along the coastlines of New Jersey and Long Island chose to ignore mandatory evacuation orders because they had been ordered to evacuate in the past and nothing ever happened. Most of these people were sorry they ignored the evacuation orders when they were living through the worst of the storm.

Forecasters and emergency managers routinely stress being prepared in advance with the necessary emergency supplies, but many people ignore this advice. These are the people who are racing to the stores to stock up on food, beverages and other supplies at the last minute. In my family, my wife and I stock up on emergency supplies including food and water in the late spring every year before the beginning of hurricane season. We eat down some of the perishable items over the winter and then stock up again the following year. This way, we are always prepared with food that has not spoiled.

Making the decision on which regions to post watches and warnings, and when these should be posted, is usually very difficult. Emergency managers are trying to strike an appropriate balance between public safety and minimizing the economic impact. Unfortunately, these two goals are often mutually exclusive. Emergency managers usually tend to err on the side of caution, which is appropriate in my opinion.

 

[Bestwifeever]

I don't think any of the resorts mentioned in the article are on either the Abacos or Grand Bahama. Those islands were devastated by Dorian. I don't think the tourism business on Abacos or Grand Bahama will be viable for quite some time.

Of course, but it is hopeful, at least to me, for the country in general that the biggest tourist resorts are not affected and that they are already reaching out to the hardest hit islands.

 

[Moemg]

I thought this hurricane would never move past us . That is when I relax until the next one .

 

[Scuba]

Not to say that the damage to parts of the Bahamas isn’t horrific, but the Bahamas is a relatively wealthy country. In contrast, the USVI were hit very hard by Irma and Maria in 2017, but because of the significantly higher populations of Puerto Rico and Florida, the USVI got little media coverage. Two years later, the effects of these storms are still hurting the economy of these islands, and most major resorts have still not reopened. Might want to consider directing some donation dollars there.

 

[Scuba]

Here is an article with a few photos of what St. Thomas & St. John looked like after Irma, a Cat 5 hurricane, hit them in 2017. Thirteen days later, Maria which was another Cat 5, hit the USVI & Puerto Rico. We did hurricane relief work after Irma & Maria in the USVI and it really was this bad.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/15/us/virgin-islands-photos-irma.html

 

[Badger]

Sitting here this morning in the dark and looking out the window. The winds are beginning to pick up. Palm trees are bending and the street and lawns have been blown free of debris. We will see how the wind picks up in a hour or so. With this slow moving storm we should be finished with the highest winds and rain in about 15+ hours. With a little luck the rain won't be bad enough to saturate the ground so that the water comes up through the floor ducts and flood the house. That has happened a few times over the years of hurricanes and nor'easters. Our street is very wide and in a direct line to the ocean a couple of blocks away so the wind will come down the street to us without obstruction.

This old concrete block house has survived since 1955 and with a fairly new metal roof sealed on all the edges I should be good. In the past 10+ years almost all the old ranch style block houses have been torn down and replace with multi story McMansions so at least they will block some of the wind. A few windows facing the ocean have some boards for a little protection. I just hope nothing gets airborn and flies through any of the others.

If the electricity goes out it is going to get "muggy" and hot. I froze as much water as there was space in the refrigerator and put a coin on the top of one short ice block. If the ice melts and I find the coin on the bottom even if the water is frozen I will know the power went out long enough for everything to defrost and to be careful of food spoilage. I'll eat the ice cream first. I also have my 3 new 5 gallon buckets for water it they are needed.

All set as best as possible. I have been through more of these than fingers on my hands but each one has been different so you never know. Hope everyone along the coast is safe. I don't think this one will be too bad as long as it doesn't wobble west.



Cheers!

 

[atmsmshr]

Via news releases and text alerts Indian River county emergency management lifted the mandatory evacuation order of the coast yesterday at noon. Dorian was still a bit south of Vero Beach so we were a bit surprised but packed up from our friends house and went home. Water was very high in the intracoastal but no flooding. No sign of waves breaching the dunes for our 10mile drive home on A1A. Everyone's homes looked good and we still had power.

Last evening the strongest gusts came through with clouds quickly rotating counter clockwise. Rain bands were interesting patterns, but nothing like the sideways rain of hurricane eye wall winds. Temperature dropped to 79 degrees as Dorian drained the ocean energy through latent heat of vaporization. Today will be moderate while I help others pull down shutters. Tomorrow will be hot and humid.

So glad the storm has slowed and hopefully it will stay off the eastern coast without landfall.

 

[Pellice]

In any case... would it be prudent to share more of the information available and to assay and quantify the "risk factor"?

I still have questions...

Trust in God... all other pay cash.

If no one complains, nothing changes.

The information IS widely available, for free, online. The raw data from most of the models is available online. There are websites (American Weather Forums is one) where amateurs and professionals parse every dropsonde virtually as it transmits data. The Tropical Tidbits website really draws together mountains of models. The US's National Weather Service has unbelievable amounts of information once you really dig into the site - and it's all available to us because we taxpayers support it. (Don't EVER let private companies monopolize weather data!!)

There is a vast network of weather hobbyists who will offer up every possible interpretation. I personally thought the official forecasts were fairly accurate within a three day window.

 

[JoeWras]

Even the best predictions have a margin of error, and 50 miles is make or break down by the coast. Heck, a storm that stays keeps 100 mph winds offshore vs. even having them come in 2 miles is the difference between displacing/risking hundreds of thousands of folks, or not.

That's why there is a cone. For the error.

The error this time was east. It isn't always that way.

2 years ago Irma blew out the early error cone and went way west. In the early stages it was supposed to be an east coast FL event. It ended up being a west coast FL event.

 

[JoeWras]

SOMEONE had to know... now... with literally millions of Floridians having been ordered or recommended to evacuate.... literally billions and billions of costs... "in an abundance of caution"...
Do you know what Mandatory evacuation means? Oh? Really?
...
If no one complains, nothing changes.

Here's the problem... Hurricanes are not new. They have been here for millennia. There was a reason The Bahamas and all the east coast barrier islands were virtually unpopulated until the early 1900s: storms.

Add Air Conditioning and a low cycle of hurricane activity from the late 60s through the early 90s, and people forget. They want to move to paradise.

Part of the price of paradise -- low, flat strips of sand on the ocean -- means evacuations and destruction.

Sorry about the cost. It is the cost of paradise.

You want change? Move everyone off these islands and open them up as nature sanctuaries.

 

[Amethyst]

+100

Here's the problem... Hurricanes are not new. They have been here for millennia. There was a reason The Bahamas and all the east coast barrier islands were virtually unpopulated until the early 1900s: storms.

Add Air Conditioning and a low cycle of hurricane activity from the late 60s through the early 90s, and people forget. They want to move to paradise.

Part of the price of paradise -- low, flat strips of sand on the ocean -- means evacuations and destruction.

Sorry about the cost. It is the cost of paradise.

.

 

[Amethyst]

OK, different but related:

Our home was under an evacuation order for a while. The "all clear" has been given, and we want to return home. We are in NC.

Obviously, this is not safe while Dorian still lashes the southeast coastline.

Once that's over, is there a resource we can consult to find out if areas of I-95 are flooded/undriveable?

Thanks,

Amethyst

 

[ShokWaveRider]

SWR AccuWeather Update from NE FLA.

So far so good, eye is parallel to Daytona Beach and coming our way today.

We slept pretty well, there were gusts on the First Coast to 63 mph. Bridges now closed and we are isolated from the mainland.

The SWR Accuweather current view (by looking out the window) shows lots of palm shoes all over the place, and the palms outside our place bending a bit. Lakes have not crested yet but are almost at their banks. Not as much rain yet but that is to come. Seems relatively docile at the moment. Today will be our worst day.

Over to Badger in JAX

 

[Lewis Clark]

Once that's over, is there a resource we can consult to find out if areas of I-95 are flooded/undriveable?

Do you have a smart phone with GPS? Or access to Google maps? Driving directions from these sources should route you around road closures and traffic.

 

[gerntz]

Not to say that the damage to parts of the Bahamas isn’t horrific, but the Bahamas is a relatively wealthy country. In contrast, the USVI were hit very hard by Irma and Maria in 2017, but because of the significantly higher populations of Puerto Rico and Florida, the USVI got little media coverage. Two years later, the effects of these storms are still hurting the economy of these islands, and most major resorts have still not reopened. Might want to consider directing some donation dollars there.

Per capita incomes:

USA: $60K

Bahamas: $30K

USVI: $35K

Puerto Rico: $25K

 

[RAE]

Not to say that the damage to parts of the Bahamas isn’t horrific, but the Bahamas is a relatively wealthy country. In contrast, the USVI were hit very hard by Irma and Maria in 2017, but because of the significantly higher populations of Puerto Rico and Florida, the USVI got little media coverage. Two years later, the effects of these storms are still hurting the economy of these islands, and most major resorts have still not reopened. Might want to consider directing some donation dollars there.

I would never minimize the damage the USVI experienced from Irma and Maria in 2017, as I know it was bad. And I'm sure their economy is still hurting, and will be hurting for some time to come. But no place I'm aware of has experienced anything quite like the northern Bahama Islands just experienced - a Cat. 5 hurricane sitting directly on top of you for almost 48 hours, wind gusts to 220 mph, storm surges of 23 feet (with waves on top of that). And they got 24-30 inches of rain also. Most of Grand Bahama Island is only 15 feet above sea level, and I believe the maximum elevation is only about 30 feet above sea level. So most of the island was/is several feet under water. It's just unprecedented destruction. I don't know how many years it will take to recover from this.

 

[JoeWras]

Once that's over, is there a resource we can consult to find out if areas of I-95 are flooded/undriveable?

The official resources:
NC: https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/
SC: https://www.scdot.org/travel/travel-road.aspx

My guess, based on many past hurricanes and the predicted path and speed of the storm, is that in NC flooding is not expected on I-95. This is good compared to the week long closure last year.

However, both NC and SC have experienced fallen trees on I-95 in the past. The good news here is that tends to be a day or even 1/2 day event as the respective DOTs clear them out really fast.

You may also have to be aware of power outages at certain exits (no gas).

Do you have a smart phone with GPS? Or access to Google maps? Driving directions from these sources should route you around road closures and traffic.

This is a good idea, with a caveat. Last year, Google was about 1 day behind on everything. Once they got the memo, they directed people per the state's suggestions -- which for I-95 were really important. The delay in updating the the road closure status was worst on smaller roads. It took 1 1/2 days for them to get the closure on the road near us, and then 1 day after to clear the closure.